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Europe - ARI |
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The EU’s Progress Report on Turkey’s Accession: Stalling Reform (ARI)
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ARI 143/2008 - 6/11/2008
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William Chislett
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The European Commission’s annual
report on Turkey’s progress towards full EU membership showed
that little progress had been made over the last year. It continued
to raise serious concerns about freedom of expression, the
independence of the judiciary and the military’s interference
in political life, among other issues.
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Don’t Hold Your Breath (Yet) for a Settlement in Cyprus (ARI)
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ARI 141/2008 - 4/11/2008
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Nathalie Tocci
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After decades of ongoing intercommunal disputes between Greek Cypriots
and Turkish Cypriots, and for the first time since 2004 when a peace
process brokered by the UN failed, the leaders of the two communities
on the island have re-launched negotiations for a federal solution.
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The Slovenian Presidency of the EU Council: How the 16th Member State Performed (ARI)
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ARI 105/2008 - 16/9/2008
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Sabina Kajnc
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The Slovenian Presidency of the Council of the EU in the first half of
2008 was symbolic in terms of rounding off the 2004/07 Enlargements of
the European Union (EU) by testing the ability of a new member state to
engage actively in EU politics. The
challenges Slovenia had to face during its term in office, however,
exceeded the merely symbolic and pointed to shortcomings, with lessons
for the EU, for future Presidencies and for each member state.
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The Lima Summit: A Meeting of Euro-Latin American Asymmetry (ARI)
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ARI 58/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/7/2008
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Günther Maihold
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The fifth edition of the LAC-EU Summit did not manage to escape the
contradictions present at the previous meetings, although this time the
Latin American and Caribbean Presidents clearly articulated their
desire to receive a European response to the increasing heterogeneity
in Latin America within a framework of fundamental asymmetry in the
bi-regional relationship.
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After Ireland: Referendum and Unanimity (ARI)
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ARI 62/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/7/2008
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Carlos Closa
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After the ‘No’ vote in the referendum held in
Ireland on 12 June, and in view of the unanimity requirement for treaty
ratification among member countries, the entry into force of the Lisbon
Treaty faces a setback. A new period of uncertainty has commenced in
the process of European integration.
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The new Eastern border of Schengen area and the irregular immigration into and from Poland (ARI)
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ARI 49/2008 -12/5/2008
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Krystyna Iglicka
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Poland has been forced to design a stricter migratory regime firstly for EU accession and secondly, for entering Schengen espace. Since December 2007 Polish eastern frontier (stretching across 1,200 kilometres from the Baltic to the Carpathians) has become one of the few points in Europe at which it is possible to control human spatial mobility on the east-west axis.
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Slovenia's EU Presidency: ‘Si.nergy for Europe’
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ARI 41/2008 - 10/4/2008
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Irena Brinar
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This
ARI looks at the main challenges faced by the Slovenian Presidency of
the EU as the first of the group of countries that joined the Union
in 2004.
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Gordon Brown and Hard-Headed Internationalism (ARI)
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ARI 129/2007 - 10/12/2007
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David Mathieson
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Gordon Brown is about to complete his first semester as British
Prime Minister and it is now possible to assess some of the changes which he
has made to foreign policy. This new vision, which combines multilateralism with interventionism, he describes
as 'hard headed internationalism'.
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Is There a Divide Between Europe’s Elites and its Citizens? (ARI)
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ARI 71/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/9/2007
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Antonio Barroso
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This work aims to analyse the opinions of Spanish Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) regarding Spain’s membership of the EU, and to compare them to the attitudes of the citizens themselves concerning the integration process.
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Kosovo: From Russia with Love...(ARI)
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ARI 88/2007 - 25/7/2007
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Tim Judah
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Kosovo is the last remaining piece in the jigsaw of the former Yugoslavia that remains to be settled. However, Western plans to move Kosovo along a smooth transition to independence via the United Nations have been sunk by Russia’s refusal to accede to this. On 20 July, Western countries, in the face of Russian opposition, finally abandoned attempts to pass a resolution on Kosovo in the Security Council.
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Turkey’s Election: Islamists Deal a Blow to the Secular Establishment (ARI)
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ARI 86/2007 - 24/7/2007
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William Chislett
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The Justice and Development (AKP) Party, which has its roots in political Islam, was returned to office after it won a landslide victory in early elections called to resolve a crisis with the powerful military, backed by the secular establishment, over who should be the country’s next President.
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How Will the Turkish Military React? (ARI)
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ARI 80/2007 - 16/7/2007
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Soner Cagaptay
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Since the 1990s, the Turkish military have emerged as
a force defending Turkey’s secular democracy in the political realm. How will
they react towards the upsurge in Islamic influence and the other issues facing
the country?
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Poland and Voting in the Council (ARI)
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ARI 66/2007 - 15/6/2007
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Piotr Maciej Kaczynski
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The Polish government has made public its desire to renegotiate the voting system in the Council. The main reason is that the voting system envisaged in the Constitution implies a huge loss of voting power with respect to Germany and a break-up of the accession package which brought Poland to the EU.
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Turkey’s Military Throw Down the Gauntlet (ARI)
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ARI 51/2007 - 7/5/2007
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William Chislett
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The nomination of the Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gül, of the ruling moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), as a candidate for the Presidency has led to a political crisis in Turkey.
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Support for Globalisation and the Welfare State (ARI)
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ARI 129/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 21/2/2007
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Ismael Sanz and Ferrán Martínez
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The aim of this analysis is to verify whether support for globalisation is greater in countries whose Social Security systems are most extensive.
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The OSCE in Unabated Decline (ARI)
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ARI 1/2007 - 12/1/2007
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Pál Dunay
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This paper assesses the situation and
prospects of the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) in
light of the experience of the past few years and the ambitions the organisation
set itself in its reform agenda. The analysis argues that, irrespective of how
banal it may be, in the absence of a fundamental change in the attitude of the
participating states it is highly unlikely for the OSCE to regain the role it
once had. Either it continues to lose its relevance or at best muddles through
as it has done since the mid-1990s.
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Update of the National Reform Programme to Achieve the Aims of the Lisbon Strategy: Is Spain Meeting European Standards? (ARI)
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ARI 116/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/12/2006
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Carlos Mulas-Granados
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This analysis will evaluate the update of Spain’s National Reform Programme (NRP) to comply with the aims of the Lisbon Strategy that was approved by the Council of Ministers last 13 October and sent to Brussels for the second year running. It argues that Spain has given ample coverage to areas in which the Commission requested it to be more explicit in its evaluation of the original NRP from last year and has been very transparent when evaluating the progress made in relation to the different aims. Nevertheless, Spain, just like the majority of European countries, still has to work harder to increase visibility of the Lisbon Strategy among its citizens.
