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International Economy & Trade - ARI |
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The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Political Response (ARI)
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ARI 126/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/12/2008
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Federico Steinberg
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The world financial crisis, the result of financial liberalisation and an excess of global liquidity, has pushed the world to the verge of recession. The crisis will also have major geopolitical ramifications.
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The Energy Situation in Bolivia (ARI)
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ARI 118/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/11/2008
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Hugo del Granado Cosio
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The nationalisation of the hydrocarbon industry in Bolivia marks the
culmination of a long, emotional battle by the ruling party to assert
control over the country’s natural resources. The signing of new
contracts with oil companies displayed the pragmatism and flexibility
with which it can negotiate nationalisation measures, and the degree of
influence that Hugo Chávez has come to exert over the Bolivian
government.
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The Credit Crisis: Causes, Public Responses and Beyond (ARI)
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ARI 127/2008 - 17/10/2008
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Henrik Lumholdt
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This ARI discusses the main causes of the credit crisis, the short-term
responses from the authorities, and some of the regulatory issues
arising from it. It argues that lessons from previous crises may have
to be re-learned.
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The Subprime Crisis and the Lender of Last Resort (ARI)
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ARI 106/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/10/2008
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Santiago Fernández de Lis
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This ARI
reviews the traditional doctrine regarding the role of central banks
as lenders of last resort, in view of the financial crisis which
began in the summer of 2007.
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Trade and the US Presidential Election (ARI)
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ARI 113/2008 - 24/9/2008
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Daniel Griswold
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The US Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain have
embraced sharply different positions on the important issue of
international trade.
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The Riddle of Energy Security (ARI)
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ARI 67/2008 - 4/7/2008
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Paul Isbell
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The issue of energy security has traditionally been confused and
confusing terrain. The concept itself is so multi-faceted and complex
that intuitive approaches typically turn out to be incomplete, if not
simply wrong-headed. A counterintuitive reading on energy issues is
more often than not the most accurate, or at least the most revealing.
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The ALBA Bloc: An Alternative Project for Latin America? (ARI)
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ARI 17/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/3/2008
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Josette Altmann
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The Venezuelan/Cuban proposal for the so–called ALBA (the Spanish
acronym for Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas), which also
includes Bolivia, Nicaragua and Dominica, is an alternative project
designed to promote integration in Latin America and the Caribbean.
This ARI looks at the initiative’s origin, evolution and concrete
proposals.
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China and India: Energy and Climate Change (ARI)
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ARI 136/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/1/2008
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Pablo Bustelo
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The annual report that the International Energy Agency published in November and especially some of the arguments put forth by certain countries at the recent summit in Bali on climate change have sought with varying degrees of directness to criticise Asia’s two great emerging economies.
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Revisiting Energy Security (ARI)
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ARI 123/2007 - 23/11/2007
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Paul Isbell
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This article revisits the multifaceted issue of energy security and analyses its various permutations, degrees of risk and political and economic implications in the short, medium and long run.
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The Future of World Trade: Doha or Regionalism and Bilateralism? (ARI)
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ARI 95/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/10/2007
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Federico Steinberg
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This ARI analyses the
prospects for world trade following the collapse of the Doha Round of talks
within the World Trade Organisation (WTO), paying special attention to the
expansion of bilateral and regional trade agreements.
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China’s Economic Boom and its International Impact (ARI)
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ARI 100/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 2/10/2007
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Pablo Bustelo
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The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of China’s
economic boom and examine some of the main advantages and problems it will
face over the mid and long terms.
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China and Climate Change: Responsible Action? (ARI)
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ARI 68/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 31/7/2007
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Pablo Bustelo
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In early June China unveiled its National Plan for Climate Change, a document which has generated some controversy and which has led certain sectors of opinion to question whether or not Beijing’s position in the fight against global warming is as responsible as it should be.
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Energy in Bolivia (ARI)
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ARI 13/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/2/2007
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Hugo del Granado
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The nationalisation of hydrocarbons in Bolivia
marked the end of a long struggle involving protests and political slogans by
the ruling party in relation to the country’s natural resources. The signing of
the new Operating Contracts with oil companies has made evident the pragmatism
and flexibility with which it can negotiate nationalisation measures, as well
as the degree of influence of Hugo Chávez on
the Bolivian government.
