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Security & Defense - ARI |
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Geopolitics 2.0 (ARI)
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ARI 144/2009 - 14/10/2009
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Matthew Fraser
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An entirely new form of virtual weaponry is transforming the dynamics of geopolitics.
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The Coming NATO Nuclear Debate (ARI)
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ARI 117/2008 - 26/9/2008
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Bruno Tertrais
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This paper analyses NATO’s current nuclear position, the arguments for and against withdrawal, and the need for a calm process of behind-the-doors consultations on this issue, with an open mind and with no taboos. Otherwise, NATO could generate a new controversy between Member States and put at risk the credibility of its nuclear deterrence.
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After NATO’s Bucharest Summit (ARI)
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ARI 60/2008 - 10/6/2008
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Fernando del Pozo
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In general terms NATO’s Bucharest Summit has been a success. The outcome was less satisfactory regarding the design of a new Strategic Concept, but the hope is that the Declaration on Alliance Security should lead to progress being made for the next Summit, to be held in the spring of 2009 in Strasbourg and Kehl.
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Chad: Democratisation Challenges and Limits of International Intervention (ARI)
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ARI 59/2008 - 6/6/2008
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Paul-Simon Handy
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International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad,
must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by
helping Chadian political actors to reform the country’s social
contract instead of focusing on preserving stability and, thus,
becoming part of the problem and not of the solution.
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Risks Facing the Spanish Contingent in Afghanistan (ARI)
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ARI 128/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/1/2008
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Carlos Echeverría Jesús
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A detailed analysis of the nature of the current and potential threat that the Spanish contingent will have to face in the immediate future is required in the light of increased risks in Spain’s deployment zone in Afghanistan in recent months, the worsening of the conflict in a large part of the country and the intensification of terrorist activity in neighbouring Pakistan.
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America’s ABM Shield in Europe and Russia’s Response (ARI)
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ARI 101/2007 - 21/9/2007
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Ivan Konovalov
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Washington’s decision to deploy the third phase of its global anti-missile defence system in two Eastern European countries is being regarded in Moscow as the most serious external threat to Russia’s security system since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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Modernising National Defence: The Chilean Case (ARI)
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ARI 11/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/2/2007
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Marina Malamud
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Chile’s process of State
reform has made progress in many spheres of the public administration; however,
the modernisation of the Ministry of Defence is still pending, partly due to a heated
internal political debate.
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North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Are the Security Council’s Sanctions Enough? (ARI)
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ARI 109/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/12/2006
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Pablo Bustelo
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This analysis assesses whether the sanctions against North Korea approved recently by the United Nations Security Council are sufficient or not to substantially modify Pyongyang’s conduct and, ultimately, to force Kim Jong Il’s regime to relinquish the nuclear option. The analysis argues that they may well be insufficient, and that further measures are necessary, although in no case should these include military action.
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Iran’s nuclear gamble
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ARI 89/2006 - 7.8.2006
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Nicola Pedde
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The critical dynamics of Iran’s international relations might potentially give way to a multi-level short-term escalation
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China and the Iran crisis
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ARI 49/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 6.1.2006
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Augusto Soto
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China is a party involved in the Iranian crisis, both as a leading buyer and investor in the energy sector being developed by Iran and as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which could once again, in the same way as Iraq, find itself left on the sidelines by the players in a deeper conflict. In recent weeks, the crisis has taken a greater hold, while Beijing maintains a conciliatory and pragmatic attitude, which has allowed it to not lose ground in the Persian Gulf, beyond the freezing of a number of contracts. But the region is no longer what it was, and the cautious calls for Chinese diplomacy conceal a concern for the significant interests invested in Iran during the past five years as part of a far-reaching geopolitical strategy
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Spain and Afghanistan
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ARI 64/2006 - 31.5.2006
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Ahmed Rashid
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A recent seminar organized by the Elcano Royal Institute attempted to better explain Spain’s role in Afghanistan and the need for Spain to continue to support NATO as it takes over greater control of security operations in Afghanistan
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Can Afghanistan Be Rebuilt?
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ARI 30/2006 - 2.3.2006
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Soeren Kern
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An international donor conference held in London has generated substantial new commitments of aid money for Afghanistan. The support comes amid a volatile security situation in the battered country and growing disillusionment among ordinary Afghans over the slowness of reconstruction
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French Nuclear Deterrence According to President Chirac: Reform, Clean Break or Reminder?