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Who fears globalization in the EU? (ARI)
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ARI 100/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/10/2006
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Ismael Sanz and Ferrán Martínez i Coma
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Globalization has become a controversial subject that raises great suspicion. This work, based on the Eurobarometer carried out by the European Commission in late 2003, addresses the question of who fears globalization and why?
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To Enlarge or Not to Enlarge the Union: That is Not the Question
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ARI 67 /2006 - 4.7.2006
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José Ignacio Torreblanca
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In a considerable number of European capitals the possibility is being discussed of closing the doors of the European Union to new members as part of a possible solution to the constitutional crisis. In France, specifically, but also in Austria and other capitals, this issue seems to dominate the provisional agenda for the next European Council to be held in Brussels on 15-16 June. However, the argument put forward in this analysis is that the problems experienced by the Union have nothing to do with enlargement but with depth
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The Cartoon Crisis Revisited: A Danish Perspective
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ARI 65/2006 - 2.6.2006
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Tim Jensen
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The analysis that follows does not present a series of strategic plans to help solve all the problems related to the cartoon crisis as it ignited in Denmark and spread elsewhere. It simply attempts to shed a little more light on aspects of the specific Danish context as well as on the handling of the crisis. It outlines a number of fundamental issues and discusses the international context and mentions some lessons that it is hoped have now been learnt
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Alliance of Civilisations or ‘Alliance of the Civilised’?
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ARI 41/2006 - 3.4.2006
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Shaun Riordan
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The successes of the Alliance of Civilisations have been largely presentational. While the need for a new focus in diplomacy in the 21st century is undeniable, the Alliance of Civilisations does not fill the gap. It suffers both theoretical and practical problems, above all in its focus on the conflicts and differences between civilisations and their values, which could even worsen the global climate. However, instead of abandoning it, the Alliance of Civilisations can be reformed, especially by focusing on concrete problems and giving a greater role to NGOs.
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The State of the Union: Period of Reflection or the Sound of Silence
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ARI 29/2006 - 2.3.2006
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Barbara Lippert and Timo Goosmann
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The recent issue of EU-25 Watch, a joint European project in which the Elcano Royal Institute participates, provides a valuable insight into national debates on key EU topics such as the Constitutional treaty, enlargement, foreign policy and the Lisbon agenda during the so-called ‘reflection period’. The analysis of this broad overview prepared by authors from all EU member states plus Bulgaria, Rumania, Croatia and Turkey suggests five observations regarding the current ‘state of the Union’
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Spain and the European Union: Country Update for the EU/25 Watch
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ARI 28/2006 - 1.3.2006
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José I. Torreblanca and Alicia Sorroza
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The most recent issue of EU-25 Watch, a joint European project in which the Elcano Royal Institute participates, provides a valuable insight into the national debates on key EU topics such as the constitutional treaty, enlargement, foreign policy and the Lisbon agenda during the so-called ‘reflection period’. This ARI reviews the country study on Spain and Spain’s European policy
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Denmark: The Ugly Duckling in International Politics?
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ARI 19/2006 - 22.2.2006
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Ulla Holm
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This analysis deals with the publication of the Danish cartoons on Mohammed. It has released a Danish identity crisis both with regard to Danish foreign policy and to domestic identity
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Presidential Elections in Portugal: Cavaquism, Sebastianism and Popular Hopes
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ARI 10/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 7.2.2006
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Antonio R. Rubio Plo
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Former prime minister Aníbal Cavaco Silva has been elected in the first round of the Portuguese Republic’s presidential elections. His anticipated victory reflects the expectations of voters who, at a time of economic and social crisis in Portugal, have chosen a charismatic leader capable of going beyond mere protocol and working actively in the presidency to solve the country’s problems
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The United States, Germany and the New Balance of Power in Europe
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ARI 9/2006 - 20.1.2006
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Soeren Kern
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The meeting paved the way for an easing of tensions between Germany and the United States after three years of friction. In what Merkel called the opening of a ‘new chapter’ in US-German relations, she promised to work closely with Washington to achieve a common approach to the nuclear crisis in Iran. The two leaders also laid the groundwork for greater cooperation in the war on terror. And in an important shift in German policy, Merkel proclaimed that ‘NATO is the forum’ for transatlantic discussions about security. As American strategists digest all the good news, however, they will be most happy about her indirect repudiation of the long-standing Franco-German axis. Merkel’s efforts to strengthen Germany’s bilateral ties with pro-American allies such as Britain and Poland will restore to Berlin its traditional role as mediator between Europe and America. Merkel’s ascendancy will therefore re-establish a healthy balance in Europe, one that is Atlanticist in outlook
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An Ethical and Political Commitment to Africa
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20.12.2005
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Miguel Ángel Moratinos
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Article by Miguel Ángel Moratinos, Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, written in the aftermath of his recent trip to six Sub-Saharan countries, during which he discussed inmigration, development and the fight against hunger
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The EU-China Relationship: A Key to the 21st Century Order
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ARI 142/2005 - 30.11.2005
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Alfredo Pastor and David Gosset
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For the EU, China’s opening up to the world is a test. Brussels is in the process of conceiving an ambitious and comprehensive foreign policy towards Beijing but, for both internal and external reasons (a lack of general European cohesiveness and the influence of the US), is finding it difficult to fully implement it. Even if there is no necessary contradiction between a strong Euro-Chinese link and the traditional –and vital– transatlantic relationship, a positive triangulation between the EU/US and China would require a politically united EU willing to act as a strategic player in world affairs. In that sense, for the world’s largest trading block, the integration of one-fifth of mankind into what we call the mainstream is not only a test but also an impulse for further political deepening. Europe is being asked to face its historical responsibility, and this task might help focus the Union’s energies and divert it from other issues, perhaps more urgent, but certainly less important.
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Five Specific Questions for General Disagreement: The Hampton Court Summit and the UK Presidency
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ARI 126/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 28.10.2005
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José I. Torreblanca
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The UK presidency has put in motion an initiative of questionable use. Furthermore, it has done so from a position that is structurally at odds with Tony Blair’s clear desire to exercise leadership. The following analysis provides hypothetical content for a possible Spanish response to the questions that Blair posed in his letter of invitation to the EU’s leaders. The conclusion is clear: Spain fully shares the concerns laid out by the UK presidency and, precisely for this reason, should ask the UK to put aside its historic distrust of European integration and equip the European Union with the powers and resources necessary to address these concerns. (Please note that the original Spanish version of this paper was published on Tuesday, October 25, 2005.)
