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Mediterranean & Arab World - ARI |
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Lebanon’s Choice: Dante’s Inferno or More’s Utopia? (ARI)
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ARI 87/2007 - 24/7/2007
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George Emile Irani
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Lebanon is faced with an
internal political deadlock and the threat of being overwhelmed by salafi
groups bent on destabilising it. The basic domestic political issues at this
point are: the formation of a new national unity government, the election of a
new President (the mandate of the current President Emile Lahoud expires this
autumn), the creation of a new tribunal to investigate the killing of former
Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri and his escort, and the rising threat of al-Qaeda-inspired
salafi groups such as Fatah al-Islam.
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The EU, the US and the Muslim World (ARI)
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ARI 83/2007 - 19/7/2007
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Haizam Amirah-Fernández
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Divergent policies and threat perceptions in the US and the EU concerning the Muslim world, as well as differences in strategic culture and historical experience, make transatlantic cooperation less relevant than is required by current challenges.
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Will the Fourth Gulf War be Avoided? (ARI)
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ARI 62/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/07/2007
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Haizam Amirah-Fernández
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The expulsion of the Taliban
from Afghanistan and the neo-con fiasco in Iraq have strengthened the role of
the Shias and of Iran in the Middle East. Will a new regional war be avoided?
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Post-Saddam Iraq: A Growing Threat to the Middle East (ARI)
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ARI 21/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/3/2007
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Haizam Amirah Fernández
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Saddam Hussein’s Iraq posed a threat to peace and security in the Middle East. Now in the throes of a process of decomposition, the country could become a source of new and even more serious threats for the region and for the international system.
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The Lebanese Predicament: Stability or Civil War in 2007? (ARI)
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ARI 25/2007 - 19/2/2007
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George Emile Irani
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The 1989 Taef Accord that ended the civil war in Lebanon is now proving to be outdated and overtaken by events. The fundamental issue is still the question of identity, values and choices. What kind of Lebanon do the Lebanese want?
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US Strategy in the Middle East: Struggling to Avoid Failure (ARI)
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ARI 24/2007 - 16/2/2007
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Augustus Richard Norton
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Surveying US history, one is hard pressed to find presidential
decisions as monumentally ill-informed and counter-productive as the 2003
decision to invade and occupy Iraq. The question of the hour is whether the US
will compound its strategic blunder by attacking Iran.
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Peacekeeping in Lebanon: a necessary but insufficient risk (ARI)
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ARI 95/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/10/2006
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J. Enrique de Ayala
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The deployment in Lebanon of a large multinational force under United Nations authority to maintain the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah has led to a significant European military involvement in the dangerous Middle Eastern scenario. This mission raises many questions about how it will be implemented, the risks to be faced and the consequences it can have on the stabilisation of one of the world’s most conflict-ridden regions
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Libya’s Return: Between Change and Continuity
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ARI 58 (Translated from Spanish) - 6.1.2006
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Haizam Amirah Fernández
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Libya has come a long way towards its international rehabilitation in the last three years. The reforms implemented so far have been limited and have focused on the economic sphere, in order to attract greater foreign direct investment, especially in the oil sector. These reforms should not be expected to come alongside significant political liberalisation
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Morocco: The Bases for a New Development Model? (II): The ‘50 Years of Human Development and Prospects for 2025’ Report
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ARI 40/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4.5.2006
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Iván Martín
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Along with the Justice and Reconciliation Report (IER) on human rights’ violations committed up to 1999, the Report on ‘50 years of Human Development and Prospects for 2025’ –entrusted by the King of Morocco to a numerous group of independent experts under the direction of one of his advisors– is part of the same retrospective review and collective reflection effort on the political experience of Morocco since it achieved independence in 1956
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Morocco: The Bases for a New Development Model? (I): The National Initiative for Human Development (INDH)
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ARI 35/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 5.4.2006
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Iván Martín
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The INDH puts Morocco’s social issues at the forefront of the country’s political priorities. Among its most positive features is that it has adopted a participatory approach, which involves civil society and local authorities in both planning and implementation. However, it is not clear how it fits in with a national development strategy and with the country’s general economic policy, nor how it will help transfer greater political power and resources to local governments as the key agents in the current democracy-building process.
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Alliance of Civilisations or ‘Alliance of the Civilised’?