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Gas in Bolivia: Conflicts and Contracts (ARI)
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ARI 130/2006 - 27/12/2006
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Norman Gall
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The ‘nationalisation’
agreement with the petroleum companies operating in Bolivia provides a badly
needed political victory for President Evo
Morales, whose government has been weakened by local and ideological disputes
that have tested its credibility. Now the focus will be on the future
investments needed to reverse expected production declines and meet expanding
domestic and export demand.
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IMF Quota Reform: The Singapore Agreements (ARI)
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ARI 111/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/12/2006
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Santiago Fernández de Lis
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This document analyses the changes in the quotas of certain countries as agreed at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Singapore in September 2006, as well as the announced changes in their method of calculation within two years
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Iran’s nuclear gamble
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ARI 89/2006 - 7.8.2006
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Nicola Pedde
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The critical dynamics of Iran’s international relations might potentially give way to a multi-level short-term escalation
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Gas: A Thorny Issue in Latin America (ARI)*
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ARI 48/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4.5.2006
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Paul Isbell
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Following the energy crises in Brazil and Argentina earlier in the decade, and currently in the midst of a world-wide energy crisis, the major energy consumers in the southern extreme of the hemisphere have been exploring different options to ensure their future gas supplies, along with possible regional energy integration plans. All the formulae for adapting regional supply to demand raise political and economic problems difficult to resolve
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Energy Dependency and Spanish Interests
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ARI 32/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 21.3.2006
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Paul Isbell
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Spain is highly dependent on imported hydrocarbons, particularly the most problematic types –oil and gas–. As a result, the Spanish economy is quite vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil and gas prices. Geographically, Spain is particularly dependent on countries that are not entirely reliable either in terms of supply or politics and it appears likely that the energy panorama will become even more complicated in the medium and long term. Therefore, Spain must take up the challenge and make it a national priority to diversify its energy mix and reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons
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The Nuclear Mirage and the World Energy Situation (I)
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ARI 16/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 2/3/2006
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Marcel Coderch Collell
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In light of the increasing debate on global energy issues, it is important to quantify and analyse the role of nuclear power, so as not to fall back on self-complacent mirages and to avoid repeating past errors. Nuclear reactivation is often proposed in response to rising oil prices and climate change. However, its limitations –both qualitative and quantitative– are frequently overlooked, and its costs and disadvantages compared to other options are not taken into consideration.
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The Missing Link? Zapatero, Blair and the Future of Europe
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ARI 102/2005 - 22.7.2005
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David Mathieson
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José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero will meet Tony Blair in London next week to discuss the future of the European Union (EU) and ways in which they can improve the bi-lateral relationship between London and Madrid
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Why the Euro is Essential to the Future of Europe: Part I
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ARI 75/2005 - 9.6.2005
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Paul Isbell
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A sense of haplessness, together with a short-sighted desire to find a quick fix for economic problems, has prompted a growing number of European policy makers and commentators to focus their fear and confusion on a new target: the euro
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Spanish-US Economic Relations: How Important are the Aznar-Zapatero Gyrations?
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ARI Nº 197/2004 - 22.12.2004
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Paul Isbell
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While the Spanish-US economic relationship arguably remains relatively underdeveloped, our tentative conclusion is that the impact on the bilateral economic relationship of the Aznar-Zapatero gyrations in Spain’s political relationship with the US has proved relatively insignificant and is likely to remain marginal in the future
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Leasing of public farmland in Morocco
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ARI Nº 175/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.11.2004
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Iñigo Moré
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The area offered for tender is the equivalent of 100,000 football pitches and represents an interesting business opportunity. It is also an opportunity to strengthen Moroccan-European relations in a sector that is the backbone of the Moroccan economy and an area of great sensitivity for the European Union.
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Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance?