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Turkish Delight: The EU Begins Accession Negotiations
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ARI 122/2005 - 4.10.2005
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William Chislett
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The French and Dutch rejections of the European constitution, widely seen as a blow to enlargement, have hardened the atmosphere against Turkey and will make the country’s accession process even tougher. The negotiations are open-ended and could be called off at the slightest failure on Turkey’s part. The earliest date for membership, if all goes well, is 2015
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Britain’s Presidency of the EU: All Change or Plus ça Change...?
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ARI 114/2005 - 22.9.2005
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David Mathieson
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The British presidency of the European Union (EU) coincides with the most profound crisis in the organisation’s 50-year history. Tony Blair has initiated an ambitious agenda for debate in the search for solutions but, on a number of issues, he will find it difficult to achieve a consensus for change
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The Missing Link? Zapatero, Blair and the Future of Europe
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ARI 102/2005 - 22.7.2005
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David Mathieson
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José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero will meet Tony Blair in London next week to discuss the future of the European Union (EU) and ways in which they can improve the bi-lateral relationship between London and Madrid
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The 7 July London Bombings: Islamic Extremism Strikes Again
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ARI 99/2005 - 19.7.2005
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Peter Lehr
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London and its citizens were expecting a major terrorist attack basically since 11 September 2001. The question was never ‘whether’ such an attack would take place, but rather ‘when’ it would happen. On Thursday, 7 July, it finally did happen. This article will focus on the aftermath of the attacks and the fall-out for London, the UK, and Europe as a whole.
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London Terrorist Attacks: the Impact of 7/7 on British Muslims
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ARI 95/2005 - 12.7.2005
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Humayun Ansari
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This ARI explores the implications of the London terrorist bombings of 7 July 2005 for British Muslims, and considers the various reactions and perceptions among Britain’s Muslim communities in the immediate aftermath of these atrocities. It examines the emerging impact of the bombings on British Muslims, and the ways in which the British authorities are responding to their concerns
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A ‘Plan B’ for the European Constitution: ‘Looking the Other Way’
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ARI 77/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 11.7.2005
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José I. Torreblanca
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On 16-17 June, political leaders at the European Council had to come up with a way to deal with the difficult situation created by the double No to the European Constitution delivered by France and Holland. However, both the lack of a unanimous response to the constitutional crisis and the inability to unblock the 2007-2013 budget negotiations have taken the European integration project to a very serious crisis.
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Why the Euro is Essential to the Future of Europe: Part I
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ARI 75/2005 - 9.6.2005
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Paul Isbell
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A sense of haplessness, together with a short-sighted desire to find a quick fix for economic problems, has prompted a growing number of European policy makers and commentators to focus their fear and confusion on a new target: the euro
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The new European Gendarmerie Force
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ARI 48/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 9.5.2005
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Enrique Esquivel Lalinde
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The purpose of this analysis is to describe the new force, the European Gendarmerie Force, which undoubtedly is to become a valuable asset in all kinds of crisis management operations. We will review what it involves, how it was created, what are its lines of action and, finally, its place within the European framework
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How to Explain the Unexpected: An Assessment of the French Constitutional Referendum
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ARI 57/2005 - 6.5.2005
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Gaëtane Ricard-Nihoul & Morgan Larhant
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When the French referendum on the European Constitution is considered from abroad it appears to be full of paradoxes. First, although the major political parties have officially endorsed the text, there is still an enormous uncertainty as to the outcome. All the polls since mid-march have indeed placed the ‘no’ side in a leading position. Secondly, although only the first two parts of the text present new elements, the debate has so far centered on the third part. Some of the basic principles of the Rome Treaty of 1957, such as free competition and the four freedoms of movement now appear excessively liberal to be ‘engraved’ in a constitution. Thirdly, despite the intensity of the debate the campaign has mainly focused on issues that are unrelated to the Constitution (for instance, the Bolkestein directive and Turkish membership of the EU). These paradoxes underscore the need to analyse the ongoing French debate and to advance a few explanatory factors.
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The Spanish Defence Industry in the Face of Sector Consolidation in Europe (ARI)
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ARI N 44/2005 - 20/4/2005
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Ignacio Cosidó
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The Spanish defence industry has gone through a decade of strong growth, largely as a result of its participation in large-scale programmes for the procurement of military platforms. However, this growth model appears to have run its course and Spain’s industrial sector must be adapted to an increasingly integrated European defence market and to the new strategic and technological demands of the Armed Forces. This reform will require that a strategy be developed for the participation of Spanish industry in the process of European consolidation, a revision of the Defence Ministry’s current procurement policy, and a change in the sector’s mentality and structure. All this should be reflected in a White Paper on the Spanish Industrial Defence Sector, prepared jointly by the Government and industry.
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Who Abstained and Why? Voter Turnout for the Referendum on the Treaty to Establish a European Constitution
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ARI 34/2005 - 5.4.2005
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Eva Anduiza Perea
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A voter turnout rate of 42.3% was registered in the referendum on the European Constitution. Analysis of the available data leads to the following conclusions. First, territorial distribution patterns were very similar to those of the latest European elections. Second, voter turnout revealed a clear sociological profile: abstention was greatest among women, people under 25 years of age, people with the lowest educational levels, the unemployed and housewives. Abstention can thus be interpreted more as a sign of indifference than of rejection. Third, turnout was highest among voters sympathetic to leftist ideology and fourth, an unusually high number of blank and spoiled ballots were cast.
