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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : International Economy & Trade
Critical metals: risks and opportunities for Spain ARI 12/2013 - 15/4/2013 Miriam Solera In recent years there has been a rapid expansion in the global renewable-energy and energy-efficiency technology markets. However, most low-carbon technologies require so-called ‘hi-tech’ or ‘critical’ metals, for the majority of which the EU’s member states have high import dependency rates.
Foreign Direct Investment in Spain: holding firm despite (or because of) the crisis ARI 10/2013 - 8/4/2013 William Chislett Spain continues to draw significant levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), despite (or because of) the crisis. Reforms are making FDI in the country more attractive.
Towards a common external representation for the eurozone? TGAE-Elcano 3/2013 - 26/3/2013 Daniela Schwarzer, Federico Steinberg and Diego Valiante Since the introduction of the euro in 1999, the external representation of the eurozone has been incrementally developed, but no formal amendments have been made. This Policy Paper discusses the case for a consolidated representation of the eurozone in international economic fora, analyses the obstacles to achieving it, and puts forward proposals to solve some of the existing obstacles.
A New Union of Creditors and Debtors Expert Comment 19/2013 - 28/2/2013 Federico Steinberg The Euro Zone (EZ) debt crisis has dramatically changed the nature of European integration. The combination of poor financial regulation and an incomplete design of the euro have led EMU to the brink of collapse, forcing the EZ to move forwards decisively in order to avoid catastrophe.
The pain in Spain: political, social and foreign policy implications of the European economic crisis 31/12/2012 Charles Powell This paper analyses the effects of the current economic crisis on the domestic, foreign and transatlantic relations in Spain. It also focuses on the economic and political reforms undertaken in response to the crisis, its impact on the country’s foreign policy agenda and advances a series of policy recommendations to help prevent the crisis from undermining the transatlantic relationship.
The Pain in Spain: Light at the End of the Tunnel? 12/12/2012 Charles Powell and Federico Steinberg Spain will undoubtedly require external financial help from its European partners, as well as more time and flexibility to achieve its fiscal targets. But it also has a number of strengths that are too often overlooked.
Shifting Towards What? Europe and the Rise of Unconventional Energy ARI 82/2012 - 10/12/2012 Gonzalo Escribano Although the emergence of the US as an unconventional energy power is shifting the global energy balance, its geopolitical consequences for the EU should not be exaggerated and should not distract attention from Europe’s already pressing energy policy agenda.
Are the BRICs Broken? Expert Comment 34/2012 - 6/11/2012 Iliana Olivié It is very tempting to interpret the slow growth in China or Brazil as an indicator that the so-called emerging countries also jumped on the decade’s cheap financing bandwagon that has now come to an end for all of us.
The Little Known Story of Spain’s Export Success, but How Long will it Last? ARI 60/2012 - 17/9/2012 William Chislett Every crisis has a silver lining. Spain’s four-year recession, apart from anaemic growth in 2011, has produced an unprecedented surge in exports, helping to lower the trade deficit and contributing to a turnaround in the current account. But for how long can this be sustained?
Difficult policy choices in China’s slowing economy Expert Comment 16/2012 - 5/9/2012 Pablo Bustelo
Spain's Balancing Act: Net Contributor or Net Beneficiary of the EU Budget ARI 50/2012 - 12/7/2012 Mario Kölling & Cristina Serrano Leal In the ongoing negotiation of the MFF 2014-2020, Spain has to balance several interests, requiring a flexible position combined with some firm principles.
Country’s fall from grace is greatly exaggerated Opinion - 12/6/2012 William Chislett Spain’s fall from grace is exaggerated. The image is out of sync with reality, yet the perception, for many, is the reality.
A bail-out that leaves questions unanswered Opinion - 11/6/2012 (Translated from Spanish) Federico Steinberg Good strategists know that it is risky to have to fronts open at the same time while in a state of internal weakness. That is why the Euro Zone, which is at its darkest hour, has decided to close the Spanish front in order to focus on the Greek one, which could open up again after the elections on 17 June.
Saving the Euro requires a great leap forward in political integration Opinion - 11/6/2012 (Translated from Spanish) Federico Steinberg Ever since the Greek crisis broke out, Germany has been mulling over a plan for the Euro Zone. It saw the chance to build the strong and federal Europe it had always yearned for by making use of its economic power and influence over the ECB to ensure that aid for hard-pressed countries would only be made available in exchange for greater transfers of sovereignty.