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ARI 41/2006 - 3.4.2006
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Shaun Riordan
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The successes of the Alliance of Civilisations have been largely presentational. While the need for a new focus in diplomacy in the 21st century is undeniable, the Alliance of Civilisations does not fill the gap. It suffers both theoretical and practical problems, above all in its focus on the conflicts and differences between civilisations and their values, which could even worsen the global climate. However, instead of abandoning it, the Alliance of Civilisations can be reformed, especially by focusing on concrete problems and giving a greater role to NGOs.
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Jordan: Terrorist Bombings Backfire (ARI)
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ARI 143/2005 - 30/11/2005
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Alan George
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The bombings in Jordan on 9 November backfired in their attempt to undermine King Abdullah’s regime, which remains secure. However, the country’s weak spot is its economy.
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The Barcelona Process: An Assessment of a Decade of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership
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ARI 137/2005 - 30.11.2005
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Haizam Amirah Fernández and Richard Youngs
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On 27 and 28 November Spain hosted the Euro-Mediterranean Summit commemorating the tenth anniversary of the Barcelona Process –also known as the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, or EMP–. This paper attempts to shed some light on the achievements and deficiencies of the main themes of the EMP and the various national perspectives in these debates.
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Algeria: Between Internal Challenges and International Courtship
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ARI 119/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 24.10.2005
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Natalia Sancha
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The proliferation of terrorist attacks makes Algeria a key player in the fight against international terrorism. At the national level, the draft Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, unveiled by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and to be put to public referendum on September 29, appears to grant impunity to the authors of the internal conflict of the 1990s.
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The course of the Mexican economy in 2004
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ARI Nº 193/2004 - 16.12.2004
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Alfredo Arahuetes García
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The deceleration of the Mexican economy, which began in 2001 due to the sharp drop in activity in the US market –producing negative GDP growth of 0.1%–, was followed by two years of stagnation during which the Mexican economy achieved a significant degree of stability. These past three years have now given way, in 2004, to a recovery based mainly on the dynamism of exports, accompanied by the recovery of investment in associated sectors. For this reason, consolidation will depend on whether the current uncertainties in the international economy –derived from the American economy, which is the main market for Mexican exports– are dispelled and on the complex process of boosting the dynamism of the domestic market
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Arafat and Palestine: An Onerous Legacy
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ARI Nº 194/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 17.12.2004
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Samuel Hadas
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The death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat begins a new era, say politicians, experts and analysts around the world. Most of the hundreds if not thousands of comments published in recent weeks agree that his passing could at least make it possible to reopen the window of opportunity brusquely closed so many times before (some even consider it ‘a great doorway opened wide’). Indeed, the window is open a crack, but instead of the breeze of hope that many predict and desire, the winds of war could well blow again, closing the window for the umpteenth time if the leaders of both sides and the powers involved do not act coherently
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Leasing of public farmland in Morocco
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ARI Nº 175/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.11.2004
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Iñigo Moré
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The area offered for tender is the equivalent of 100,000 football pitches and represents an interesting business opportunity. It is also an opportunity to strengthen Moroccan-European relations in a sector that is the backbone of the Moroccan economy and an area of great sensitivity for the European Union.
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Morocco is Failing to Take Off
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ARI Nº 145/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 27.9.2004
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Haizam Amirah Fernández
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When Mohammed VI took power in 1999, great hopes were raised both inside and outside Morocco. Five years later, discontent and disappointment are growing more quickly than the promised reforms
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Saudi Arabia in 2004: Can it survive the terrorist threat?
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ARI Nº 119/2004 - 5.7.2004
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Jean-François Seznec
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This paper will try to present a view of the socio-political structure of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia today and estimate whether the present system can handle the congruant stresses of unemployment among the young, the call for jihad by the extremists, the rift between the United States and Saudi Arabia at a time of uncertain leadership
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Algeria after the re-election of Abdelaziz Bouteflika
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ARI Nº 87/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004
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Miguel Hernando de Larramendi
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Abdelaziz Bouteflika was re-elected president of the Republic of Algeria in the first round of presidential elections held on April 8, 2004. Repeated declarations of neutrality by the armed forces, as well as the willingness expressed by the Chief of the General Staff, Mohamed Lamari, to accept the victory of any candidate –including the leader of the Islah Islamist party, Abdallah Jabala– led international observers to take greater interest in these elections. On this occasion, unlike during the presidential elections of 1999, the other candidates did not withdraw, which helped make the elections appear relatively open and competitive. The weight of the armed forces in Algerian politics remains a decisive factor in any analysis of Algerian political and economic life. Bouteflika’s victory strengthens his position in the political system, though the unexpected magnitude of his win undermines the credibility of elections that were meant to give the world the impression that a democratizing process is underway after more than a decade of civil war –with the post-9/11 international context of the war against terrorism as a backdrop
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For More Realistic and Efficient Spanish-Moroccan Relations (ARI)
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ARI 73/2004 - 4/5/2004
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José María López Bueno
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Historically, the varying quality of Spanish-Moroccan relations has been determined almost exclusively by the vicissitudes of domestic politics in both countries. However, despite the numerous ups and downs, Perejil included, the official rhetoric has always expressed a ‘mutual desire to strengthen fruitful relations between fraternal nations’.It appears necessary to promote a more realistic framework for cross-border relations.