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Hartz IV in Context: The German Way to Employability
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ARI 38/2005 - 18.3.2005
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Irene Dingeldey
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In contrast with other European economies such as the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and the UK, the reunified Germany was unable to solve its severe labour market crisis during the 1990s. It was only at the end of the 1990s that Germany also started reforms and enhanced employability as a new goal of its labour market policy, thereby following the approach of its neighbours and the forecasted European employment strategy. In 2005 the latest labour market reforms came into force with Hartz IV. In order to describe the new relations between citizens and the welfare state implied by the so-called activating ‘labour market policy’, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder coined the slogan ‘Challenge and Support’. In the following analysis we will try to understand this German way towards employability
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Spain’s Referendum on the European Constitution: a Double Disappointment
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ARI 27/2005 (Translation from Spanish) - 21.2.2005
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José Ignacio Torreblanca
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Despite the huge majority in favour of the European Constitution, the low turnout (42.32%, ie, seventeen points lower than turnout in 1986 when Spain’s membership of NATO was at stake) calls into question the Government’s two objectives in calling the referendum. The referendum has neither served to open a new space of democratic participation for Spanish society, nor will it serve to export enthusiasm to the rest of the EU in regard to ratification of the Constitutional Treaty. By breaking the psychological barrier of 40% turnout, the referendum cannot be described as a failure, but in view of such low participation the dual purpose can hardly be said to have been fulfilled
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The three points of dissensus on the European Constitution
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ARI 22/2005 - 21.2.2005
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José Ignacio Torreblanca
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After years of consensus on European issues in our country, the process of ratifying the European Constitution has revealed significant differences regarding the European Union. The new dissensus on Europe is visible in the three main points of the political debate: at the civic level, in the growing distance between the opinions and attitudes of the political class, on one hand, and citizens on the other; in terms of ideology, in the appearance of major tension between the left and the right, but also –and this is new– within the left and the right; and finally, at the territorial level, in the discrepancies over tactics and principles among old and new nationalist parties. In these circumstances, it is reasonable to wonder if the first victim of this new dissensus will be the referendum on the European Constitution. And if so, what will the consequences be?
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Gibraltar: Alternative Diplomacy
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ARI Nº 198/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 22.12.2004
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Luis Romero Bartumeus
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The Spanish Government’s new policy on Gibraltar implies once again lending importance to the idea, based on proximity, cooperation and dialogue with all parties involved (including the Gibraltarians and their leaders), of aiming to remove distrust and create an adequate climate for reaching agreements, without impositions, but also without relinquishing the notion of recovering sovereignty.
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Spanish-US Economic Relations: How Important are the Aznar-Zapatero Gyrations?
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ARI Nº 197/2004 - 22.12.2004
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Paul Isbell
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While the Spanish-US economic relationship arguably remains relatively underdeveloped, our tentative conclusion is that the impact on the bilateral economic relationship of the Aznar-Zapatero gyrations in Spain’s political relationship with the US has proved relatively insignificant and is likely to remain marginal in the future
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EU-Turkey Membership Deal, Subject to de facto Recognition of Greek Cyprus
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ARI Nº 196/2004 - 20.12.2004
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William Chislett
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This report examines the historic agreement taken by European Union leaders at their 16-17 December summit in Brussels to begin accession talks with Turkey after 41 years in Europe’s ante-room. The process will begin on 3 October, 2005 provided Turkey has by then tacitly recognised Cyprus, which joined the EU in May. Turkey invaded the island in 1974 and it has been divided since then. Both the previous Popular Party government (1996-2004) and the current Socialist administration have been among the most active supporters of Turkey’s membership
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European Commission Recommends Accession Negotiations with Turkey, but with Certain Conditions
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ARI Nº 152/2004 - 7.10.2004
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William Chislett
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This report analyses the European Commission’s landmark report on Turkey and its momentous recommendation to the next European Council meeting on December 17 in Brussels to start accession negotiations, 41 years after the country became an associate member of the then EEC. The Commission also issued a detailed impact study. Both the previous Popular Party government (1996-2004) and the current Socialist administration have been among the most active supporters of Turkey’s membership
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Barroso’s Labours
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ARI Nº 150/2004 - 4.10.2004
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Álvaro de Vasconcelos
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The central issue for the new President of the European Commission, José Manuel Durão Barroso, is whether he will be able to regain for the Commission the central role in the construction of Europe that it had in the past, and thereby reverse the tendency towards a ‘loss of authority’ that both Jacques Santer and Romano Prodi were unable to put a stop to
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The New Legislative and Budgetary Competences of the European Parliament in the European Constitution
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ARI Nº 129/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 20.7.2004
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Manuel Delgado-Iribarren García Campero
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This article looks at the new legislative and budgetary competences of the European Parliament under the Treaty establishing a Constitution for the European Union, according to the text approved by the Heads of State or Government of the EU at the summit meeting held in Brussels on 18 June 2004. In quoting the text the article uses the consolidated version drawn up by the General Secretariat of the Council on 2 July 2004 (CIG 86/04)
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Ratification of the Constitution of the EU: A Minefield
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ARI Nº 120/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 7.7.2004
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Carlos Closa Montero
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On 18 June the Brussels summit gave the go-ahead to the draft Constitution which now moves into its final phase. The text has to be ratified, unanimously, by all Member States through a variety of procedures, so there is still a real possibility of the whole process floundering. This article is a brief survey of the ratification procedures to be employed and the pitfalls that might appear. It also looks at the possible effects on the legitimacy of the Union
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Hispano-Argentine relations and Basque terrorism
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ARI Nº 116/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.6.2004
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Carlos Malamud
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On 17 June the Argentine federal judge Claudio Bonadío threw out the request for extradition of the presumed Basque terrorist Jesús María Iriondo presented by the Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón. The aim of this article is to analyse how this will affect bilateral relations between Spain and Argentina, which of late both sides had been attempting to improve
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European Growth: Myth, Reality and Necessity (Part II)
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ARI Nº 118/2004 - 5.7.2004
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Paul Isbell
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Europe has lower per capita incomes than the US basically because it has traded off its striking productivity gains over the last 30 years for more leisure, rather than for more income. However, such a trade-off is not likely to remain feasible in the future, nor would it be wise for Europe to attempt to continue making it, if the EU wishes to maintain its economic model and make a positive difference in the world
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European Growth: Myth, Reality and Necessity (Part I)
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ARI Nº 117/2004 - 5.7.2004
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Paul Isbell
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While the perception that the US economy has left Europe far behind is exaggerated and distorted, it is true that Europe has not closed the per capita income gap with the US over the last three decades
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Keys to Understanding Abstention in the European Elections
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ARI Nº 112/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 2.7.2004
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José Ignacio Torreblanca
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Participation in the recent European elections has been of only 45.5%. This paper looks at the causes, and at some of the implications, of such a high level of abstention.
