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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : Latin America
Correa and Assange: A Peculiar Relationship 10/12/2012 Carlota García Encina and Carlos Malamud What are the key determinants of Ecuadorian President Correa’s ongoing support for WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange?
Ecuador’s Energy Policy Mix: Development, Conservation and Nationalism with Chinese Loans (ARI) ARI 26/2012 - 17/4/2012 Gonzalo Escribano Ecuador’s energy policy faces a complex variety of political and economic objectives that are difficult to reconcile in a consistent manner.
The Economic Crisis and the Emerging Powers: Towards a New International Order? 20/2/2012 Robin Niblett The real challenges to the existing international order will come not from the established or emerging powers, but from global forces that are beyond their control and also from those non-state entities and groups which seek to undermine the process of globalisation that links all states and societies ever closer together.
Aid to Haiti: Reconstruction Amidst Political Uncertainty (ARI) ARI 61/2011 - 29/3/2011 Marc J. Cohen and Amélie Gauthier Following the 20 March 2011 elections, Haiti faces a potential political stalemate whilst confronting the massive reconstruction needs created by last year’s earthquake.
Latin America: Economic and Political Outlook for 2011 (ARI) ARI 42/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/3/2011 Carlos Malamud and Federico Steinberg Latin America's economic and political outlook for 2011 is favourable. Growth and political stability appear to be guaranteed, although there are some risks on the horizon.
China-Spain-Latin America Triangulation in a Chinese Perspective (ARI) ARI 4/2011 - 14/1/2011 Jiang Shixue This paper looks at the prospects for triangulation between China, Spain and Latin America in the wake of the Sinopec-Repsol deal in Brazil.
Brazilian Cooperation: a model under construction for an emerging power (ARI) ARI 143/2010 (Translated from Spanish) Bruno Ayllón Pino The media, analysts and markets have focused a great deal of attention on the consolidation of Brazil as an emerging power, mainly in the economic and global governance spheres. However, there is little information and few studies on cooperation as an instrument of Brazilian foreign policy or on Brazil’s role in the new architecture of aid, despite its increasing presence in Africa and its leading role in debates on international development.
The Cuban Monetary and Financial Jigsaw Puzzle (ARI) ARI 148/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2010 Pavel Vidal Alejandro The 2008-09 balance of payments crisis and a succession of errors in economic policies have resulted in new monetary and financial complications in the Cuban economy, to be added to the costs and distortions of currency duality.
The End of Deference: Iran, Brazil and Turkey and the Nuclear Fuel Swap (ARI) ARI 96/2010 - 11/6/2010 Ian Anthony On 17 May 2010 Brazil, Iran and Turkey signed a tri-partite Joint Declaration asserting that a nuclear fuel exchange could lead to wider cooperation to exploit nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
Tourism Development and Regional Integration in Central America (ARI) ARI 86/2010 - 20/5/2010 Lucy Ferguson What is the relationship between tourism and regional integration in Central America?
Too Big a World? Lula, Brazil and the Middle East (ARI) ARI 62/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/5/2010 Günther Maihold The new activism of the Brazilian government and its President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in the Middle East has opened up a new front for Brazil’s foreign policy, with significant risks to the chances of its experienced leader engineering a successful outcome.
Haiti: the US and Military Aid in Times of Natural Disaster (ARI) ARI 57/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 13/5/2010 Carlota García Encina This paper analyses the US military deployment in Haiti after the earthquake of 12 January, which caused catastrophic damage in the poorest country in the Americas.
Haiti: Geopolitical Turmoil in the Wake of the Earthquake (ARI) ARI 58/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 27/4/2010 Amélie Gauthier What are the international and domestic implications of the Haiti earthquake?
The Impact of the International Financial Crisis on Brazil (ARI) ARI 38/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/4/2010 José Roberto Mendonça de Barros This ARI examines the impact of the global financial crisis on the Brazilian economy and the ways in which the country has managed to react positively to the ensuing challenges, without overlooking the new challenges that it will have to face in the future.
Sparks of War? Military Cooperation between Colombia and the US from a Strategic Perspective (ARI) ARI 16/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 9/4/2010 Vicente Torrijos R. The military cooperation agreement signed between Colombia and the US in November 2009 unleashed a flurry of debate in the continent regarding the scope of the fight against narcoterrorism and the presence of US forces in Latin America.
Hugo Chávez’s Third Devaluation (ARI) ARI 24/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/3/2010 Ronald Balza Guanipa The devaluation is the consequence of accelerated internal public spending funded through oil revenues. Although spending won Hugo Chávez votes, a significant number of voters may now be feeling the negative effects of devaluation.