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ARI Nº 161/2004 - 26.10.2004
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Paul Isbell
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Before the US presidential debates, it was widely agreed that while a majority of Americans still placed more faith in George Bush in matters concerning national security, most believed that John Kerry would deal with economic issues more effectively and fairly than has (or would) President Bush. Furthermore, while a growing consensus of analysts now claim –almost to the point of cliché– that the foreign policy stances of the two candidates are not radically different from each other their positions on economic matters do appear to be quite distinct and materially different
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European Growth: Myth, Reality and Necessity (Part II)
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ARI Nº 118/2004 - 5.7.2004
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Paul Isbell
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Europe has lower per capita incomes than the US basically because it has traded off its striking productivity gains over the last 30 years for more leisure, rather than for more income. However, such a trade-off is not likely to remain feasible in the future, nor would it be wise for Europe to attempt to continue making it, if the EU wishes to maintain its economic model and make a positive difference in the world
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European Growth: Myth, Reality and Necessity (Part I)
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ARI Nº 117/2004 - 5.7.2004
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Paul Isbell
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While the perception that the US economy has left Europe far behind is exaggerated and distorted, it is true that Europe has not closed the per capita income gap with the US over the last three decades
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The Brazilian economy in Lula’s first year (Part II): the search for stability and the challenge of international insertion
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ARI Nº28/2004 - 17.3.2004
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Alfredo Arahuetes García
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In the first part of this piece of research we analysed the performance of the Brazilian economy in 2003 and the key role assigned to fiscal policy in winning back the confidence of the financial markets and stabilising prices. In Part II we look at the state of the economy from an international standpoint, the difficulties encountered in reducing international vulnerability and Brazil’s complex insertion in the process of international globalisation in order to determine the possibilities of strengthening the balance of payments, Brazil’s ability to attract foreign investment and ways of improving the country’s liquidity and solvency ratios
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The difficult rapprochement between Spain and Equatorial Guinea
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ARI Nº 18/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 26.2.2004
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Carlos Ruiz Miguel
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Various attempts have been made to improve the strained nature of the relationship between Spain and Equatorial Guinea. The strange incident involving the departure and sudden return of the naval vessels Patiño and Canarias demonstrates the difficulty of rebuilding relations between the two countries even at times when their interests appear to converge
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Investment delocalization: challenges and opportunities
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ARI Nº 25/2004 - 25.2.2004
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Pelayo Castro Zuzuárregui, Federico Steinberg
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The diversion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Spain to the new EU members through the growing practice of ‘delocalizing’ production units calls for new and innovative public policies to enable Spain to attract foreign investment in higher value-added sectors.
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Oil-related Risks Increase on the Southern Border
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ARI Nº 140/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 1.12.2003
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Iñigo Moré
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Two years ago there were no companies exploring for oil in Spanish waters bordering on, or near, Moroccan waters. Today, five oil companies are operating along the Spanish/Moroccan maritime border in three different areas: the Atlantic side of Gibraltar, the Alboran Sea and the coast of the Canary Islands. In two cases, the same company holds exploration rights on both sides of the maritime limit. This unusual activity has awakened the interest of the Algerian government, which has called for tenders for the exploration of what it considers its territorial waters in East Alboran, directly on the north-south line with La Manga del Mar Menor. This includes an area that has traditionally been considered to belong to Spain.
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World Atlas of International Bank Finance
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ARI Nº 131/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 3.11.2003
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Iñigo Moré
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What do Iraq, Iran and Cuba have in common? The first thing that comes to mind is their dislike of the United States. But they share something else: French banks are their foremost suppliers of funds. At least they lead the list of 27 nations which report their international operations to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The operations of reporting banks comprise 95% of international banking activity
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Europe’s Difficult Moment, Spain’s Tough Position
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ARI Nº 115/2003 - 30.9.2003
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Paul Isbell
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Economic stagnation in Europe has intensified the controversial nature of a number of EU issues, including Euro zone economic policy management and the new Constitutional Treaty, while the Spanish position on these issues has become increasingly problematic
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Driving on the Right or on the Left? The Swedish Euro Referendum from a European Perspective
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ARI Nº 101/2003 - 22.8.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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The Swedish referendum on the euro is set for September 14, 2003. This analysis scrutinizes the Swedish debate to date, and make a critical assessment of the tendency to exaggerate the economic implications of the election and thereby downplaying the significance of the euro for the common economic project of which Sweden already is a full member
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Prospects for the Doha Trade Round
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ARI Nº 100/2003 - 30.7.2003
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Ivan Briscoe
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The current round of trade negotiations that began in Doha in 2001 is struggling to find a way to balance the demands of the developing world with the doubts of Europe and the United States
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Cuba: Origins and Prospects of the Extreme Tension.