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The Socialist Government, the European Constitution and the Dual Majority (ARI)
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ARI Nº 103/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/6/2004
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José I. Torreblanca
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After a period of reflection lasting several weeks, the incoming Socialist government recently revealed which power-sharing formula for the Council of Ministers of the European Union it will defend at the intergovernmental conference (IGC) responsible for ratifying the draft European constitution. Spain's official position is that acts of the Council can be adopted only when they are sanctioned by a majority of member states and two thirds of the population (the formula known as '50-66')
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The Reform of the EU's Cohesion Policy
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ARI Nº 100/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004
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José A. Herce and Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
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In part due to the natural convergence of the average Spanish income with the EU average and in part due to the arrival of new, poorer partners to the EU (the statistical effect), the resources allocated to cohesion will be directed towards the new members. As a result, Spain will no longer benefit from the cohesion fund and several regions could lose their structural aid after 2006. The Commission is finalising its proposals and the Council will decide on them in the coming months
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From 9-11 to 3-11: Spain’s Role in the European Union
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ARI Nº 48/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004
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Carlos Closa Montero
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September 11 has had an impact on the EU and the processes underway since then, especially the negotiations on the Constitution. Now, March 11 poses new questions regarding the possible repercussions of the terrible terrorist attacks committed in Madrid.
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More than just a promise
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ARI Nº 83/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004
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Xavier Batalla
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José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s decision to repatriate immediately the Plus Ultra Brigade, deployed in the southern-central region of Iraq by the Aznar government, is more than simple fulfilment of an election pledge
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Renegotiating the Nice Agreement: Spain in the European Parliament
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ARI Nº 105/2004 - 28.5.2004
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Rickard Sandell
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This paper looks at the distribution of relative voting power in the European Parliament. It also explains why it is important for Spain to insist on defending its interests in the constitutional proposal for new voting procedures in the European Council
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For More Realistic and Efficient Spanish-Moroccan Relations (ARI)
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ARI 73/2004 - 4/5/2004
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José María López Bueno
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Historically, the varying quality of Spanish-Moroccan relations has been determined almost exclusively by the vicissitudes of domestic politics in both countries. However, despite the numerous ups and downs, Perejil included, the official rhetoric has always expressed a ‘mutual desire to strengthen fruitful relations between fraternal nations’.It appears necessary to promote a more realistic framework for cross-border relations.
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The enlargement of the European Union
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ARI 84/2004(Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004
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Jorge Fuentes Monzonís-Vilallonga
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The recent EU enlargement taking in ten new members creates fresh expectations within the Continent that will influence community thinking during the next few years
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Does al-Qaeda have a global strategy?
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ARI Nº 74/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004
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Haizam Amirah Fernández
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The attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year are an example of how terrorists, when choosing a place, time and form of action, can help generate reactions which, in turn, have amplified consequences that serve their purposes. A demonstration of this tragic fact is how those who use terror for their political ends have developed an alarming capacity to analyze and predict events. Their understanding of the realities and mechanisms that govern open societies contrasts with the difficulties these societies face when attempting to predict the strategy and methods used by al-Qaedist groups
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The Fight Against Islamist Terrorism After the March 11 Attacks: Lessons Learnt
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ARI Nº 41/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 23.4.2003
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Carlos Echeverría Jesús
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If there is one thing we should learn from recent terrorist actions, it is the terrorists’ ability to surprise us. This first large-scale Islamist attack in Europe has shown that what some dismissed as alarmist scaremongering has now become a reality. To combat this threat we need greater international coordination and cooperation than there has been so far, enhanced preventative capacity and a root-and-branch rethink of existing terrorist policies
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The Madrid Massacre: The Iraq Connection
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ARI Nº 65/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 21.4.2004
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Juan Avilés
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The March 11 terrorist bomb attacks seem to have had two objectives: the general one of striking at the heart of Europe and the much more specific one of forcing a Spanish withdrawal from Iraq. This analysis explores the possibility of a connection between March 11 and the situation in Iraq
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A New Foreign Policy for Spain
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ARI Nº 37/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 30/3/2004
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Miguel Ángel Moratinos
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This is a full transcript of the conference by Miguel Ángel Moratinos, member of the advisory committee of the Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE). The conference was held on 10 March as part of a cycle organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, at which leading politicians presented the foreign policy programmes of their parties. Miguel Ángel Moratinos reviewed the current international scene and explained his party’s proposals for specific areas such as Europe, Latin America and the Arab World.
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Terrorism Revisited (ARI)
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ARI Nº 59/2004 - 30/3/2004
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Tomas Valasek
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One of the desired effects of the Madrid bombing seems to have been to splinter the Western alliance. The allies must see through the trap, acknowledge mistakes, produce a stricter definition of the threat of terrorism and create a new strategy for fighting its sources
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Securitizing Migration after 11 March
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ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003
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James C. Ross
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This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid
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Terrorism in Morocco: a security concern for Spain
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ARI Nº 53/2004 - 24.3.2004
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Domingo del Pino
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The terrorist attacks last May 16 in Casablanca force Spain to pay a greater attention to the state of Morocco’s internal affairs. Eventual instability in Morocco would affect Spain, given the importance of Spanish interests there, of their common sea and land borders and of the nature of the recurrent problems between the two countries. Following is an analysis of how Spanish interests would be affected if the recent attacks eventually led to instability in the Kingdom of Morocco
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The difficult rapprochement between Spain and Equatorial Guinea
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ARI Nº 18/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 26.2.2004
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Carlos Ruiz Miguel
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Various attempts have been made to improve the strained nature of the relationship between Spain and Equatorial Guinea. The strange incident involving the departure and sudden return of the naval vessels Patiño and Canarias demonstrates the difficulty of rebuilding relations between the two countries even at times when their interests appear to converge
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Investment delocalization: challenges and opportunities
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ARI Nº 25/2004 - 25.2.2004
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Pelayo Castro Zuzuárregui, Federico Steinberg
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The diversion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Spain to the new EU members through the growing practice of ‘delocalizing’ production units calls for new and innovative public policies to enable Spain to attract foreign investment in higher value-added sectors.
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European Defence-Lite: Why European Defence is Less about Defence and More About Politics
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ARI Nº 141/2003 - 3.12.2003
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Julian Lindley-French
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One of the primary reasons for the split between Europeans over the war in Iraq was the major European players’ need to maximise their influence in the new Europe. The debate brought to the fore the fact that Spain has emerged as a coherent force that could prevent a tri-rectoire of the big three from determining the EU’s strategic direction. Furthermore, EU enlargement should ensure that closeness to the US remains a pre-requisite of effective security and defence
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Spain and the Intergovernmental Conference: the arguments in favour of retaining Nice
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ARI Nº 125/2003 - 30.10.2003
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Source: Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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As the EU has grown and new States have joined - for the most part small and medium-sized countries in terms of population - the original weighting of votes has had to be revisited, on account of the fact that the increase in the number of small States, when combined with the aforementioned ‘reward’, has resulted in a progressively unbalanced system, whereby a significant number of States representing a small percentage of the EU’s population held a disproportionate amount of power within the Council
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Vote and Veto in the European Union: An Analysis of Spain’s Position at the IGC 2003
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ARI Nº 121/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.10.2003
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José Ignacio Torreblanca
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In line with statements made during and after the Convention, the focal point of the Spanish government’s stance on the draft Constitutional Treaty, now being examined by the Intergovernmental Conference, is its rejection of the decision-making rules for the Council as proposed in Article 24 of the draft Constitution. Instead of the double (simple) majority of member states and the (three fifths) majority by population headcount, the government has gone on record on numerous occasions that it will insist on preserving the agreements reached in Nice as a matter of principle.