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Does al-Qaeda have a global strategy?
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ARI Nº 74/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004
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Haizam Amirah Fernández
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The attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year are an example of how terrorists, when choosing a place, time and form of action, can help generate reactions which, in turn, have amplified consequences that serve their purposes. A demonstration of this tragic fact is how those who use terror for their political ends have developed an alarming capacity to analyze and predict events. Their understanding of the realities and mechanisms that govern open societies contrasts with the difficulties these societies face when attempting to predict the strategy and methods used by al-Qaedist groups
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The Fight Against Islamist Terrorism After the March 11 Attacks: Lessons Learnt
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ARI Nº 41/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 23.4.2003
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Carlos Echeverría Jesús
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If there is one thing we should learn from recent terrorist actions, it is the terrorists’ ability to surprise us. This first large-scale Islamist attack in Europe has shown that what some dismissed as alarmist scaremongering has now become a reality. To combat this threat we need greater international coordination and cooperation than there has been so far, enhanced preventative capacity and a root-and-branch rethink of existing terrorist policies
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The Moroccan Combatant Group
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ARI Nº 51 /2004 (Translation from French) - 30.3.2004
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Mohamed Darif
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The author analyzes Morocco’s most active radical Islamist group, reviewing its creation and the presence of Moroccan volunteers in Afghanistan, its relations with Osama Bin Laden and its logistic support to al-Qaeda and, finally, its shift in strategy following the attacks of 11 September 2001 towards more overt terrorist activities
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New threats from al-Qaeda
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ARI Nº 54/2004 - 24.3.2004
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Juan Avilés (originally published in Spanish 30/11/2002)
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The events of the last few weeks underline the global threat posed by al-Qaeda, which will probably now turn to targets in Europe. Spain should pay particular attention to this risk
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Terrorism in Morocco: a security concern for Spain
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ARI Nº 53/2004 - 24.3.2004
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Domingo del Pino
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The terrorist attacks last May 16 in Casablanca force Spain to pay a greater attention to the state of Morocco’s internal affairs. Eventual instability in Morocco would affect Spain, given the importance of Spanish interests there, of their common sea and land borders and of the nature of the recurrent problems between the two countries. Following is an analysis of how Spanish interests would be affected if the recent attacks eventually led to instability in the Kingdom of Morocco
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Islamist terrorist rings in Spain. Current situation and future outlook
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ARI Nº 119/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 13.10.2003
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Javier Jordán
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We analyse the rise of Islamist terrorist rings, specifically those of Al-Qa’ida, in Spain. To date this country has been used merely as a rearguard area but in the future it could become a direct terrorist target. We examine the reasons for such a change of strategy and propose means to prevent terrorism on Spanish soil
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Iraq under Inspection
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ARI Nº 3-2003 - 10.1.2003 (Translation from spanish)
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Manuel Coma
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The Bush Administration has subjected its plan to strip Saddam Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction to a twin compromise, part domestic, part international. This led to the adoption of resolution 1441. The weapons inspection provided for in that resolution is unlikely to achieve anything unless it finds Iraqui defectors prepared to risk sharing their knowledge or is given classified information from the intelligence services
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Morocco-Spain: a relationship difficult to repair
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ARI Nº 106-2002 (Translation from spanish) - 22.11.2002
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Domingo del Pino
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A year after the Moroccan ambassador in Madrid was recalled, relations between Spain and Morocco do not appear to be on track. Hopes placed on the technocratic government of Driss Jettou have vanished quickly.
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The Problem of the Palestinian Elections
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ARI Nº 103-2002 - 19.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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José María Ferré
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The date set by Arafat for holding Palestinian elections -20th January 2003- does not appear to be realistic. Some currently non-existent minimum conditions for democracy and pluralism need to be established in the Territories.
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The Arab world: the Challenges of Transition
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ARI Nº 102-2002 - 18.11.2002
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Shafeeq Ghabra
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September 11th brought all the issues of the Arab world to the stage; all the inconsistencies, the contradictions, cycles of crisis and political discourses. 9-11 and the US reactions and policies shook the Arab world. It created a dynamic and a process that is beyond our ability to stop and control.