Reframing the euro vs. dollar debate through the perceptions of financial elites in key dollar-holding countries (*) 7/6/2012 Federico Steinberg and Miguel Otero-Iglesias This paper proposes a theoretically-informed and empirically-grounded cognitive approach to analyse how financial elites from China, the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Brazil interpret the euro vs. dollar debate.
The Rise of Spain’s International Presence, por/by William Chislett 21/5/2012 William Chislett Written by William Chislett, this document forms part of  “Spain’s Global Presence and Company Brands Atlas” which will be published by the Leading Brands of Spain Forum in the autumn.
Emerging Economies and the New Energy Security Agenda (ARI) ARI 33/2012 - 27/4/2012 Jorge Blázquez and José María Martín-Moreno The influence of the emerging economies on the energy markets is becoming as important as that of the developed economies. The new energy security agenda to be implemented in the coming years will have to deal with this scenario.
Ecuador’s Energy Policy Mix: Development, Conservation and Nationalism with Chinese Loans (ARI) ARI 26/2012 - 17/4/2012 Gonzalo Escribano Ecuador’s energy policy faces a complex variety of political and economic objectives that are difficult to reconcile in a consistent manner.
Austerity vs Stimulus: The MFF 2014-20’s Role in Stimulating Economic Growth and Job Creation (ARI) ARI 24/2012 - 12/4/2012 Mario Kölling and Cristina Serrano Leal The negotiation of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2014-20 is a crucial feature on the EU agenda for the next few months.
Challenges for the Financial Systems and the Monetary Policy Regimes in Southern Mediterranean Countries After the Crisis (ARI) ARI 13/2012 - 5/3/2012 Pilar L’Hotellerie-Fallois, Luis Orgaz and Pedro del Río This ARI reviews some aspects of the financial systems and the design and implementation of monetary policy regimes by central banks in the southern Mediterranean countries in order to assess the scope for changes in these areas.
The Economic Crisis and the Emerging Powers: Towards a New International Order? 20/2/2012 Robin Niblett The real challenges to the existing international order will come not from the established or emerging powers, but from global forces that are beyond their control and also from those non-state entities and groups which seek to undermine the process of globalisation that links all states and societies ever closer together.
The Current EU and Eurozone Issues 15/2/2012 Lucinda Creighton Statement by Lucinda Creighton, TD, Minister for European Affairs of Ireland, on Current EU and Eurozone Issues at the round-table discussion "Keys to understand the economic crisis in the EU", held in Madrid on 15 February and organised by the Elcano Royal Institute.
The Economic Crisis and the Emerging Powers: The EU’s Place Within a New International Order 13/2/2012 Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga The questions now facing Europe concern our chances of surviving the next decades without the continuing downward economic spiral that many countries are facing.
Energy Alternatives for the Transport Sector: The US and the EU Move in Different Directions (ARI) ARI 155/2011 - 22/11/2011 Heikki Willstedt Mesa This ARI looks at the current developments in alternative fuels/technologies for road transport in the framework of rising international prices for conventional fuels and climate change mitigation efforts.
Analysing Physical and Socio-economic Risk in the Adaption of Agriculture to Climate Change (ARI) ARI 133/2011 - 22/9/2011 Ana Iglesias, Sonia Quiroga and Agustín Diz Adapting agriculture to climate change requires an understanding of both natural impacts and the underlying vulnerability of socio-economic systems.
A New Reading of the Crisis and the Dilemmas of Economic Policy (ARI) ARI 124/2011 (Translated from Spanish) Federico Steinberg The financial shock waves of August 2011 call for a review of the diagnosis of the crisis and an evaluation of the limited economic policy alternatives at the disposal of the US and the euro zone.
The International Energy Agency Responds to the Libyan Crisis (ARI) ARI 117/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 21/7/2011 Gonzalo Escribano On 23 June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 60 million barrels of its members’ strategic petroleum reserves in July. In justifying the move, the IEA cited the need to mitigate the effects of the Libyan crisis, but it has been interpreted as a call for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost production and not jeopardise the economic recovery, as well as giving Saudi Arabia time to make the announced production increase materialise.
Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Energy in Japan: The Need for a Robust Social Contract (ARI) ARI 113-2011 - 29/6/2011 Haruko Satoh The Fukushima accident in March 2011 calls for the reassessment of the nuclear regime in Japan, especially as regards to public safety.
The Internationalisation of the Renminbi: Prospects and Risks (ARI) ARI 73/2011 - 18/4/2011 Miguel Otero-Iglesias By looking at how far China has gone in internationalising its currency, the Renminbi (RMB), it is possible to identify the main strategic goals that China wants to achieve through this process, along with the main risks that such an objective embodies.
Euro-area Fiscal Governance: A Guide for the Perplexed at Times of Crisis (ARI) ARI 65/2011 - 12/4/2011 Luis Guirola Fiscal governance in the Euro-zone is fatally flawed and it would be preferable to have a more integrated framework based on permanent institutions rather than rules.
Latin America: Economic and Political Outlook for 2011 (ARI) ARI 42/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/3/2011 Carlos Malamud and Federico Steinberg Latin America's economic and political outlook for 2011 is favourable. Growth and political stability appear to be guaranteed, although there are some risks on the horizon.
Rebuilding the Eurozone: Germany’s Role (ARI) ARI 37/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/3/2011 Luis Martí The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is revamping its regulatory and operating framework in the wake of the crises affecting various member states. The initiative led by the German government is important, and hotly debated.
The Euro War that Won’t Happen (ARI) ARI 29/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/2/2011 Juan I. Crespo The pressure being exerted on the Eurozone by the markets is driving the European integration process.
A Tool for the Economic Crisis: A Single European Treasury (ARI) ARI 31/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/1/2010 (Originally published on 10/3/2009) Juan I. Crespo The economic crisis could open a debate on one of the most passionate and intense issues that Europeans could consider: how to change Europe’s institutional structure to move towards the establishment of a Single Treasury for the euro zone countries.
Two Years of G-20 Summits: Adagio Spiccato (ARI) ARI 162/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/1/2011 Pablo Moreno The G-20 summit in Seoul has taken steps towards a global financial reform, the internal reform of the IMF and the establishment of a new development agenda.
When Banks Cannibalise a State: Analysing Ireland’s Financial Crisis (ARI) ARI 178/2010 - 29/12/2010 Peadar Kirby Ireland’s banking crisis was described by the IMF in early 2009 as matching ‘episodes of the most severe economic distress in post-World War II history’, yet measures taken since 2008 to overcome it have only served to worsen the crisis.
Africa and Climate Change: Impacts, Policies and Stance Ahead of Cancún (ARI) ARI 173/2010 - 15/12/2010 Raúl Iván Alfaro-Pelico This analysis reviews the effects of climate change in Africa, the response measures undertaken in the continent and the expected position of African countries in Cancún, Mexico.
The EU and Climate Change in the lead up to Cancún: Impacts, Policies and Positions (ARI) ARI 166/2010 - 24/11/2010 Anthony Hobley and Dominic Adams This paper analyses the main consequences of climate change for the EU, the mitigation and adaptation policies it has undertaken and the negotiating stance it will adopt in the international climate-change negotiations.
Cultural Change for a Bearable Climate (ARI) ARI 163/2010 - 17/11/2010 Erik Assadourian Stabilising the climate and curbing ecological decline more broadly will take nothing less than transforming cultural systems so that living sustainably becomes as natural as living as a consumer feels today. To do that, it will be necessary to harness leading societal institutions just as consumer interests did in the past century, when they so effectively normalised consumerism.
The Cuban Monetary and Financial Jigsaw Puzzle (ARI) ARI 148/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2010 Pavel Vidal Alejandro The 2008-09 balance of payments crisis and a succession of errors in economic policies have resulted in new monetary and financial complications in the Cuban economy, to be added to the costs and distortions of currency duality.
Currency Wars: Between Domestic Politics and International Cooperation (ARI) ARI 154/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 16/11/2010 Federico Steinberg The incipient currency war could lead to a protectionist escalation that would hinder the global economic recovery. This paper analyses the various angles of the currency war and possible ways of resolving it.