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The European Union’s Security Strategy from a Spanish Perspective
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ARI Nº 117/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 9.10.2003
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Félix Arteaga Martín
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This article does not set out to analyze the document presented by the Secretary General and High Representative (hereinafter the Solana Document), but rather makes use of it to compare the interests, objectives and strategies of European and Spanish security. To do this, I have contrasted the Document’s essential guidelines with those defined in similar Spanish documents, although there is a lack of a comprehensive Spanish security strategy that systematizes and makes sense of the security directives that have until now been linked to defence and foreign policies
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Islamist terrorist rings in Spain. Current situation and future outlook
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ARI Nº 119/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 13.10.2003
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Javier Jordán
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We analyse the rise of Islamist terrorist rings, specifically those of Al-Qa’ida, in Spain. To date this country has been used merely as a rearguard area but in the future it could become a direct terrorist target. We examine the reasons for such a change of strategy and propose means to prevent terrorism on Spanish soil
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Europe’s Difficult Moment, Spain’s Tough Position
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ARI Nº 115/2003 - 30.9.2003
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Paul Isbell
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Economic stagnation in Europe has intensified the controversial nature of a number of EU issues, including Euro zone economic policy management and the new Constitutional Treaty, while the Spanish position on these issues has become increasingly problematic
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Driving on the Right or on the Left? The Swedish Euro Referendum from a European Perspective
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ARI Nº 101/2003 - 22.8.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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The Swedish referendum on the euro is set for September 14, 2003. This analysis scrutinizes the Swedish debate to date, and make a critical assessment of the tendency to exaggerate the economic implications of the election and thereby downplaying the significance of the euro for the common economic project of which Sweden already is a full member
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Prospects for the Doha Trade Round
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ARI Nº 100/2003 - 30.7.2003
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Ivan Briscoe
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The current round of trade negotiations that began in Doha in 2001 is struggling to find a way to balance the demands of the developing world with the doubts of Europe and the United States
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Spain’s Atlantic Vocation
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ARI Nº 80/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 2.6.2003
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Emilio Lamo de Espinosa
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Over, above and regardless of the contrasting positions taken by the Spanish government and the opposition parties on the issue of Iraq, the apparent Atlanticism of the Spanish government is being questioned from various quarters. This article argues that it can be defended on five main counts: the fight against ETA terrorism, this being the only explicit reason given by the government; the Europe that is of interest to Spain in establishing a southern Atlantic axis within the EU, especially once the enlargement comes into effect; security along the southern flank of the Mediterranean, the weak point in Spain’s defensive alliances; Spanish investments in Latin America; and, lastly, the emergence of a latino presence in the United States
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Who’s afraid of the Convention?
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ARI Nº 77/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 10.6.2003
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José Ignacio Torreblanca
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Last 23 April, the Praesidium of the Convention published its draft for Title IV, the section dealing with institutional matters, of the planned Constitutional Treaty. This project, which bears the unmistakable stamp of the Convention President, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, has caused a considerable stir among member States and the EU institutions themselves.
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Financing ESDP
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ARI Nº 61/2003 - 21.4.2003
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Dr. Antonio Missiroli
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The European Convention is about to focus on how to improve the ‘constitutional’ provisions in this domain and, once again, the main novelties are expected rather on ESDP than CFSP proper. If ESDP wants to prove its relevance and, possibly, have a positive impact also on CFSP, it has to set the right political and institutional incentives to common action. Financial resources are scarce, appropriate capabilities limited, political will intermittent – at best
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Positioning for a post war intervention: the role of Spain
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ARI Nº 47/2003 - 13.3.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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This analysis focuses on the potential role of Spain in the event of a war against Iraq. Being an advocator of military intervention comes with a set of responsibilities to the Iraqi population, particularly after a military intervention. The analysis points out some of the weaknesses for building sustainable peace after a military intervention, and indicates areas where Spain could play an important role in a post war Iraq.
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Europe’s population: The latest trends and their policy implications
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ARI Nº 32/2003 - 14.2.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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Europe’s population: The latest trends and their policy implications - Rickard Sandell
ARI Nº 32/2003 - 14.2.2003
Europe’s demographic landscape is in constant change. The present analysis takes stock of the latest comparative data for the European Union, released in January 2003. It assesses the main demographic and migratory trends in Europe, and concludes by discussing population policy areas of central importance for Spain.
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Franco-German relations: New look or new deal?
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ARI Nº 27/2003 - 10.2.2003
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Dr. Ulrike Guerot
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The intimate relationship between France and Germany, which has driven European integration for much of the past half century, has been pronounced dead many times over the past years. But those obituaries have proved premature. Once again, with the European Union about to expand to 25 or more members, the relationship faced unprecedented challenges. But a sudden string of important agreements may be breathing new life into the old partnership
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The Spanish Debate on the Future of the European Union
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ARI 125-2002 - 27.12.2002
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Charles Powell
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After successfully completing both the 'listening' and 'study' phases
of its work, in January 2003 the European Convention will finally
embark on the crucial 'decision' phase. The Christmas break thus
provides an excellent opportunity to sit back and examine the
development of Spanish attitudes towards the Convention's work thus far.
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Prospects for Spain–Latin America–Asia-Pacific Triangulation
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ARI Nº 123-2002 - 20.12.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Pablo Bustelo
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Triangulation between Spain, Latin America and Asia-Pacific is one of the initiatives of the Spanish government’s Asia-Pacific Framework Plan 2000-2002. It attempts to take advantage of solid Latin American relations and growing trans-Pacific links to defend Spain’s Asia-Pacific strategic interests.