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Origins and Consequences of the Second Intifada
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ARI Nº 101-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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José Luis Calvo Albero
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Despite its minor character in comparison with other contemporary conflicts, the confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis has a proven destabilizing capability not just on a regional scale, but also worldwide. The Second Intifada has led both contenders into a vicious circle of self-destruction, which is already being mixed with other regional problems to paint a very dangerous scenario for global stability.
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The Dilemma of the Kurdish Opposition in Iraq
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ARI Nº 99-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Manuel Martorell
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The Kurdish opposition forces, which have governed an independent state "de facto" in the mountainous area in Northern Iraq since the end of the Golf War, have been called to play a significant role in the new crisis that has blown up between Saddam Hussein and the United States. The current international situation has positioned the two main organisations -the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)- in a situation where they may risk their control over Iraqi Kurdistan, by joining the North American stance.
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The Sahara Issue and the Stability of Morocco
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ARI Nº 98-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Ángel Pérez González
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The Spanish position on the future of the Sahara is the correct one. Any change favouring Morocco, as some analysts and politicians of different leanings have suggested by, must be given serious consideration, since this could negatively affect Spain's strategic interests.
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Iraq and International Public Opinion
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ARI Nº 97-2002 - 11.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Javier Noya
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An analysis of international public opinion regarding a hypothetical attack against Iraq shows, first of all, that in the US, attitudes are more plural, nuanced, and multilateralist than might be deduced from some statements or strategies of the American government. Secondly, despite the widely held view after September 11, there is a notable lack of understanding between the US and Europe
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Iran at a crossroad
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ARI Nº 89-2002 - 29.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Ramón Blecua
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For the past two years, the political situation in Iran has been dominated by a protracted power struggle between different factions, broadly aligned in two opposing camps defined as reformist and conservative. This widely accepted definition could be a misleading simplification of the country's complex political system, this being one of the reasons why many predictions on the evolution of the regime are often proven inaccurate. As Wilfred Buchta has argued in a penetrating essay on the power structure of Iran, "these factions can assume very different positions on different issues, which makes it impossible to categorize a given individual as definitely moderate or radical".
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The Launching of the Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment: Towards a New Euro-Mediterranean Bank?
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ARI Nº 79-2002 - 18.10.2002
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Clara Mira
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A new Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment and Partnership (FEMIP) within the European Investment Bank (EIB) was officially launched in Barcelona. This new initiative is an ambitious step in the reinvigoration of EU relations with the Mediterranean and in its effort to contribute to the prosperity of the region. Its creation is a positive step forward, and it was the best agreement that could be reached given the current climate in the EU, but it may not be the best possible option.
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Electoral Parallels between Morocco and Algeria
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ARI Nº 77-2002 - 18.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Ignacio Cembrero
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Despite the eleven years separating the elections in Algeria in December 1991 from those hold in Morocco on last September 27th, there are many similarities. Both plebiscites were acknowledged as the most transparent in the history of these two countries and in both cases it was seen that most of those who voted had Islamic tendencies. Faced with this outcome, the Algerian authorities interrupted the electoral proceedings and dissolved the Islamic party. The country was plunged into violence. The Moroccans have used pressure and negotiation behind the scenes to weaken the electoral strength of the Islamic faction
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On the Islamic fundamentalist threat in Morocco: an analysis based on recent events
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ARI Nº 76-2002 - 18.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Héctor Cebolla Boado
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Since last Spring, Moroccan society has been immersed in a long and complicated debate on the possibility of an Islamic fundamentalist threat to the country. This analysis identifies the most recent events that have shaped this discussion: the probable electoral success of the moderate Islamic Party for Justice and Development (PJD); the violent acts encouraged by certain Salafist factions in the country and the dismantling of the Hichra wa Takfir (Expiation and Hegira) group. The coincidence in time has led to some psychosis in several newspapers and broad sectors of civil society. Nevertheless, because of the September 2002 elections, the debate was artificially fanned. For the time being, there does not appear to be any serious threat of fundamentalism in Morocco, at least, no greater than it was two or three years ago.
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The Houston Summit: Implications for the Geopolitics of Oil
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ARI Nº 71-2002 - 16.10.2002
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Paul Isbell
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The US-Russia Commercial Energy Summit marked yet another milestone in the transition from the Cold War to a new strategic order. Ever since the Gulf War, when the Soviet Union stood aside while the US organized its international coalition to displace Iraqi forces from Kuwait, US-Russia relations have continued to undergo profound historic changes. It has been the issue of energy supplies which has brought the two ex-arch enemies from the Cold War era increasingly closer together.