The BP Spill: A Policy Turning Point or a Further Case of Fickle Social Ripples? (ARI) ARI 140/2010 - 24/9/2010 Paul Isbell and Lara Lázaro Despite the preliminary nature of the available data, what are the underlying, intermediate and proximate causes of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, its main consequences and possible future developments?
Economic Intelligence: An Operational Concept for a Globalised World (ARI) ARI 134/2010 - 14/9/2010 Claude Revel Economic security policies consist in the prevention and avoidance of all situations that can disrupt the life of firms or States. In France, economic security is seen through the prism of ‘economic intelligence’, which aims to encompass all aspects of globalised risks and opportunities.
The EU’s Global Governance Versus China’s Harmonious World (ARI) ARI 133/2010 - 10/9/2010 Wang Youming The EU’s ‘Global Governance’ and China’s ‘Harmonious World’ seem to be competing to be the dominant idea on international relations in the new century.
India’s Transition to Global Donor: Limitations and Prospects (ARI) ARI 123/2010 - 23/7/2010 Dweep Chanana India has increasingly sought to expand its activities as a donor, both to reposition itself as an emerging power and to use aid as an instrument for engaging with other developing countries. This ARI looks at the current state of India’s donor programme as regards both its size and scope, identifies India’s role within the multilateral aid scenario and evaluates the challenges and prospects for further growth.
China and Africa: A Mutually Opportunistic Partnership? (ARI) ARI 99/2010 - 17/6/2010 Patricio González Richardson The relationship between China and Africa is positive for both sides and the exchange of essential natural resources for infrastructure to foster economic development is more likely to benefit than paternalistic and failed aid strategies.
Key Strategic Decisions for Europe in Energy and Climate Change (ARI) ARI 76/2010 - 26/4/2010 Paul Isbell and Federico Steinberg Europe’s goal is to design a coherent energy policy, supported by all of its member states, that allows it to blend the international leadership it has already exercised and demonstrated on climate change.
New Changes and Old Challenges in the Economic Governance of the Eurozone (ARI) ARI 71/2010 - 20/4/2010 Clara Crespo The tenth anniversary of the creation of the euro coincided with the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. And it did so amid uncertainty over the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. Its entry into force will allow for some improvements, such as greater economic coordination, but some of its weaknesses will remain. Despite this, as a whole the eurozone will probably emerge strengthened from the crisis.
Climate Change and Business: Eurostar’s Environmental Action Plan and its Communication –Lessons Learnt and Guidelines– (ARI) ARI 68/2010 - 12/4/2010 Simon Montague Businesses are under increasing pressure from customers and governments to reduce their environmental impact. This ARI examines the challenges and benefits of adopting an environmental plan.
The Impact of the International Financial Crisis on Brazil (ARI) ARI 38/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/4/2010 José Roberto Mendonça de Barros This ARI examines the impact of the global financial crisis on the Brazilian economy and the ways in which the country has managed to react positively to the ensuing challenges, without overlooking the new challenges that it will have to face in the future.
Climate Change Talks: Breakdown in Copenhagen; Next Stop, Mexico 2010 (COP 16) (ARI) ARI 9/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 9/3/2010 Lara Lázaro-Touza This ARI examines the climate change summit held in Copenhagen from 7-18 December 2009: the preparations for it, how it unfolded, the results and the pending challenges.
Hugo Chávez’s Third Devaluation (ARI) ARI 24/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/3/2010 Ronald Balza Guanipa The devaluation is the consequence of accelerated internal public spending funded through oil revenues. Although spending won Hugo Chávez votes, a significant number of voters may now be feeling the negative effects of devaluation.
Can the Euro Compete with the US Dollar?: The View from the BRICs (ARI) ARI 26/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/3/2010 Miguel Otero Iglesias As things now stand, for the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) the euro poses no threat to the US dollar from a material standpoint. However, as far as ideas are concerned, there has in fact been a change in the status quo of the international monetary system.
Developing India’s Surface Transport Capability: The Case of Road Infrastructure (ARI) ARI 37/2010 - 25/2/2010 Rajeev Anantaram The Government of India is making concerted efforts to reduce transport bottlenecks, particularly on roads. This ARI discusses the new policy initiatives formulated as part of an evolving regulatory regime, particularly those intended to encourage greater private sector participation and foreign direct investment.
