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A New Composite Global Terrorism Threat to Western Societies from Pakistan? Making Sense of the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona (WP) WP 28/2010 - 2/8/2010 Fernando Reinares The actors behind the past twarthed attacks in the Spanish city denoted an intriguing combination which, indicative of the operational limitations faced by Al Qaeda and early manifestation of the Punjabi Taliban network, reflected an evolving terrorism threat to the West related with Pakistan.
Al-Qaeda and Afghanistan in Strategic Context: Counterinsurgency versus Counterterrorism (WP) WP 15/2010 - 17/5/2010 Sebastian L. v. Gorka This paper discusses how the US failed to adequately identify the nature of the conflict it was embarking upon in response to the 9/11 attacks, our flawed understanding of the enemy and the fact that today we are just beginning to appreciate the central role of religious ideology in this war. Should we continue to misunderstand these three realities of the post-9/11 world, success in Afghanistan and Pakistan will not be achievable.
Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Vulnerability and Threat of Terrorism (WP) WP 14/2010 - 16/4/2010 Anneli Botha This working paper will provide an overview of the threats of terrorism associated with hosting a prominent sport event, while placing potential threats in context in South Africa; and an overview of preparations for the FIFA World Cup. Its aim is not to discourage visitors to come to South Africa, but rather to place the potential threat of terrorism in context.
Radicalisation in the Diaspora: Why Muslims in the West Attack Their Host Countries (WP) WP 9/2010 - 15/3/2010 Peter K. Waldmann While we now have a solid database on the processes of radicalisation of Muslims in the West, what we still lack is a theoretical framework that links the different pieces of empirical knowledge together. This working paper suggests that the diaspora concept could provide such a framework.
Spain and the G-20: A Strategic Proposal for Enhancing its Role in Global Governance 8/4/2009 Elcano Royal Institute This paper explores the role Spain can and should play in the institutions engaged in global governance in the current context of financial crisis and reconfiguration of international power centres. After briefly analysing Spain’s relative position in the world –on the basis of economic and other criteria– the study suggests the path it should follow to boost its influence in the world. The paper points out Spain’s comparative advantages, the areas where it could contribute most, and the shortcomings that make it difficult to translate Spain’s economic weight into greater political influence at the global level.
Iran and its Proxy Hezbollah: Strategic Penetration in Latin America (WP) WP 18/2009 - 8/4/2009 Ely Karmon Since his inauguration in 2005, Iran’s foreign policy focus has shifted from Africa to Latin America in order to, as Ahmadinejad puts it, ‘counter lasso’ the US.
Challenges in Strengthening the International Regime to Combat the Financing of Terrorism (WP) WP 9/2009 - 17/2/2009 Concepción Verdugo-Yepes This paper’s aim is to emphasise the challenges faced by international cooperation in combating the financing of terrorism. It reviews the existing weaknesses and failures of each group of stakeholders participating in the CFT strategy. Finally, the paper concludes by pointing out which challenges must be confronted and which actions should be taken for enhancing international cooperation.
After the Madrid Bombings: Internal Security Reforms and the Prevention of Global Terrorism in Spain (WP) WP 40/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/10/2008 Fernando Reinares At the time of the Madrid bombings on 11 March 2004, Spain was equipped with well-developed internal security structures that were highly efficient in the fight against terrorism. However, they were not as well adapted to dealing with the challenges of terrorism related to al-Qaeda.
The Mujahedin in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Case Study in the Evolution of Global Jihad (WP) WP 20/2008 - 9/5/2008 Michael Taarnby The current volume of publications dealing with Islamist militancy and terrorism defies belief in terms of its contents. This paper is a modest attempt to direct more attention and interest towards the much overlooked sub-field of historical research within Jihadi studies.
Afghanistan and Lebanon: Assessment of the Jihadist Risk to Spain (WP) WP 8/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/3/2008 Miguel Luparelli Mathieu, José Antonio Mathés and Andrés Montero Gómez This analysis is based on a game theory model which assumes the premise that the behaviour of Jihadist groups (taken generally, and al-Qaeda in particular) and of States is rational and responds to strategic choices. It begins with an introduction to the context which situates Spain and global Jihadist groups on opposing sides of the game board of strategic interests. There follows an analysis of each of the scenarios and their implications in the strategies of Jihadist organisations, as well as their influence on Spanish foreign policy and international security policy decisions.
Fatah al-Islam: Anthropological Perspectives on Jihadi Culture (WP) WP 6/2008 - 12/2/2008 Michael Taarnby and Lars Hallundbaek This paper argues that the Jihadi culture of Fatah al-Islam is an appropriated and non-traditional culture which must be defended at all costs by its followers precisely because it is an artificial entity.
Will America’s New Counterinsurgency Doctrine Defeat al-Qaeda? (WP) WP 1/2008 - 10/1/2008 Sebestyén L. v. Gorka This paper discusses the concept of global insurgency and deals with the existing canon of COIN theory and case studies. It also looks at the connection between the practice of counterinsurgency and the broader world of politics and war–fighting. The document close with a discussion as to exactly how much the ‘Long War’ is in fact understandable as a form of COIN and whether al–Qaeda is truly an insurgent organisation.
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