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ARI Nº 65/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 29.4.2003
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Joaquín Roy
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The relationship between Cuba and the United States has undergone renewed tension. The reason for this is a complex mixture of the hijacking of Cuban aeroplanes and boats against the background of diplomatic clashes between the United States and Cuba. This atmosphere coincided in time with the war in Iraq, the final consequences of which are uncertain in their multiple dimensions. The imprisonment and trials of the dissidents resulted in the summary execution of some of the hijackers, which has given rise to widespread alarm and protest on a world scale
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Economic Aspects of the War in Iraq
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ARI Nº 46/2003 - 12.3.2003
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Paul Isbell
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As the drift towards military action against Iraq continues, the short-term future of the world economy remains in the balance, suspended amid the debilitating hangover effects of the 1990s boom, the deepening rifts between allies in multilateral fora and the unsettling uncertainties of war
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The new economic vitality of the Philippines: an opportunity for Spain?
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ARI Nº 36/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 26.2.2003
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Pablo Bustelo
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The relatively high growth rate of the Philippines in 2002, although important, is not yet safely consolidated. The country depends heavily on oil imports, exports to the US market, remittances from emigrants and tourism, all of which are highly sensitive to the various economic effects that could result from a possible armed conflict with Iraq
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Prospects for Spain–Latin America–Asia-Pacific Triangulation
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ARI Nº 123-2002 - 20.12.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Pablo Bustelo
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Triangulation between Spain, Latin America and Asia-Pacific is one of the initiatives of the Spanish government’s Asia-Pacific Framework Plan 2000-2002. It attempts to take advantage of solid Latin American relations and growing trans-Pacific links to defend Spain’s Asia-Pacific strategic interests.
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The Urgent and Necessary Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy
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ARI Nº 122-2002 - 19.12.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Gonzalo Fanjul Suárez
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Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is up for reform, forced on it by the enlargement of the European Union eastwards, negotiations with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the criticism it received internally for its negative social and environmental impact.
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The Future of the Stability and Growth Pact
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ARI Nº 120-2002 - 18.12.2002
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Paul Isbell
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Recent revelations that Germany will exceed the Stability and Growth Pact's deficit threshold of 3% of GDP in 2002, and that France is in danger of doing so, have stoked further controversy around the convenience and workability of the pact.
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The European Union versus the Gibraltar Tax Haven
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ARI Nº 117-2002 - 12.12.2002
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Cristina Izquierdo
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The European Commission has opened two investigations aimed at modifying Gibraltar's current system of company taxation. For Brussels, the enormous tax advantages that Gibraltar-based corporations and companies enjoy are incompatible with the European public assistance regime.
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Spanish Investments in Asia: a Pending Assignment
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ARI Nº 116-2002 - 11.12.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Pablo Bustelo
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Direct investments by Spanish companies in eastern and southern Asia are very scarce (an annual average of barely 430 million euros in 1999-2001, a figure that equals a tiny 1% of total foreign investment). That figure is far below not just the relative weight of that region in global investment, but even below the percentage obtained by our neighbouring countries.
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Morocco-Spain: a relationship difficult to repair
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ARI Nº 106-2002 (Translation from spanish) - 22.11.2002
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Domingo del Pino
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A year after the Moroccan ambassador in Madrid was recalled, relations between Spain and Morocco do not appear to be on track. Hopes placed on the technocratic government of Driss Jettou have vanished quickly.
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What kind of new CAP is Europe headed for?
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ARI Nº 81-2002 - 22.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Víctor D. Martínez Gómez
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Last July the European Commission presented a proposal for "radical" reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Criticism of the CAP has not been lacking. Among other things, complaints have been levelled against the lack of effectiveness of modulation and the shortcomings of a direct payment system based on aid received in previous years. Despite everything, the Commission appears to have settled on the right type of reform although some aspects could be improved.
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The Launching of the Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment: Towards a New Euro-Mediterranean Bank?
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ARI Nº 79-2002 - 18.10.2002
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Clara Mira
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A new Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment and Partnership (FEMIP) within the European Investment Bank (EIB) was officially launched in Barcelona. This new initiative is an ambitious step in the reinvigoration of EU relations with the Mediterranean and in its effort to contribute to the prosperity of the region. Its creation is a positive step forward, and it was the best agreement that could be reached given the current climate in the EU, but it may not be the best possible option.
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The Houston Summit: Implications for the Geopolitics of Oil
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ARI Nº 71-2002 - 16.10.2002
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Paul Isbell
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The US-Russia Commercial Energy Summit marked yet another milestone in the transition from the Cold War to a new strategic order. Ever since the Gulf War, when the Soviet Union stood aside while the US organized its international coalition to displace Iraqi forces from Kuwait, US-Russia relations have continued to undergo profound historic changes. It has been the issue of energy supplies which has brought the two ex-arch enemies from the Cold War era increasingly closer together.