The Development of the Power Sector in India: Issues and Prospects (ARI) Rajeev Anantaram ARI 6/2010 - 18/1/2010 The power sector in India is projected to grow rapidly over the next two decades and to be increasingly open to private sector participation, both domestic and foreign.
International Trade and Emerging Protectionism since the Crisis (ARI) ARI 5/2010 - 15/1/2010 Razeen Sally Protectionism has returned, reversing an almost three-decade trend of trade liberalisation.
The Momentum of Indonesia’s Economic Recovery (ARI) ARI 167/2009 - 15/12/2009 Fajar B. Hirawan It is clear that no single country can be immune from the global recession, including Indonesia. The impact on the latter has distorted some of its economic indicators, especially growth and trade. In line with the efforts made by its government to handle the crisis, Indonesia held elections, both legislative and presidential, in 2009. This ARI looks at the implications of the elections and the prospects for Indonesia’s economy after them.
The Global Economic Crisis and India: An Analysis (ARI) ARI 129/2009 - 10/9/2009 Pankaj Vashisht and Sriparna Pathak The unfolding global financial crisis comes in various forms and presents many challenges as well as opportunities, even though it is too early to predict any specific outcome. However, the fact remains that the international system and the concept of power as such is undergoing a shift. This has serious implications for the developing world. The financial crisis presents India in particular with several geopolitical implications.
The Impact of the Global Recession on South Africa (ARI) ARI 115/2009 - 17/7/2009 Hein Marais This paper examines the impact of the global economic recession on South Africa’s economy and society, the ways in which the country’s government has chosen to respond to that crisis, and its likely social and political fall-out.
A Russian Perspective on the Energy Charter Treaty (ARI) ARI 98/2009 - 16/6/2009 Andrei V. Belyi The recent gas crises between Russia and the Ukraine and a number of political declarations on the need for a new energy transit regime have brought the Energy Charter Treaty to the limelight.  This ARI aims to explain the Energy Charter’s political role and weaknesses by looking at the entire legal process in its political and historical context.
The Impact of the Global Crisis on China and its Reaction (ARI) ARI 62/2009 - 14/4/2009 Ming Zhang The current global financial crisis is having a significant negative impact on the Chinese economy, affecting exports, foreign exchange reserves and structural adjustments.
A New European Security Strategy for 2009? (ARI) ARI 36/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 13/4/2009 Natividad Fernández Sola The European Security Strategy (ESS) was adopted by the European Council on December 12, 2003. There have been many changes in the international community since then and the time has come to consider what has been accomplished and how to achieve what remains to be done.
What Makes this Financial Crisis Different from Others? (ARI) ARI 38/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/4/2009 Iliana Olivié This ARI aims to review the underlying causes of the financial crisis that erupted in the US in 2007, using a comparative approach and noting similarities with earlier crises (Mexico in 1994 and South Korea in 1997).
The London Summit: Milestone or Stumbling Block? (ARI) ARI 47/2009 - 23/3/2009 David Mathieson The summit of the G20 and international institutions for growth, jobs and stability is to be held on 2 April 2009 in London.
Improving Economic Governance in the EU (ARI) ARI 12/2009 - 20/1/2009 Carlos Mulas-Granados This ARI analyses the criticisms and the solutions to Europe’s economic governance that have been raised during recent years, and offers a brief reflection on the slight advances that were introduced in the Lisbon Treaty (2007), that still need to be ratified. It ends some reflections on the lessons that we could learn from the current financial crisis, and makes some proposals on the way forward.
Energy for the Western Hemisphere: Revisiting Latin America’s Energy Scene before the 5th Summit of the Americas (ARI) ARI 10/2009 - 14/1/2009 Paul Isbell Revisiting the energy scenario in Latin America, this paper analyses the region’s various energy challenges and evaluates the need and potential for a region-wide energy strategy.
Angola’s Current Economic Prospects: Oil Curse or Blessing? (ARI) ARI 4/2009 - 9/1/2009 Lucy Corkin The author reviews the economic boom that Angola is currently experiencing in a post-election context, despite the global economic downturn. While Angola’s impressive growth rates were initially a result of high oil prices, increasingly the economy is driven by the non-oil sector, primarily through construction and heavy public spending under the auspices of the national reconstruction programme.
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