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International Terrorism - ARI
ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : International Terrorism
Chaos, International Terrorism and Beyond: A Strategic Prognosis(ARI) ARI 146/2008 - 11/11/2008 Xavier Raufer During the historical interval from 1989 to 2001, the nature of the enemy has changed. Previously, the enemy was known, stable and familiar. Today the enemy is evasive, strange and incomprehensible –but just as dangerous, if not more so–.
The Threat of Jihadist Terrorism in Germany (ARI) ARI 142/2008 - 6/11/2008 Guido Steinberg German internal security is threatened by three distinct terrorist phenomena: organised Jihadists, independent Jihadists and the new Internationalists.
Suicide Attacks in Algeria: Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) (ARI) ARI 100/2008 - 12/9/2008 Anneli Botha Algeria has been confronted by 17 suicide attacks over a period of 16 months. Despite the devastation of these attacks, it is also clear that the Salafist Group of Combat and Preaching (GSPC)/Al-Qaeda in the Land of Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) grows in its sophistication, possibly to increasingly market itself as al-Qaeda’s representative in the region.
In Spain's interest: A Committed Foreign Policy (Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2008 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero An address by the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE. (This text is also available in French: Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée).
A Critical Analysis of Recent Developments in UK Counter-terrorism Policies and the Implications of the Car Bomb Incidents of June 2007 (ARI) ARI 115/2007 - 29/10/2007 Frank Gregory This ARI reviews the recent developments in the UK’s Counter-terrorism policies and the new Prime Minister’s 25 July ‘Statement on Security’ within the wider context of the response to multi-faceted CT challenges.
Al-Qaeda’s Threat to Denmark (ARI) ARI 112/2007 - 23/10/2007 Michael Taarnby This analysis concerns Denmark as a potential target for al-Qaeda. It seeks to define and understand the nature of the threat by tracking the historical and current connections between Denmark and al-Qaeda.
A quantitative study of the terrorist activities linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq (ARI) ARI 79/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/9/2007 Fernando Reinares, Olga Arroyo and Raquel Fontecha This ARI analyses where and how the attacks related to al-Qaeda in Iraq take place, as well as which are the preferred targets and the actual victims of this terrorist violence.
International Cooperation and Collaboration in the Fight Against Terrorism (ARI) ARI 29/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 20/06/2007 José Enrique Díaz Díaz This ARI reviews cooperation and collaboration mechanisms in the fight against terrorism within the European Union and at other levels of international society.
The West and the Challenge of Radical Islam: An Interpretation (ARI) ARI 38/2007 (Translated from Spanish) Juan Avilés This paper proposes an interpretation of the rise of radical Islam and its clash with the West based on the tensions within Muslim countries as a result of their modernisation.
International Terrorism and Public Opinion in Spain (ARI) ARI 32/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 2/4/2007 Rut Bermejo and Fernando Reinares Perceptions of Spanish public opinion of the current threat from international terrorism, its causes and the expectations of further Jihadist attacks.
What Threat Does Jihadist Terrorism Currently Pose to Spain? (ARI) ARI 33/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 2/4/2007 Fernando Reinares Spain as a target for al-Qaeda, domestic impact of North African Jihadist terrorist networks under restructuring and likely consequences for national security.
To What Extent Does Al-Qaeda Still Pose a Threat to European Societies? (ARI) ARI 9/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/2/2007 Fernando Reinares Al-Qaeda still exists as a terrorist structure differentiated from other groups in the global neo-Salafi Jihadist movement and it continues to pose a real threat to European societies. This threat may be direct or indirect. It is particularly serious in the case of the United Kingdom, although by no means insignificant for other European Union countries.
The War on Terrorism: Is the US Winning? (ARI) ARI 105/2006 - 2/10/2006 Martha Crenshaw This paper assesses the United States strategy against international terrorism as it has evolved over the past five years. Focusing on the international dimension of American actions, special attention is paid to the scope and internal consistency of declared objectives, as well as to the suitability of the means assigned to the pursuit of the war on terror
The UN’s Fight Against Terrorism: Five Years After 9/11 ARI 83/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 6.9.2006 Javier Rupérez This ARI describes and analyses the anti-terrorism measures undertaken by the United Nations, and more specifically by the Security Council, since the 9/11 attacks, and explains the problems that are hindering progress
Towards a Social Characterisation of Jihadist Terrorism in Spain: Implications for Domestic Security and Action Abroad ARI 34/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 6.4.2006 Fernando Reinares This ARI analyses socio-demographic data relating to 188 persons who were imprisoned in Spain between 2001 and 2005, under suspicion of involvement in Jihadist terrorism, enabling us to map a social characterisation of this phenomenon: they are typically men born between 1966 and 1975, aged from 26 to 40 on arrest, basically North African immigrants andmostly in possession of legal immigration documentation; most had settled in Madrid, Barcelona and the Mediterranean coast; with a few exceptions, they are predominantly uneducated individuals with low standards of professional skills. Based on the above, a series of recommendations can be made to prevent Jihadist terrorism, in terms of both domestic security and action abroad.