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Reinventing Global Security
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ARI Nº 66-2002 - 11.6.2003
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Eduardo Serra
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It could be seen as an historical joke, but between 11/9 (November the 9th, 1989) and 9/11 (September 11th 2001), the whole world mutated from the old bipolar system to a new post-bipolar environment. The dramatic terrorist attacks over New York and Washington signalled the end of the 90s, making everyone face, with no warning, the dark side of globalisation. Also to accept the reality that we were too vulnerable and a relatively easy target for people like Osama Bin Laden, declared enemies of our way of life. (Conference given by Eduardo Serra, chairman of the Real Instituto Elcano in Brussels, 11 June, 2003)
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A Businessman at the Head of the Moroccan Government
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ARI Nº 69-2002 - 11.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Domingo del Pino
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Ten years after the elections that surprised the Algerian establishment with an Islamist victory, the authorities in Morocco have received a similar shock with the important electoral advance achieved by their country's Islamists. Driss Jettou's appointment as Prime Minister is the Moroccan political system's soft response to an Islamism that is, for the moment, also soft.
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Spain increases its Algerian energy dependence
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ARI Nº 66-2002 - 7.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Algeria is Spain's main energy supplier, with a market share much higher than the second supplier and almost twice as large as the third. Although the "secure supply" concept is now in vogue thanks to a recent European guideline project, Spain has been working along these lines for quite some time. In 1998, it prohibited any country from having more than a 60% market share in gas supplies. This limit has always been considered indicative and, judging from the most recent energy plan, it does not seem that the Spanish government is going to be rigid in its interpretation.
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The essential Madrid-Algiers axis
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ARI Nº 61-2002 - 8.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Before the present decade, relations between Spain and Algeria were slight and rather cold, a situation clearly reflected in their specific worldviews, the fruit of divergent political experiences. This phase will come to an end in October with the first state visit to Spain to be made by an Algerian President. During the course of the aforesaid visit several important agreements will be signed in order to promote both political and economic relations between the two nations.
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The Shifting Geopolitics of the Euro
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ARI Nº 57-2002 - 23.9.2002
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Paul Isbell
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The birth of the euro raises the possibility of an erosion of dollar supremacy in the mid-term. This could potentially have far-reaching impacts on the transatlantic relationship and on the future of Europe.
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Oil, geopolitics in the Middle East and OPEC
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ARI Nº 54-2002 - 9.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Alejandro Vigil García
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The Middle East and OPEC are and will continue to be, the key to guaranteeing a sufficient supply of energy at a reasonable price. For this reason, achieving stability in the region is an increasingly important goal for the good health of the world economy and global security.
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The European Union with regard to the Doha negotiations and CAP reform
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ARI Nº 50-2002 - 17.9.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Federico Steinberg
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Progress in commercial liberalization on a global scale is necessary to overcome the deceleration of the world's economy. The European Union has the chance to lead the negotiations of the World Trade Organization, initiated in Doha last November, but it will be able to do so only if it can overcome its conflicts with the United States and prove itself capable of advancing on the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.
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North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Are the Security Council’s Sanctions Enough? (ARI)
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ARI 97/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/12/2006
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Pablo Bustelo
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This analysis assesses whether the sanctions against North Korea approved recently by the United Nations Security Council are sufficient or not to substantially modify Pyongyang’s conduct and, ultimately, to force Kim Jong Il’s regime to relinquish the nuclear option. The analysis argues that they may well be insufficient, and that further measures are necessary, although in no case should these include military action
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Oil: the next Spanish-Moroccan conflict?
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ARI Nº 49-2002 - 13.9.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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Morocco's energy shortage may be the cause of future discord between the governments of Rabat and Madrid. The exploration and drilling permits granted on either side of the Alboran Sea could inflict deep wounds in Spanish-Moroccan relations, particularly if oil is found. On the other hand, another potential conflict exists with respect to the possibility of finding oil in the waters of the Sahara. While these matters would not necessarily worsen Spanish-Moroccan relations, there is a risk that they may further thwart an understanding between the two countries.
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Can Brazil Resist?
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ARI Nº 30-2002 - 22.7.2002
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Paul Isbell
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Once again the international investment community is questioning the sustainability of Brazil's debt and the stability of its economy. The prospect of a change in economic policy as a result of the October elections and the habit of making simplified comparisons with Argentina have been the two principal sources of these fears.
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