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The Urgent and Necessary Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy
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ARI Nº 122-2002 - 19.12.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Gonzalo Fanjul Suárez
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Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is up for reform, forced on it by the enlargement of the European Union eastwards, negotiations with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the criticism it received internally for its negative social and environmental impact.
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Finally, the Enlargement: the European Union after the Copenhagen Council
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ARI Nº 121-2002 - 19.12.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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José Ignacio Torreblanca
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The enlargement is a great collective success of the European Union and will be completed under conditions favorable to Spain. However, the challenges presented by this enlargement are of a magnitude that will force Spain to completely revise the bases of its European policy in the medium term.
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The Future of the Stability and Growth Pact
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ARI Nº 120-2002 - 18.12.2002
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Paul Isbell
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Recent revelations that Germany will exceed the Stability and Growth Pact's deficit threshold of 3% of GDP in 2002, and that France is in danger of doing so, have stoked further controversy around the convenience and workability of the pact.
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Europeanism in Eastern Europe
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ARI Nº 119-2002 (Translation from spanish) - 17.12.2001
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Javier Noya
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The European Commission has published the results of two surveys: one measuring the opinion in candidate countries regarding their entry into the EU and the Eurobarometer 57, carried out in member countries. A comparative analysis of these casts doubts on widely held ideas regarding the Europeanism of Eastern Europe.
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The European Union versus the Gibraltar Tax Haven
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ARI Nº 117-2002 - 12.12.2002
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Cristina Izquierdo
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The European Commission has opened two investigations aimed at modifying Gibraltar's current system of company taxation. For Brussels, the enormous tax advantages that Gibraltar-based corporations and companies enjoy are incompatible with the European public assistance regime.
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Spanish Investments in Asia: a Pending Assignment
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ARI Nº 116-2002 - 11.12.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Pablo Bustelo
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Direct investments by Spanish companies in eastern and southern Asia are very scarce (an annual average of barely 430 million euros in 1999-2001, a figure that equals a tiny 1% of total foreign investment). That figure is far below not just the relative weight of that region in global investment, but even below the percentage obtained by our neighbouring countries.
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NATO After Prague: New Missions, New Capabilities
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ARI Nº 112-2002 - 2.12.2002
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William Hopkinson
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NATO has always had both military and political functions. Even if NATO is to die some of them will still need to be conserved. The important thing is to be clear which, and why. The Prague Summit has not helped much with that.
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Spain in the Security Council of the UN
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ARI Nº 108-2002 - 28.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Rafael Dezcallar
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On September 27th, Spain was elected for the fourth time to a non-permanent seat in the Security Council of the United Nations. The event is as important as the circumstances that surrounded it.
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The Wreck of the Prestige: Legal Realities in the Existence and Limitation of Liability
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ARI Nº 107-2002 - 28.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Juan José Álvarez Rubio
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The Prestige, a single-hull oil tanker built 26 years ago, foundered on November 19, spilling thousands of tons of fuel into the sea. Faced with this new environmental disaster suffered by the coasts of Galicia, it is necessary to unravel the main legal and regulatory elements involved, from both a public and private international point of view, in order to assign liabilities and establish the bases for an effective policy that will prevent future wrecks of this kind.
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Morocco-Spain: a relationship difficult to repair
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ARI Nº 106-2002 (Translation from spanish) - 22.11.2002
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Domingo del Pino
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A year after the Moroccan ambassador in Madrid was recalled, relations between Spain and Morocco do not appear to be on track. Hopes placed on the technocratic government of Driss Jettou have vanished quickly.
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Turkey on the Crossroads
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ARI Nº 100-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Fidel Sendagorta
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The victory of the Justice and Development Party in the last Turkish elections and the recent declarations by Valery Giscard d'Estaign, the President of the European Convention, where he stated that the accession of Turkey would mean the end of the EU, have placed two great questions on the table that affect this country in its contemporary history, and which, in turn, are intimately related: the problem of its national identity and the challenge of its link with Europe.
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The Sahara Issue and the Stability of Morocco
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ARI Nº 98-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Ángel Pérez González
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The Spanish position on the future of the Sahara is the correct one. Any change favouring Morocco, as some analysts and politicians of different leanings have suggested by, must be given serious consideration, since this could negatively affect Spain's strategic interests.
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The Gibraltar Referendum
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ARI Nº 95-2002 - 8.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Cristina Izquierdo
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On the 7th of November 2002 the people of Gibraltar were called by their government to a popular consultation to answer the following question: do you approve the principle that the UK and Spain should share sovereignty over Gibraltar? The calling of this referendum leads to two questions which we should try to answer: what is the legal justification for the government of Gibraltar to conduct this referendum? And, secondly, once it is over, what will be the effects of this popular consultation?
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Serbia after the Elections: President Wanted
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ARI Nº 86-2002 - 24.10.2002
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Biljana Prlja
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What's the possible interpretation of the two Serbian elections? What are the implications of the cancellation of the plebiscite for the implementation of the historical agreement signed by Serbia and Montenegro on 14th March this year? How do the Serbian elections affect the entire Balkan region? A positive reading of these elections is that, despite the almost 250 political parties, three political blocks are beginning to emerge. These blocks have been gradually taking shape since the ruling coalition's first crisis, when Milosevic was extradited to The Hague.
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What kind of new CAP is Europe headed for?
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ARI Nº 81-2002 - 22.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Víctor D. Martínez Gómez
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Last July the European Commission presented a proposal for "radical" reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Criticism of the CAP has not been lacking. Among other things, complaints have been levelled against the lack of effectiveness of modulation and the shortcomings of a direct payment system based on aid received in previous years. Despite everything, the Commission appears to have settled on the right type of reform although some aspects could be improved.
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Nice: The Second Irish Referendum
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ARI Nº 80-2002 - 21.10.2002
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Tony Brown
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On 19 October 2002, the Irish electorate dramatically reversed its position on the Nice Treaty and voted for ratification by a majority of 63% to 37%. The key factor in this result was increased turnout. In 2001, less than 35% of the electorate voted but the second poll attracted a turnout of 48.5%. Detailed figures show that almost all of the additional voters supported ratification.
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The Launching of the Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment: Towards a New Euro-Mediterranean Bank?
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ARI Nº 79-2002 - 18.10.2002
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Clara Mira
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A new Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment and Partnership (FEMIP) within the European Investment Bank (EIB) was officially launched in Barcelona. This new initiative is an ambitious step in the reinvigoration of EU relations with the Mediterranean and in its effort to contribute to the prosperity of the region. Its creation is a positive step forward, and it was the best agreement that could be reached given the current climate in the EU, but it may not be the best possible option.