The Mediterranean Region and International Terrorism: A New Framework for Cooperation? ARI 149/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 11.1.2006 Fernando Reinares This ARI analyses the risks and threats that international terrorism poses to countries in the Euro-Mediterranean region today. After a review of bilateral and multilateral cooperation on internal security issues in this geopolitical region, this paper provides a preliminary assessment of the Euro-Mediterranean Code of Conduct on Countering Terrorism.
Fear and Loathing: Australia and Counter-Terrorism ARI 156/2005 - 21.12.2005 David Wright-Neville Unlike many of its Western counterparts and Asia-Pacific neighbours, until recently Australia has had little direct experience of terrorism. Yet the events of 9/11 shocked Australia from its complacency and since then counter-terrorism has occupied a central position in national political debates. Canberra has adopted a two-tiered approach to counter-terrorism. At the international level the fulcrum upon which its counter-terrorism policies rest is Canberra’s military alliance with the United States. At the domestic level, the Australian government has responded to the threat by hardening the state’s investigative and punitive powers. Yet undermining the effectiveness of policies at both levels are a set of erroneous assumptions about the nature and causes of terrorism. As such, Canberra’s approaches to the threat of terrorism are unlikely to yield long-term benefits in terms of regional or national security.
NATO’s Role in the Fight Against International Terrorism ARI 138/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 1.12.2005 Miguel Ángel Ballesteros International terrorism requires a strategy of cooperation between all countries. NATO, aware of this need, has been quick to react to the realisation that global terrorism, rather than a future risk, is a current threat. Its strategy is to be more dynamic, in an attempt to emphasise prevention rather than consequence management. Accordingly, it is adapting its command structure, its military capabilities and its procedures in order to be more efficient in the face of this threat. All of this is impacting and influencing Spain in the transformation of its armed forces and its role in the fight against terrorism
Jordan: Terrorist Bombings Backfire (ARI) ARI 143/2005 - 30/11/2005 Alan George The bombings in Jordan on 9 November backfired in their attempt to undermine King Abdullah’s regime, which remains secure. However, the country’s weak spot is its economy.
Bali II: Will it be a Turning Point? ARI 125/2005 - 13.10.2005 Rohan Gunaratna This ARI reviews the measures being taken, in addition to those that ought to be adopted, for Indonesia to develop a satisfactory response to the threat of Islamist terrorism following the bomb attack in Bali on 1 October 2005.
Is There a French Advantage in the Fight Against Terrorism? ARI 110/2005 - 1.9.2005 Antoine Garapon France has managed to fight against terrorism without imposing laws of exception but rather by adapting its institutions to the changes in terrorist practices.
Is Judicial Balancing Appropriate in The War on Terror? Contrasting Ordinary Times, Emergencies and Times of Stress ARI 109/2005 - 2.9.2005 Michel Rosenfeld Whether judicial balancing and proportionality analysis are appropriate in cases arising out of the war on terror depends on whether such a war can be conducted under ordinary conditions, or whether it calls for the deployment of emergency powers, or else, whether it calls for the adoption of an intermediate approach consistent with conditions of stress. To strike a proper equilibrium between liberty and security, judicial balancing in the war on terror must be fine-tuned to fit conditions of stress.
Conceptualising International Terrorism ARI 82/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 1.9.2005 Fernando Reinares International terrorism is not exactly the same thing as transnational terrorism. Neither should international terrorism be confused with Islamist terrorism, even though these terms refer to phenomena that at present largely overlap. This paper explains why this is so, proposes two basic criteria for an analytical definition of international terrorism and applies these definitions to the current reality of globalised violence.
The London Bombings and the Broader Strategic Context ARI 100/2005 - 20.7.2005 Magnus Ranstorp The UK was uniquely prepared for the challenge of an Islamist terrorist attack in having built an impressively integrated intelligence architecture while pursuing a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy that hinges on making London and British society resilient and in minimising the risks of terrorism. Despite this preparedness the bombers went unnoticed and got through the security dragnet. The London bombings show that the asymmetric threat of terrorism is not going to go away in the near term –instead it is likely to be enduring in nature and potentially deeply divisive within our democratic societies–.