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Reinventing Global Security
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ARI Nº 66-2002 - 11.6.2003
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Eduardo Serra
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It could be seen as an historical joke, but between 11/9 (November the 9th, 1989) and 9/11 (September 11th 2001), the whole world mutated from the old bipolar system to a new post-bipolar environment. The dramatic terrorist attacks over New York and Washington signalled the end of the 90s, making everyone face, with no warning, the dark side of globalisation. Also to accept the reality that we were too vulnerable and a relatively easy target for people like Osama Bin Laden, declared enemies of our way of life. (Conference given by Eduardo Serra, chairman of the Real Instituto Elcano in Brussels, 11 June, 2003)
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A Businessman at the Head of the Moroccan Government
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ARI Nº 69-2002 - 11.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Domingo del Pino
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Ten years after the elections that surprised the Algerian establishment with an Islamist victory, the authorities in Morocco have received a similar shock with the important electoral advance achieved by their country's Islamists. Driss Jettou's appointment as Prime Minister is the Moroccan political system's soft response to an Islamism that is, for the moment, also soft.
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Spain increases its Algerian energy dependence
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ARI Nº 66-2002 - 7.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Algeria is Spain's main energy supplier, with a market share much higher than the second supplier and almost twice as large as the third. Although the "secure supply" concept is now in vogue thanks to a recent European guideline project, Spain has been working along these lines for quite some time. In 1998, it prohibited any country from having more than a 60% market share in gas supplies. This limit has always been considered indicative and, judging from the most recent energy plan, it does not seem that the Spanish government is going to be rigid in its interpretation.
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Moroccan Parliamentary Elections 2002: Insufficient Efort for Democratic Change
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ARI Nº 65-2002 - 4.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Domingo del Pino
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The Moroccan socialist party obtained the most seats in the recent parliamentary elections. King Mohammed VI will probably entrust the socialist party with the task of forming a government, although the Constitution does not oblige him to do so. It will be a difficult job, due to the country's fragmented political map and the fact that Istiqlal, with almost the same number of votes, will be more demanding in the share-out of ministerial posts and departments.
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The United Nations: Iraqi obligations
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ARI Nº 63-2002 - 9.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Carlota García Encina and Alicia Sorroza Blanco
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Eleven years ago, after the Gulf War, the United Nations proposed the disarming of Iraq in order to avoid new risks to international security. This objective has still not been accomplished due to the systematic violation of the obligations imposed on the Government of Iraq, and which have been contained in the numerous resolutions adopted by the Security Council. With respect to the current debate on the legitimacy and the legality of an eventual attack on Iraq, it is essential to be familiar with the obligations that have been imposed on the Iraqi regime to date.
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The essential Madrid-Algiers axis
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ARI Nº 61-2002 - 8.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Before the present decade, relations between Spain and Algeria were slight and rather cold, a situation clearly reflected in their specific worldviews, the fruit of divergent political experiences. This phase will come to an end in October with the first state visit to Spain to be made by an Algerian President. During the course of the aforesaid visit several important agreements will be signed in order to promote both political and economic relations between the two nations.
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Oil, geopolitics in the Middle East and OPEC
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ARI Nº 54-2002 - 9.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Alejandro Vigil García
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The Middle East and OPEC are and will continue to be, the key to guaranteeing a sufficient supply of energy at a reasonable price. For this reason, achieving stability in the region is an increasingly important goal for the good health of the world economy and global security.
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Oil: the next Spanish-Moroccan conflict?
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ARI Nº 49-2002 - 13.9.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Morocco's energy shortage may be the cause of future discord between the governments of Rabat and Madrid. The exploration and drilling permits granted on either side of the Alboran Sea could inflict deep wounds in Spanish-Moroccan relations, particularly if oil is found. On the other hand, another potential conflict exists with respect to the possibility of finding oil in the waters of the Sahara. While these matters would not necessarily worsen Spanish-Moroccan relations, there is a risk that they may further thwart an understanding between the two countries.
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Perejil/Leila: Lessons for Europe. Why Have All Failed?
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ARI Nº 28-2002 - 19.7.2002
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Álvaro de Vasconçelos
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The most shocking aspect of the current crisis is that in the year or so since the Morrocan ambassador was recalled from Madrid, diplomacy has failed on both sides to find solutions to the dispute that poisons relations between Morroco and Spain.
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