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ARI 11/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 24.1.2006
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Félix Arteaga
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This ARI analyses the speech by French President Jacques Chirac on January 19, 2006, at the Île Longue base in Brest, Finisterre, on the subject of France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. The purpose is to determine whether or not the speech contains doctrinal changes and whether it may be interpreted as a veiled threat to Iran.
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Can Multilateralism End the Nuclear Standoff with Iran? (ARI)
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ARI 13/2006 - 6.2.2006
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Soeren Kern
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Meeting in an emergency session on 4 February, the 35-nation decision-making board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted by an overwhelming margin to send Iran’s nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council. The move, which marks an important turning point in international diplomacy towards Iran, initiates a process that could end in punitive sanctions for Tehran if it fails to convince the world that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. The United States and several other countries believe Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The decision to report Iran to the Security Council reflects a backroom compromise between the United States, Britain and France, which want immediate action on Iran, and Russia and China, which are seeking a delay. As a result, the Security Council will not decide on any concrete action until early March in order to give Iran a one-month grace period to comply with IAEA demands. In any case, it remains far from certain whether the often feckless Security Council will be able to prevent the need for military action to change Tehran’s behaviour, and thus turn Iran into a showcase example of effective multilateralism
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The London Bombings and the Broader Strategic Context
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ARI 100/2005 - 20.7.2005
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Magnus Ranstorp
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The UK was uniquely prepared for the challenge of an Islamist terrorist attack in having built an impressively integrated intelligence architecture while pursuing a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy that hinges on making London and British society resilient and in minimising the risks of terrorism. Despite this preparedness the bombers went unnoticed and got through the security dragnet. The London bombings show that the asymmetric threat of terrorism is not going to go away in the near term –instead it is likely to be enduring in nature and potentially deeply divisive within our democratic societies–.
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The new European Gendarmerie Force
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ARI 48/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 9.5.2005
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Enrique Esquivel Lalinde
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The purpose of this analysis is to describe the new force, the European Gendarmerie Force, which undoubtedly is to become a valuable asset in all kinds of crisis management operations. We will review what it involves, how it was created, what are its lines of action and, finally, its place within the European framework
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The Spanish Defence Industry in the Face of Sector Consolidation in Europe (ARI)
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ARI N 44/2005 - 20/4/2005
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Ignacio Cosidó
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The Spanish defence industry has gone through a decade of strong growth, largely as a result of its participation in large-scale programmes for the procurement of military platforms. However, this growth model appears to have run its course and Spain’s industrial sector must be adapted to an increasingly integrated European defence market and to the new strategic and technological demands of the Armed Forces. This reform will require that a strategy be developed for the participation of Spanish industry in the process of European consolidation, a revision of the Defence Ministry’s current procurement policy, and a change in the sector’s mentality and structure. All this should be reflected in a White Paper on the Spanish Industrial Defence Sector, prepared jointly by the Government and industry.
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Is the United States Going to Bomb Iran?
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ARI 12/2005 - 28.1.2005
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Soeren Kern
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A recent flurry of statements by senior US officials indicates that the United States has opted to take a hard-line approach towards Iran, which many analysts believe could build a nuclear bomb within the next four years. European leaders have been quick to stress the need for diplomacy over military action. If EU diplomacy fails to end the standoff with Iran, a confrontation between Washington and Tehran appears inevitable
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China’s military modernisation and the possible end to the EU arms embargo (ARI)
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ARINº 176/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 1/12/2004
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Augusto Soto
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The recent end to the EU arms embargo on Libya, announced in Luxemburg on 11 October, has raised new speculation as to a similar measure with respect to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The country’s armed forces have been undergoing a comprehensive modernisation process over the past decade, but they will not close the technology gap with more advanced countries (something of an embarrassment for an upcoming power) without foreign support. France and Germany lead the interest in lifting the embargo, which was imposed following the Tiananmen repression, and they are supported by Spain
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Bush, Kerry and Iran
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ARI Nº 144/2004 - 24.9.2004
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Soeren Kern
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Whether it’s Bush or Kerry in the White House next year, defusing the nuclear proliferation crisis with Iran –which many analysts believe will acquire nuclear weapons within the next four years– will constitute one of the most complex and pressing challenges facing the next administration
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On Altitude Sickness: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion and the Fight Against Terrorism
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ARI Nº 88/2004(Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004
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Florentino Portero
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The effects of March 11 have brought about an important change in the way Spaniards perceive what their role should be in international affairs. The up-beat viewpoint of recent years, with Spain’s taking on significant responsibilities both in European and Atlantic affairs, has given way to a return to the old attitudes of withdrawal from active participation in international affairs that were characteristic of the period of 19th century prime minister Cánovas del Castillo. Spain is assuming a more secondary role, playing second fiddle to the big European powers and taking a more passive role in the fight against Islamist terrorism.