The 7 July London Bombings: Islamic Extremism Strikes Again ARI 99/2005 - 19.7.2005 Peter Lehr London and its citizens were expecting a major terrorist attack basically since 11 September 2001. The question was never ‘whether’ such an attack would take place, but rather ‘when’ it would happen. On Thursday, 7 July, it finally did happen. This article will focus on the aftermath of the attacks and the fall-out for London, the UK, and Europe as a whole.
Intelligence-led Counter-terrorism: A Brief Analysis of the UK Domestic Intelligence System’s Response to 9/11 and the Implications of the London Bombings of 7 July 2005 ARI 94/2005 - 12.7.2005 Frank Gregory This paper discusses intelligence and domestic counter-terrorism in the UK, post 9/11, with an emphasis on intelligence-led counter-terrorism. It also offers a tentative, initial analysis of the implications of the 7 July London bombings, where there is a presumption of a lack of prior intelligence
London Terrorist Attacks: the Impact of 7/7 on British Muslims ARI 95/2005 - 12.7.2005 Humayun Ansari This ARI explores the implications of the London terrorist bombings of 7 July 2005 for British Muslims, and considers the various reactions and perceptions among Britain’s Muslim communities in the immediate aftermath of these atrocities. It examines the emerging impact of the bombings on British Muslims, and the ways in which the British authorities are responding to their concerns
The Issues of the Bush Victory in 2004: Terrorism, But Not Moral Values ARI Nº 177/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.11.2004 Josep M. Colomer This paper analyses the issues that decisively shaped the election agenda during the United States presidential campaign and election of 2 November 2004. It can be expected that, during his second term, President George W. Bush will find different degrees of popular support to pursue new policy initiatives on various issues
Hispano-Argentine relations and Basque terrorism ARI Nº 116/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.6.2004 Carlos Malamud On 17 June the Argentine federal judge Claudio Bonadío threw out the request for extradition of the presumed Basque terrorist Jesús María Iriondo presented by the Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón. The aim of this article is to analyse how this will affect bilateral relations between Spain and Argentina, which of late both sides had been attempting to improve
Saudi Arabia in 2004: Can it survive the terrorist threat? ARI Nº 119/2004 - 5.7.2004 Jean-François Seznec This paper will try to present a view of the socio-political structure of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia today and estimate whether the present system can handle the congruant stresses of unemployment among the young, the call for jihad by the extremists, the rift between the United States and Saudi Arabia at a time of uncertain leadership
From 9-11 to 3-11: Spain’s Role in the European Union ARI Nº 48/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Carlos Closa Montero September 11 has had an impact on the EU and the processes underway since then, especially the negotiations on the Constitution. Now, March 11 poses new questions regarding the possible repercussions of the terrible terrorist attacks committed in Madrid.
Does al-Qaeda have a global strategy? ARI Nº 74/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004 Haizam Amirah Fernández The attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year are an example of how terrorists, when choosing a place, time and form of action, can help generate reactions which, in turn, have amplified consequences that serve their purposes. A demonstration of this tragic fact is how those who use terror for their political ends have developed an alarming capacity to analyze and predict events. Their understanding of the realities and mechanisms that govern open societies contrasts with the difficulties these societies face when attempting to predict the strategy and methods used by al-Qaedist groups
The Fight Against Islamist Terrorism After the March 11 Attacks: Lessons Learnt ARI Nº 41/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 23.4.2003 Carlos Echeverría Jesús If there is one thing we should learn from recent terrorist actions, it is the terrorists’ ability to surprise us. This first large-scale Islamist attack in Europe has shown that what some dismissed as alarmist scaremongering has now become a reality. To combat this threat we need greater international coordination and cooperation than there has been so far, enhanced preventative capacity and a root-and-branch rethink of existing terrorist policies
The Madrid Massacre: The Iraq Connection ARI Nº 65/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 21.4.2004 Juan Avilés The March 11 terrorist bomb attacks seem to have had two objectives: the general one of striking at the heart of Europe and the much more specific one of forcing a Spanish withdrawal from Iraq. This analysis explores the possibility of a connection between March 11 and the situation in Iraq
The Madrid Massacre: Mistakes Made and Mistakes to be Avoided (ARI) ARI Nº 50/2004 - 31/3/2004 Juan Avilés The terrorist outrage of 3/11 was the work, according to available information, of an al-Qaeda cell, probably trying to force Spain to withdraw its troops from Iraq.