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Germany's EU Policy after the General Elections: Perspectives and Options
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ARI Nº 73-2002 - 17.10.2002
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Udo Diedrichs
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Gerhard Schröder has received a mandate for four more years, but it was not regarded as an overwhelming triumph; it remains to be seen if the next term will see a more coherent approach in foreign and European policy by his government. So far, it seems that domestic policy concerns have been very much at the core of foreign policy choices.
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Reinventing Global Security
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ARI Nº 66-2002 - 11.6.2003
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Eduardo Serra
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It could be seen as an historical joke, but between 11/9 (November the 9th, 1989) and 9/11 (September 11th 2001), the whole world mutated from the old bipolar system to a new post-bipolar environment. The dramatic terrorist attacks over New York and Washington signalled the end of the 90s, making everyone face, with no warning, the dark side of globalisation. Also to accept the reality that we were too vulnerable and a relatively easy target for people like Osama Bin Laden, declared enemies of our way of life. (Conference given by Eduardo Serra, chairman of the Real Instituto Elcano in Brussels, 11 June, 2003)
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Spain increases its Algerian energy dependence
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ARI Nº 66-2002 - 7.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Algeria is Spain's main energy supplier, with a market share much higher than the second supplier and almost twice as large as the third. Although the "secure supply" concept is now in vogue thanks to a recent European guideline project, Spain has been working along these lines for quite some time. In 1998, it prohibited any country from having more than a 60% market share in gas supplies. This limit has always been considered indicative and, judging from the most recent energy plan, it does not seem that the Spanish government is going to be rigid in its interpretation.
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The foreign image abroad as a State policy
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ARI Nº 64-2002 - 8.10.2002 (Translation from Spanish)
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Javier Noya
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Several states have recently launched initiatives to analyse and improve their image abroad. Such is the case of the United States (Global Communications Office), the United Kingdom (Britain Abroad Task Force), Germany (Concept 2000) or Spain (Spain Brand Project). An interpretation based on this analysis and comparison differs from the most commonly held: competition in the global arena. Each policy is aimed at addressing specific image related problems and is organized differently, with civil society having a different weighting in each country.
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The essential Madrid-Algiers axis
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ARI Nº 61-2002 - 8.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Before the present decade, relations between Spain and Algeria were slight and rather cold, a situation clearly reflected in their specific worldviews, the fruit of divergent political experiences. This phase will come to an end in October with the first state visit to Spain to be made by an Algerian President. During the course of the aforesaid visit several important agreements will be signed in order to promote both political and economic relations between the two nations.
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The Shifting Geopolitics of the Euro
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ARI Nº 57-2002 - 23.9.2002
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Paul Isbell
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The birth of the euro raises the possibility of an erosion of dollar supremacy in the mid-term. This could potentially have far-reaching impacts on the transatlantic relationship and on the future of Europe.
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The 2002 Danish European Union Presidency - Wonderful Copenhagen?
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ARI Nº 56-2002 - 20.9.2002
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Lykke Friis
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Although there are other items on the Danish Presidency agenda (such as a reform of fisheries policy), the government has basically put all its money on one horse - enlargement. But the Danish Primer Minister has highlighted three events as possible stumbling blocks on the road to enlargement: EU budget, Cyprus and the referendum in Ireland.
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The European Union with regard to the Doha negotiations and CAP reform
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ARI Nº 50-2002 - 17.9.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Federico Steinberg
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Progress in commercial liberalization on a global scale is necessary to overcome the deceleration of the world's economy. The European Union has the chance to lead the negotiations of the World Trade Organization, initiated in Doha last November, but it will be able to do so only if it can overcome its conflicts with the United States and prove itself capable of advancing on the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.
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Oil: the next Spanish-Moroccan conflict?
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ARI Nº 49-2002 - 13.9.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Morocco's energy shortage may be the cause of future discord between the governments of Rabat and Madrid. The exploration and drilling permits granted on either side of the Alboran Sea could inflict deep wounds in Spanish-Moroccan relations, particularly if oil is found. On the other hand, another potential conflict exists with respect to the possibility of finding oil in the waters of the Sahara. While these matters would not necessarily worsen Spanish-Moroccan relations, there is a risk that they may further thwart an understanding between the two countries.
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The EU Debate in Germany in the Run-Up to the General Elections
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ARI Nº 47-2002 - 9.9.2002
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Udo Diedrichs
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Although the EU as such is not a subject of major controversy in German political life, there is a clear European dimension in the whole electoral debate. Regarding enlargement, both the government and the opposition underline that the German contribution to the EU budget must be limited in the future. Security and Defence seem to be one major point of controversy in the EU debate among the political parties.
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Europe's new choreography : pas de deux and pas de quatre
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ARI Nº 29-2002 - 19.7.2002
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Simon Serfaty
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The French elections held this spring restore a political coherence that had been lacking during seven of the last nine years, when the French political system lived under strained conditions of political cohabitation.
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Perejil/Leila: Lessons for Europe. Why Have All Failed?
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ARI Nº 28-2002 - 19.7.2002
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Álvaro de Vasconçelos
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The most shocking aspect of the current crisis is that in the year or so since the Morrocan ambassador was recalled from Madrid, diplomacy has failed on both sides to find solutions to the dispute that poisons relations between Morroco and Spain.
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The Seville Council: uninspiring yet useful?
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ARI Nº 14-2002 - 4.7.2002
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Charles Powell
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The Seville Council has had a somewhat mixed reception. True to form, The Economist derided it as "a non-event". Other observers, however, claimed genuine progress had been made in the three areas which dominated the Seville agenda, namely immigration, enlargement, and institutional reform.
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The Aznar government and the debate on the future of the European Union
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ARI Nº 13-2002 - 17.6.2002
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Charles Powell
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What are the factors that determine the attitude of the Spanish authorities towards the debate on the future of the European Union? What type of EU would the Aznar government like to see emerging from the European Convention some time in 2003 and from the subsequent Intergovernmental Conference a year later?
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The Dutch conservative revolution: the consequences for Europe
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ARI Nº 10-2002 - 30.5.2002
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Peter van Ham
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Since the Netherlands was widely seen as the bastion of liberal -even libertarian-thinking, it came as quite a shock that this country seemed ready to follow the conservative populist Pim Fortuyn in the parliamentary elections of 15 May. Mr. Fortuyn's concoction of nationalism and conservatism, all served up with remarkable flair and audacity, proved attractive to a significant section of the Dutch electorate (17.1%).
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