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Does al-Qaeda have a global strategy?
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ARI Nº 74/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004
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Haizam Amirah Fernández
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The attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year are an example of how terrorists, when choosing a place, time and form of action, can help generate reactions which, in turn, have amplified consequences that serve their purposes. A demonstration of this tragic fact is how those who use terror for their political ends have developed an alarming capacity to analyze and predict events. Their understanding of the realities and mechanisms that govern open societies contrasts with the difficulties these societies face when attempting to predict the strategy and methods used by al-Qaedist groups
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The Fight Against Islamist Terrorism After the March 11 Attacks: Lessons Learnt
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ARI Nº 41/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 23.4.2003
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Carlos Echeverría Jesús
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If there is one thing we should learn from recent terrorist actions, it is the terrorists’ ability to surprise us. This first large-scale Islamist attack in Europe has shown that what some dismissed as alarmist scaremongering has now become a reality. To combat this threat we need greater international coordination and cooperation than there has been so far, enhanced preventative capacity and a root-and-branch rethink of existing terrorist policies
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The Madrid Massacre: The Iraq Connection
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ARI Nº 65/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 21.4.2004
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Juan Avilés
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The March 11 terrorist bomb attacks seem to have had two objectives: the general one of striking at the heart of Europe and the much more specific one of forcing a Spanish withdrawal from Iraq. This analysis explores the possibility of a connection between March 11 and the situation in Iraq
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The Moroccan Combatant Group
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ARI Nº 51 /2004 (Translation from French) - 30.3.2004
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Mohamed Darif
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The author analyzes Morocco’s most active radical Islamist group, reviewing its creation and the presence of Moroccan volunteers in Afghanistan, its relations with Osama Bin Laden and its logistic support to al-Qaeda and, finally, its shift in strategy following the attacks of 11 September 2001 towards more overt terrorist activities
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Terrorism Revisited (ARI)
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ARI Nº 59/2004 - 30/3/2004
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Tomas Valasek
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One of the desired effects of the Madrid bombing seems to have been to splinter the Western alliance. The allies must see through the trap, acknowledge mistakes, produce a stricter definition of the threat of terrorism and create a new strategy for fighting its sources
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Securitizing Migration after 11 March
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ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003
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James C. Ross
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This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid
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New threats from al-Qaeda
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ARI Nº 54/2004 - 24.3.2004
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Juan Avilés (originally published in Spanish 30/11/2002)
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The events of the last few weeks underline the global threat posed by al-Qaeda, which will probably now turn to targets in Europe. Spain should pay particular attention to this risk
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Terrorism in Morocco: a security concern for Spain
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ARI Nº 53/2004 - 24.3.2004
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Domingo del Pino
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The terrorist attacks last May 16 in Casablanca force Spain to pay a greater attention to the state of Morocco’s internal affairs. Eventual instability in Morocco would affect Spain, given the importance of Spanish interests there, of their common sea and land borders and of the nature of the recurrent problems between the two countries. Following is an analysis of how Spanish interests would be affected if the recent attacks eventually led to instability in the Kingdom of Morocco
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The “silver bullet” option: anti-leadership strategies in the fight against terrorist organisations
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ARI Nº 30/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.3.2004
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Román D. Ortiz
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States threatened by terrorism, from the US to Russia and from Israel to Colombia, have pinned a large part of their hopes of ending violence on the use of surgical attacks on the leaders of the armed groups they confront. The trust placed in such anti-leadership actions, however, may be based more on political need than on solid strategic analysis
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Biometric Surveillance: A Need for Public Debate
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ARI Nº 154/2003 - 29.12.2003
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James C. Ross
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Biometric identification systems arguably provide the United States and the European Union with a ‘silver bullet’ solution to some key security challenges –like international terrorism, organised crime and illegal migration– associated with identity theft and document fraud. As the use of biometric technologies extends from the margins to the mainstream, important substantive issues arise concerning data protection, individual privacy and civil liberties
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European Defence-Lite: Why European Defence is Less about Defence and More About Politics
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ARI Nº 141/2003 - 3.12.2003
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Julian Lindley-French
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One of the primary reasons for the split between Europeans over the war in Iraq was the major European players’ need to maximise their influence in the new Europe. The debate brought to the fore the fact that Spain has emerged as a coherent force that could prevent a tri-rectoire of the big three from determining the EU’s strategic direction. Furthermore, EU enlargement should ensure that closeness to the US remains a pre-requisite of effective security and defence
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The demographic obstacles to military recruitment: benchmarks for preserving the numerical strength of the armed forces
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ARI Nº 135/2003 - 19.11.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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The purpose of this analysis is to trigger a debate on the numerical strength of the Spanish armed forces. I present some dramatic demographic developments and show how they are likely to affect the numerical strength of the armed forces in the future. I show that on the basis of the performance of recruitment in 2001 and 2002 the Spanish armed forces are at risk of decreasing by 1,000 soldiers per year as a result of the country’s unfavourable demographic development. If this prediction is confirmed, the implication could be that the armed forces would consist of 62.000 soldiers in 2010 and 52.000 soldiers in 2020. The analysis shows that to overcome these demographic developments the only solution is to have a recruitment success rate of 2.5 ‰ of those aged 18-28 as a benchmark for future recruitment efforts.
