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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : Demography & International Migrations
New Trends in Italian Immigration Policies: ‘To change everything in order to keep everything the same’ (ARI) ARI 161/2008 - 9/12/2008 Claudia Finotelli and Giuseppe Sciortino This ARI looks at the recent developments in Italian immigration policies carried out in 2008 by the conservative government of Silvio Berlusconi.
Les immigrés en France et en Grande-Bretagne : leçons pour l’Espagne (ARI) ARI 160/2008 - 05/12/2008 Daniele Joly Des émeutes graves ont embrasé les banlieues françaises en automne 2005, à l’image de celles qui avaient secoué la Grande-Bretagne vingt ans auparavant. Cet article examine comment tirer les leçons de cette expérience pour l’Espagne. (Text in French)
Remittances for Development?: A Case Study of the Impact of Remittances on Human Development in Ecuador 12/9/2008 FLACSO-Elcano Royal Institute This paper analyses the impact of remittances on a set of human development variables in Ecuador. It is focused on education and health indicators, as well on some other consumption variables. Prepared by Juan Ponce (Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales – FLACSO, Ecuador) and Iliana Olivié (Elcano Royal Institute’s Senior Analyst on International Cooperation and Development), the study was presented in two workshops held at the Elcano Royal  Institute (Madrid) and at CIDOB (Barcelona) on 3 and 5 June 2008, respectively. It was also presented on 10 June in a specific session on Remittances held at the World Bank’s 2008 ABCDE in Cape Town (South Africa).
In Spain's interest: A Committed Foreign Policy (Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2008 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero An address by the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE. (This text is also available in French: Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée).
The new Eastern border of Schengen area and the irregular immigration into and from Poland (ARI) ARI 49/2008 -12/5/2008 Krystyna Iglicka Poland has been forced to design a stricter migratory regime firstly for EU accession and secondly, for entering Schengen espace. Since December 2007 Polish eastern frontier (stretching across 1,200 kilometres from the Baltic to the Carpathians) has become one of the few points in Europe at which it is possible to control human spatial mobility on the east-west axis.
Pateras, cayucos and Cross-border Mafias in Africa: Profiting from the Atlantic Routes to the Canary Islands (ARI) ARI 14/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/3/2008 Francisco Javier Vélez Alcalde This ARI describes the criminal business of profiting from the Atlantic routes of illegal immigration to the Canary Islands.
The parabolic method for the allotment of seats in the European Parliament among Member States of the European Union (ARI) ARI 63/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/7/2007 Victoriano Ramírez González This analysis proposes a method for the objective and fair distribution of the seats in the European Parliament among all European Union Member States.
Immigration: World Differences (ARI) ARI 47/2007 - 19/4/2007 Rickard Sandell This analysis focuses on some of the existing strategically important differences in global immigration.
The Flu Pandemic: A Global Threat ARI 44/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 3.5.2006 Ricard V. Solé Few viruses have claimed so many victims in the past as influenza. The possibility of a new pandemic has created a more than justified alarm both socially and in terms of its possible impact on the world’s economies
Remittances can Reduce Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa (ARI) ARI 136/2005 (Translation from Spanish) - 1/12/2005 Íñigo Moré The impact on Africa of remittances from migrants has a greater dimension and transcendence than anywhere else in the world. This is due to both the characteristics of the remittances and the particular conditions of the continent. Accordingly, these flows are the most forceful weapon with which to reduce poverty in the region, but their impact on development is weaker in Africa than in any other region.