What Does 3-11 Mean for the Spanish, European and World Economies? (ARI) ARI Nº 52/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 31/3/2004 Paul Isbell The 3-11 terrorist attacks raise a very important question: What impact could they have on the development of the current economic situation?
The European Union and its Fight Against Terrorism (ARI) ARI Nº 42/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 31/3/2004 Félix Arteaga Martín As in the aftermath of 9-11, the 3-11 tragedy has made the fight against terrorism a priority on the EU’s political agenda
The Moroccan Combatant Group ARI Nº 51 /2004 (Translation from French) - 30.3.2004 Mohamed Darif The author analyzes Morocco’s most active radical Islamist group, reviewing its creation and the presence of Moroccan volunteers in Afghanistan, its relations with Osama Bin Laden and its logistic support to al-Qaeda and, finally, its shift in strategy following the attacks of 11 September 2001 towards more overt terrorist activities
Terrorism Revisited (ARI) ARI Nº 59/2004 - 30/3/2004 Tomas Valasek One of the desired effects of the Madrid bombing seems to have been to splinter the Western alliance. The allies must see through the trap, acknowledge mistakes, produce a stricter definition of the threat of terrorism and create a new strategy for fighting its sources
Securitizing Migration after 11 March ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003 James C. Ross This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid
Possible consequences of the terrorist attacks in Madrid ARI Nº 40/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 25.3.2004 Javier Jordán These are a series of considerations on the consequences of the attacks of 11 March, with some suggestions that may help stem the most negative effects
New threats from al-Qaeda ARI Nº 54/2004 - 24.3.2004 Juan Avilés (originally published in Spanish 30/11/2002) The events of the last few weeks underline the global threat posed by al-Qaeda, which will probably now turn to targets in Europe. Spain should pay particular attention to this risk
Terrorism in Morocco: a security concern for Spain ARI Nº 53/2004 - 24.3.2004 Domingo del Pino The terrorist attacks last May 16 in Casablanca force Spain to pay a greater attention to the state of Morocco’s internal affairs. Eventual instability in Morocco would affect Spain, given the importance of Spanish interests there, of their common sea and land borders and of the nature of the recurrent problems between the two countries. Following is an analysis of how Spanish interests would be affected if the recent attacks eventually led to instability in the Kingdom of Morocco
Biometric Surveillance: A Need for Public Debate ARI Nº 154/2003 - 29.12.2003 James C. Ross Biometric identification systems arguably provide the United States and the European Union with a ‘silver bullet’ solution to some key security challenges –like international terrorism, organised crime and illegal migration– associated with identity theft and document fraud. As the use of biometric technologies extends from the margins to the mainstream, important substantive issues arise concerning data protection, individual privacy and civil liberties
Islamist terrorist rings in Spain. Current situation and future outlook ARI Nº 119/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 13.10.2003 Javier Jordán We analyse the rise of Islamist terrorist rings, specifically those of Al-Qa’ida, in Spain. To date this country has been used merely as a rearguard area but in the future it could become a direct terrorist target. We examine the reasons for such a change of strategy and propose means to prevent terrorism on Spanish soil
The Wreck of the Prestige: Legal Realities in the Existence and Limitation of Liability ARI Nº 107-2002 - 28.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) Juan José Álvarez Rubio The Prestige, a single-hull oil tanker built 26 years ago, foundered on November 19, spilling thousands of tons of fuel into the sea. Faced with this new environmental disaster suffered by the coasts of Galicia, it is necessary to unravel the main legal and regulatory elements involved, from both a public and private international point of view, in order to assign liabilities and establish the bases for an effective policy that will prevent future wrecks of this kind.
Reinventing Global Security ARI Nº 66-2002 - 11.6.2003 Eduardo Serra It could be seen as an historical joke, but between 11/9 (November the 9th, 1989) and 9/11 (September 11th 2001), the whole world mutated from the old bipolar system to a new post-bipolar environment. The dramatic terrorist attacks over New York and Washington signalled the end of the 90s, making everyone face, with no warning, the dark side of globalisation. Also to accept the reality that we were too vulnerable and a relatively easy target for people like Osama Bin Laden, declared enemies of our way of life. (Conference given by Eduardo Serra, chairman of the Real Instituto Elcano in Brussels, 11 June, 2003)
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