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The European Union’s Security Strategy from a Spanish Perspective
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ARI Nº 117/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 9.10.2003
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Félix Arteaga Martín
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This article does not set out to analyze the document presented by the Secretary General and High Representative (hereinafter the Solana Document), but rather makes use of it to compare the interests, objectives and strategies of European and Spanish security. To do this, I have contrasted the Document’s essential guidelines with those defined in similar Spanish documents, although there is a lack of a comprehensive Spanish security strategy that systematizes and makes sense of the security directives that have until now been linked to defence and foreign policies
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Islamist terrorist rings in Spain. Current situation and future outlook
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ARI Nº 119/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 13.10.2003
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Javier Jordán
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We analyse the rise of Islamist terrorist rings, specifically those of Al-Qa’ida, in Spain. To date this country has been used merely as a rearguard area but in the future it could become a direct terrorist target. We examine the reasons for such a change of strategy and propose means to prevent terrorism on Spanish soil
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For a Sustainable Defence
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ARI Nº 84/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 10.6.2003
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Ignacio Cosidó
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Spain is still, despite the increasing ambition of its security policies, the NATO member that spends least on defence. Indeed, to its longstanding shortage of material equipment the Spanish Armed Forces have now added a lack of human resources. However, the containment of military spending was part of a budget-balancing policy that has produced economic growth way above the European average and that now allows the modernisation of the armed forces to be tackled with a more solvent optimism
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Financing ESDP
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ARI Nº 61/2003 - 21.4.2003
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Dr. Antonio Missiroli
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The European Convention is about to focus on how to improve the ‘constitutional’ provisions in this domain and, once again, the main novelties are expected rather on ESDP than CFSP proper. If ESDP wants to prove its relevance and, possibly, have a positive impact also on CFSP, it has to set the right political and institutional incentives to common action. Financial resources are scarce, appropriate capabilities limited, political will intermittent – at best
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Positioning for a post war intervention: the role of Spain
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ARI Nº 47/2003 - 13.3.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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This analysis focuses on the potential role of Spain in the event of a war against Iraq. Being an advocator of military intervention comes with a set of responsibilities to the Iraqi population, particularly after a military intervention. The analysis points out some of the weaknesses for building sustainable peace after a military intervention, and indicates areas where Spain could play an important role in a post war Iraq.
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Economic Aspects of the War in Iraq
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ARI Nº 46/2003 - 12.3.2003
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Paul Isbell
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As the drift towards military action against Iraq continues, the short-term future of the world economy remains in the balance, suspended amid the debilitating hangover effects of the 1990s boom, the deepening rifts between allies in multilateral fora and the unsettling uncertainties of war
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The humanitarian battle in Iraq
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ARI Nº 41/2003 - 28.2.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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The recent debate over war or no war in Iraq has focused on the humanitarian aspects, and the additional human hardship of a possible intervention. The main argument is: forcing Iraq to disarm using military force over available peaceful means would worsen the conditions for the already suffering Iraqi people, and tens of thousand innocent people would die. This analysis aims at clarifying the Iraqi people’s current situation. While it was a high-risk enterprise, the Gulf War has proven less lethal for Iraq’s population than the peaceful resolutions UN has been enforcing since the cease-fire. The analysis assesses the reason for this unfortunate development, and tries to establish in what way the peace agreement backfired. The analysis suggests that the International Community has reached a point where it face no other alternative than to set a time limit for its current choice of policy.