Were they Pushed or Did they Jump? The Rise in Sub-Saharan Immigration ARI 133/2005 - 3.11.2005 Rickard Sandell Spanish immigration is changing. In the year 2000 60% of the stock of Spanish immigrants was made up of people from other EU countries (40%) and from Magreb countries (20%). In 2005 the share of immigrants from EU and Maghreb countries was down to 35% of the total stock of immigrants (20 % EU countries and 15 % Magreb countries), and this despite the recent EU enlargement. The largest changes are due to the extraordinary upsurge of Latin American immigration, up from 20 to 40 % of the total stock of immigrants in Spain
On the Problems and Strategies of Fighting Pandemics in Light of the 2005 Avian Flu ARI 132/2005 - 3.11.2005 Christofer Edling and Fredrik Liljeros This analysis focuses on the importance of implementing a strategy for combating contagious diseases that takes into consideration the patterns of human interaction when trying to fight a pandemic in modern society
Spain’s Quest for Regular Immigration (ARI) - Rickard Sandell ARI 64/2005 - 18.5.2005 Rickard Sandell The result of the recent extraordinary regularization campaign suggests that Spanish immigration policies have been extremely inefficient in the past four years. The present analysis tries to quantify the magnitude of the failure as well as identifying ways to prevent the problem of irregular immigration from occurring again in the future.
Spain’s Population: The Bigger the Better? Ways of Guessing the Future ARI 58/2005 - 9.5.2005 Rickard Sandell On March 16 the European Commission published a Green Paper on confronting demographic change. This analysis contrasts the findings of the Green Paper with the population data produced by Spain’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Its main purpose is to analyse the differences between the population forecasts of the two institutions. The result is then used to open a debate about defining an immigration target that is both acceptable to Spanish public opinion and that fulfils the country’s socio-economic immigration needs
Redefining National Boundaries: Changing Relations Between Diasporas and Latin American States (ARI) ARI 16/2005 - 3.2.2005 Rodolfo de la Garza and Jerónimo Cortina Primarily because of greatly increased immigration from Latin America, Latin American States are developing new relationships that emphasise immigrant concerns such as protecting immigrant rights, providing them assistance with a wide range of problems and supporting community-sponsored cultural activities. Governments are also working with their émigrés to mobilise them into lobbies that will act to advance home-country interests and to increase the sums emigrants remit to their home countries
Geopolitical implications of the Darfur conflict ARI Nº 141/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 20.9.2004 Carlos Ruiz Miguel The origins of the genocide in Darfur (50,000 killed, 1,200,000 displaced and 200,000 refugees in Chad, according to estimates) and the responses to it involve factors both internal and external to Sudan. The balance of interests in play are interfering with this tragedy, making it much more difficult to solve
Renegotiating the Nice Agreement: Spain in the European Parliament ARI Nº 105/2004 - 28.5.2004 Rickard Sandell This paper looks at the distribution of relative voting power in the European Parliament. It also explains why it is important for Spain to insist on defending its interests in the constitutional proposal for new voting procedures in the European Council
Benchmarks for Maximizing Spain’s Power Potential in the EU: The Implications of Assigning Voting Power Based on Real Population Size ARI Nº 72/2004 - 19.4.2004 Rickard Sandell This analysis provides an assessment of the optimal voting threshold for Spain in the likely event that the Nice treaty is abandoned for a system in which voting power in the European Union is decided by real population size.
Securitizing Migration after 11 March ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003 James C. Ross This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid
Confronting the Population Gravity Shift: Changes in the World Order? ARI Nº21/2004 - 17.2.2004 Rickard Sandell This analysis focuses on the potential shift in power relations as a result of the world’s changing demographic landscape, and how this is likely to influence the European outlook on the future
The demographic obstacles to military recruitment: benchmarks for preserving the numerical strength of the armed forces ARI Nº 135/2003 - 19.11.2003 Rickard Sandell The purpose of this analysis is to trigger a debate on the numerical strength of the Spanish armed forces. I present some dramatic demographic developments and show how they are likely to affect the numerical strength of the armed forces in the future. I show that on the basis of the performance of recruitment in 2001 and 2002 the Spanish armed forces are at risk of decreasing by 1,000 soldiers per year as a result of the country’s unfavourable demographic development. If this prediction is confirmed, the implication could be that the armed forces would consist of 62.000 soldiers in 2010 and 52.000 soldiers in 2020. The analysis shows that to overcome these demographic developments the only solution is to have a recruitment success rate of 2.5 ‰ of those aged 18-28 as a benchmark for future recruitment efforts.