The Defeat of the Concertación Coalition and the Alternation of Power in Chile (ARI) ARI23/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/3/2010 Carlos Huneeus The second round of the Chilean elections on 17 January 2010 handed victory to the opposition, putting an end to a run of four governments led by the centre-left Concertación por la Democracia coalition, in power since the end of the military regime of General Augusto Pinochet (1973-90). This is hugely significant because it signals the return of the right wing to the La Moneda presidential palace after no less than 52 years.
The US in Brazil’s Foreign Policy (ARI) ARI 31/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/3/2010 Carlos Malamud and Carola García-Calvo Brazil has opted for its own foreign policy in Latin America and clashed at times with the new US Administration. What is the state of relations between Brazil and the US? Can Brazil become the leader of South America and take a place on the world stage?
Honduras: Elections as a Way out of Political Deadlock (ARI) ARI 11/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/2/2010 Óscar Álvarez Araya The general election in Honduras on 29 November 2009 was a free and transparent process, whose implications for the Americas as a whole are also analysed in this ARI.
The Costa Rican Elections: The Fight for Continuity (ARI) ARI 3/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/2/2010 Constantino Urcuyo President Oscar Arias’ party is seeking to stay in power, despite being weakened by the intensive and combative approach of its rivals.
General Elections in Bolivia, December 2009 (ARI) ARI 154/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 18/12/2009 Andrés Santana Leitner The Bolivian general elections were held in December 2009 in very special circumstances and conditions: they were the first elections under Bolivia’s New Political Constitution, the first (since the reinstatement of democracy) in which a President was eligible for reelection, the first in which biometric voter registration was implemented and the first in which it was possible to vote from outside the country.
The Amazonian Conflict: Biodiversity, Native Communities and Sustainable Development (ARI) ARI 151/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2009 Luis E. González Manrique The resignation of the Peruvian Prime Minister, Yehude Simon, and the congressional repeal of two of the main legislative decrees that opened extensive Amazonian zones to commercial exploitation have provided a merely temporary relief to the reigning tension. The situation is similar, to varying degrees, in the other South-American countries that share the Amazon basin.
The ‘New’ Panama Canal: Present and Future (ARI) ARI 121/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2009 María Gemma Prieto A Spanish company at the head of an international consortium has won the major part of the contract for the expansion of the Panama Canal. This analysis sums up the history, the present and the future plan of an oceanic corridor of prime importance in world politics and the world economy.
Evo Morales and Hugo Chávez visit Spain (ARI) ARI 146/2009 (Translated from Spanish) Carlos Malamud The visits to Spain of Presidents Evo Morales of Bolivia and Hugo Chávez of Venezuela have triggered a major domestic controversy as well as intense external debate, as Spain’s government is accused of seeking to move closer to certain populist leaders.
The US and Latin America: A New Phase in a Complicated Relationship (ARI) ARI 97/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/7/2009 Carlos Malamud The Fifth Summit of the Americas has served to put relations between Latin America and the US back on the agenda.
The Fifth Summit of the Americas: Relations with the US are Played Out in Cuba (ARI) ARI 74/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/5/2009 Carlos Malamud and Carola García-Calvo The Fifth Summit of the Americas allowed the US to resume dialogue with Latin America. During the meeting, Washington sought to establish a relationship ‘among equals’, in line with Barack Obama’s idea of moving from a policy of acting ‘for’ Latin America to one of acting ‘with’ it.
Ecuador’s Foreign Policy: Presidential Interests and Ideology (ARI) ARI 61/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 19/05/2009 Carlos Malamud & Carola García-Calvo Ecuador’s foreign policy, in the context of the Rafael Correa’s ‘government of the Citizens’ Revolution’, is complemented by the ‘Patria, altiva, digna y soberana’ project. Accordingly, a set of positions and alliances has been adopted. Some of these are very controversial and have a clear ideological bias, which has compromised the country’s international image.
Second-time Lucky: Chávez on his Way to 2021? (ARI) ARI 46/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/4/2009 Manuel Hidalgo The approval of plans to lift the ban on the indefinite re-election of elected officials paves the way for Chávez to run for office in 2012 and gives him further scope to continue implementing his vague, contradictory and divisive socialist project.
Energy for the Western Hemisphere: Revisiting Latin America’s Energy Scene before the 5th Summit of the Americas (ARI) ARI 10/2009 - 14/1/2009 Paul Isbell Revisiting the energy scenario in Latin America, this paper analyses the region’s various energy challenges and evaluates the need and potential for a region-wide energy strategy.
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