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Iraqi Forced Population Movements
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ARI Nº 8-2003 - 21.1.2003
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Rickard Sandell
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Iraq has a long history of forced population movements. The present analysis is concerned with the current magnitude of these movements and their causes. Also in focus are the potential population movements in the event of an armed conflict on Iraq territory.
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Iraq under Inspection
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ARI Nº 3-2003 - 10.1.2003 (Translation from spanish)
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Manuel Coma
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The Bush Administration has subjected its plan to strip Saddam Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction to a twin compromise, part domestic, part international. This led to the adoption of resolution 1441. The weapons inspection provided for in that resolution is unlikely to achieve anything unless it finds Iraqui defectors prepared to risk sharing their knowledge or is given classified information from the intelligence services
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NATO After Prague: New Missions, New Capabilities
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ARI Nº 112-2002 - 2.12.2002
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William Hopkinson
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NATO has always had both military and political functions. Even if NATO is to die some of them will still need to be conserved. The important thing is to be clear which, and why. The Prague Summit has not helped much with that.
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Morocco-Spain: a relationship difficult to repair
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ARI Nº 106-2002 (Translation from spanish) - 22.11.2002
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Domingo del Pino
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A year after the Moroccan ambassador in Madrid was recalled, relations between Spain and Morocco do not appear to be on track. Hopes placed on the technocratic government of Driss Jettou have vanished quickly.
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Turkey on the Crossroads
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ARI Nº 100-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Fidel Sendagorta
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The victory of the Justice and Development Party in the last Turkish elections and the recent declarations by Valery Giscard d'Estaign, the President of the European Convention, where he stated that the accession of Turkey would mean the end of the EU, have placed two great questions on the table that affect this country in its contemporary history, and which, in turn, are intimately related: the problem of its national identity and the challenge of its link with Europe.
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The Dilemma of the Kurdish Opposition in Iraq
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ARI Nº 99-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Manuel Martorell
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The Kurdish opposition forces, which have governed an independent state "de facto" in the mountainous area in Northern Iraq since the end of the Golf War, have been called to play a significant role in the new crisis that has blown up between Saddam Hussein and the United States. The current international situation has positioned the two main organisations -the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)- in a situation where they may risk their control over Iraqi Kurdistan, by joining the North American stance.
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Iraq and International Public Opinion
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ARI Nº 97-2002 - 11.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Javier Noya
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An analysis of international public opinion regarding a hypothetical attack against Iraq shows, first of all, that in the US, attitudes are more plural, nuanced, and multilateralist than might be deduced from some statements or strategies of the American government. Secondly, despite the widely held view after September 11, there is a notable lack of understanding between the US and Europe
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Iran at a crossroad
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ARI Nº 89-2002 - 29.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Ramón Blecua
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For the past two years, the political situation in Iran has been dominated by a protracted power struggle between different factions, broadly aligned in two opposing camps defined as reformist and conservative. This widely accepted definition could be a misleading simplification of the country's complex political system, this being one of the reasons why many predictions on the evolution of the regime are often proven inaccurate. As Wilfred Buchta has argued in a penetrating essay on the power structure of Iran, "these factions can assume very different positions on different issues, which makes it impossible to categorize a given individual as definitely moderate or radical".
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The United Nations: Iraqi obligations
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ARI Nº 63-2002 - 9.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
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Carlota García Encina and Alicia Sorroza Blanco
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Eleven years ago, after the Gulf War, the United Nations proposed the disarming of Iraq in order to avoid new risks to international security. This objective has still not been accomplished due to the systematic violation of the obligations imposed on the Government of Iraq, and which have been contained in the numerous resolutions adopted by the Security Council. With respect to the current debate on the legitimacy and the legality of an eventual attack on Iraq, it is essential to be familiar with the obligations that have been imposed on the Iraqi regime to date.
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Perejil/Leila: Lessons for Europe. Why Have All Failed?
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ARI Nº 28-2002 - 19.7.2002
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Álvaro de Vasconçelos
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The most shocking aspect of the current crisis is that in the year or so since the Morrocan ambassador was recalled from Madrid, diplomacy has failed on both sides to find solutions to the dispute that poisons relations between Morroco and Spain.
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