ARI - International Terrorism

International Terrorism - ARI

ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : International Terrorism

AQIM’s existing –and disrupted– plans in –and from– the Sahel

Expert Comment 32/2013 - 16/4/2013

Fernando Reinares

The French military intervention in northern Mali has disrupted the Jihadist condominium that is being established there. However, this should not be taken to mean that AQIM, the terrorist organisation leading the joint project with its likeminded partners, has been defeated or even critically damaged. Nor that it has given up its plans as a global Jihad actor.

The EU’s Approach to Recent Developments in the Sahelian Terrorist Sanctuary

Expert Comment 23/2012 - 1/10/2012

Fernando Reinares

Helping to prevent the consolidation of a jihadist condominium in northern Mali, including support for regionally concerted military action, should lead Europeans to reflect on their own responsibility in the growth of terrorism in the area.

FATA in Northern Mali?

Expert Comment 15/2012 - 31/7/2012

Fernando Reinares

Between April and June of 2012 three Jihadist organisations have managed to jointly impose their rigorist Islamist control over some 1.5 million inhabitants in northern Mali, a vast desert area of around 850,000 square kilometres between Mauritania, Algeria and Niger.

Global Terrorism and Nuclear Proliferation after 9/11 (ARI)

ARI 151/2011 - 21/11/2011

Robert S. Litwak

Arguably, the more likely route by which terrorists might gain access to nuclear or other WMD capabilities is not through the possible collaboration between ‘rogue states’ and terrorist groups but through theft from improperly-secured sites in countries like Pakistan.

Australian Jihad: Radicalisation and Counter-Terrorism (ARI)

ARI 140/2011 - 18/10/2011

Sam Mullins

‘Home-grown’ Islamist terrorism has developed in Australia in a comparable pattern to other Western countries. The Australian counter-terrorism strategy is similar to that in the UK, including the recent introduction of community-based preventive initiatives.

A Critical Assessment of the US National Strategy for Counterterrorism: A Missed Opportunity? (ARI)

ARI 128/2011 - 7/9/2011

Paul Smith

Neither the new 2011 US National Strategy for Counterterrorism, nor the recently published counter-radicalisation strategy provide a template upon which Federal, State and local law enforcement and civilian agencies could effectively plan the future US defence against terrorism. Has an opportunity been lost?

The Impact of the Arab Awakening on Muslim Radicalization in Europe: A Preliminary Assessment (ARI)

ARI 120/2011 - 14/7/2011

Lorenzo Vidino

While it is premature to draw conclusions, there are reasons to believe that the events of the Arab Awakening are not triggering a wave of radicalisation among European Muslims but might actually decrease it.

Current Moroccan Anti-Terrorism Policy (ARI)

ARI 89/2011 - 13/5/2011

Jack Kalpakian

Legal, social and religious reforms shape Morocco’s counter-terrorism. Though the policy has worked, in general, there have been reversals with human rights shortcomings and corruptions which affect these reforms. Returning to reform in counterterrorism should involve the Moroccan public.

Al-Qaeda’s Persistent Sanctuary (ARI)

ARI 67/2011 - 13/4/2011

Seth G. Jones

With growing instability across the Arab world, it has become de rigueur to argue that the primary al-Qaeda threat now comes from the Persian Gulf or North Africa. While these regions certainly present a threat to Western security, al-Qaeda’s primary command and control structure remains situated in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border regions.

Beyond Protection: In the Wake of the Moscow Domodedovo Airport Terrorist Attack (ARI)

ARI 19/2011 - 3/2/2011

Ekaterina Stepanova

The failure of counterintelligence to prevent and pre-emptively disrupt terrorist plans and networks is highlighted in this paper as the single most critical flaw highlighted by the Domodedovo attack and other recent terrorist incidents in Russia.

Alerts, alarms and threats: how much should the people of Europe be told? (ARI)

ARI 153/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2010

Fernando Reinares

A public awareness campaign about what al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups keep trying to do in Western Europe should neither raise alarm nor minimise the problem.

How the Terrorist Attacks of 2001 Have Signalled a Fundamental Change in the Nature of Conflict (ARI)

ARI 135/2010 - 14/9/2010

Sebastian L. v. Gorka

There are still fundamental questions to be answered on the nature of conflict post-9/11 and our existing understanding of war must be reassessed.

Jihadism in Portugal: Grasping a Nebulous Reality (ARI)

ARI 113/2010 - 1/7/2010

Diogo Noivo

Although for the most part inconclusive, signs of possible Jihadist activity in Portugal suggest certain similarities with the risks present throughout Europe.