European enlargement: pitfalls and remedies to avoid excess westbound emigration ARI Nº 109/2003 - 18.9.2003 Rickard Sandell Labour migration can be conceived of as a decision motivated by economic incentives at both the points of origin and destination. There are fears that the significant economic differences between Eastern and Western Europe might lead to a large-scale wave of emigration as ten new countries enter the EU in 2004. This analysis confirms that the fears are not unfounded. However, it also shows that large-scale emigration can be avoided if economic differences are reduced
Globalization and Infectious Diseases ARI Nº 70/2003 - 8.5.2003 David Alonso In an ever more connected and interdependent world, the outbreak of an infectious disease in one country could actually become a health emergence of concern for the entire world. The following analysis assesses the potential risk of several emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. The analysis gives as a conclusion a list of actions to be adopted in order to prevent, control and minimize such an increasing threat
The Ageing of the Population (part I): Scope and Future Outlook in Spain ARI Nº 64/2003 - 22.4.2003 Rickard Sandell Spain is in the middle of a demographic transition that is characterized by a rapid ageing of its population. Contrary to what many people may believe the ageing of the population is not a phenomenon influencing only the older age groups of society. Ageing occurs across all age groups, and will influence how Spanish welfare and state financed services are provided across all age groups
Positioning for a post war intervention: the role of Spain ARI Nº 47/2003 - 13.3.2003 Rickard Sandell This analysis focuses on the potential role of Spain in the event of a war against Iraq. Being an advocator of military intervention comes with a set of responsibilities to the Iraqi population, particularly after a military intervention. The analysis points out some of the weaknesses for building sustainable peace after a military intervention, and indicates areas where Spain could play an important role in a post war Iraq.
The humanitarian battle in Iraq ARI Nº 41/2003 - 28.2.2003 Rickard Sandell The recent debate over war or no war in Iraq has focused on the humanitarian aspects, and the additional human hardship of a possible intervention. The main argument is: forcing Iraq to disarm using military force over available peaceful means would worsen the conditions for the already suffering Iraqi people, and tens of thousand innocent people would die. This analysis aims at clarifying the Iraqi people’s current situation. While it was a high-risk enterprise, the Gulf War has proven less lethal for Iraq’s population than the peaceful resolutions UN has been enforcing since the cease-fire. The analysis assesses the reason for this unfortunate development, and tries to establish in what way the peace agreement backfired. The analysis suggests that the International Community has reached a point where it face no other alternative than to set a time limit for its current choice of policy.
Europe’s population: The latest trends and their policy implications ARI Nº 32/2003 - 14.2.2003 Rickard Sandell Europe’s population: The latest trends and their policy implications - Rickard Sandell ARI Nº 32/2003 - 14.2.2003 Europe’s demographic landscape is in constant change. The present analysis takes stock of the latest comparative data for the European Union, released in January 2003. It assesses the main demographic and migratory trends in Europe, and concludes by discussing population policy areas of central importance for Spain.
Iraqi Forced Population Movements ARI Nº 8-2003 - 21.1.2003 Rickard Sandell Iraq has a long history of forced population movements. The present analysis is concerned with the current magnitude of these movements and their causes. Also in focus are the potential population movements in the event of an armed conflict on Iraq territory.
The Dilemma of the Kurdish Opposition in Iraq ARI Nº 99-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) Manuel Martorell The Kurdish opposition forces, which have governed an independent state "de facto" in the mountainous area in Northern Iraq since the end of the Golf War, have been called to play a significant role in the new crisis that has blown up between Saddam Hussein and the United States. The current international situation has positioned the two main organisations -the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)- in a situation where they may risk their control over Iraqi Kurdistan, by joining the North American stance.
The Sahara Issue and the Stability of Morocco ARI Nº 98-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) Ángel Pérez González The Spanish position on the future of the Sahara is the correct one. Any change favouring Morocco, as some analysts and politicians of different leanings have suggested by, must be given serious consideration, since this could negatively affect Spain's strategic interests.
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