The Homegrown Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland (ARI)

ARI 171/2009 - 18/12/2009

Lorenzo Vidino

Radicalisation into violence affects some small segments of the American Muslim population and recent events show that a threat from homegrown terrorism of jihadist inspiration does exist in the US.

Countering Terrorism and Building Cooperation in North Africa: The Potential Significance of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (ARI)

ARI 162/2009 - 1/12/2009

Eric Rosand

The UN Strategy for North Africa can contribute to a recalibration of counterterrorism efforts in the region and to a stronger cooperation among regional stakeholders and between the region and external partners such as the EU, the UN and the US.

Road to Salvation? The Military Offensive in South Waziristan and the Pakistani Nexus of Global Terrorism (ARI)

ARI 147/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2009

Fernando Reinares

The authorities in Pakistan have launched a military offensive in South Waziristan in an effort to neutralise the threat that Therik e Taliban Pakistan and al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups pose for the political stability and social cohesion of a country that has nuclear weapons. But the terrorism nexus that these groups represent is more complicated than appears at first glance, and confronting the challenge that these extremists pose means the army’s intervention must be complemented with other kinds of measures on the part of the government.

CONTEST (2009): An Evaluation of Revisions to the UK Counter-Terrorism Strategy with a Special Focus on the CBRNE Threat (ARI)

ARI 130/2009 - 11/9/2009

Frank Gregory

A much expanded version of the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy, CONTEST (based around the four CT objectives of: Pursue, Prevent, Protect and Prepare), was published in March 2009.

Closing Remarks by Mr. Jiri Šedivý

23/7/2009

Jiri Šedivý

Closing remarks by Ambassador Jiri Šedivý, NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Policy and Planning, at the Seminar ‘Civil Society Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights’ organised by the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, the Embassy of Switzerland and the Elcano Royal Institute, and held in Madrid from 15 to 16 June 2009.

International Terrorism and the Rule of Law

24/6/2009

Hisashi Owada

Keynote speech by the President of the International Court of Justice Hisashi Owada at the Seminar ‘Civil Society Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights’ organised by the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, the Embassy of Switzerland and and the Elcano Royal Institute and held in Madrid from 15 to 16 June 2009.

Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights

(Translated from Spanish) - 16/6/2009

Enrique Múgica Herzog

Speech by the Spanish Ombudsman Enrique Múgica Herzog at the Seminar ‘Civil Society Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights’ organised by the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, the Embassy of Switzerland and the Elcano Royal Institute and held in Madrid from 15 to 16 June 2009.

Al-Qaeda Terrorism and Islamist Extremism in East Africa (ARI)

ARI 96/2009 - 5/6/2009

Ángel Rabasa

Chaos in Somalia has created opportunities that have been exploited by radical groups with links to al-Qaeda.

Global Terrorism: A Polymorphous Phenomenon (ARI)

ARI 65/2009 - 21/4/2009

Fernando Reinares

This ARI describes and analyses the various components observed in the current web of global terrorism. The risks and threats that terrorism related directly or indirectly to al-Qaeda pose for a given country or region of the world depend on how the various components eventually combine.

The Evolving Threat from Jihadist Terrorism in Turkey (ARI)

ARI 26/2009 - 16/2/2009

Guido Steinberg

If the trend towards the integration of Turkish Jihadists into larger transnational networks continues, the threat from Jihadist terrorism is likely to grow in Turkey and in countries in which there are sizable Turkish diaspora communities.

Targeting Energy Infrastructure: Examining the Terrorist Threat in North Africa and its Broader Implications (ARI)

ARI 25/2009 - 13/2/2009

Jennifer Giroux

This paper analyses the terrorist threats to energy infrastructures in North Africa –with a specific focus on events in the Sudan and Algeria, where oil and gas resources have been targeted–, at the statements made by al-Qaeda in this regard and at the protection strategies which are needed.

Hamas, Al-Qaeda and the Islamisation of the Palestinian Cause (ARI)

ARI 19/2009 - 30/1/2009

Jonathan Fighel

Under Hamas’s rule, a radical Islamic entity has been established in Gaza, opposed to the national-secular Fatah movement, and pro al-Qaeda groups have started to emerge and carry out attacks against western targets in the Strip.

Remarks by Ambassador Eduardo Aguirre: ‘Radical Islamism in and from the North of Africa and the Horn of Africa’

(Translated from Spanish) - 8/7/2008

Eduardo Aguirre

Remarks by the U.S Ambassador to Spain and Andorra Eduardo Aguirre at the International Conference “Islamic Radicalization In and From North and the Horn of Africa: Implications for European and Transnational Counterterrorism”, co-organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, the U.S Department of State and the University Rey Juan Carlos University.

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