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Home> Security & Defense>> ARI
Security & Defense - ARI
Geopolitics 2.0 (ARI)
ARI 144/2009 - 14/10/2009
Matthew Fraser
An entirely new form of virtual weaponry is transforming the dynamics of geopolitics.

Roadmap for a Spanish National Security Strategy (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI 112/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 16/1/2009
Félix Arteaga
Several national security strategies which have been devised in Europe offer guidelines for Spain to develop one of its own.

The Coming NATO Nuclear Debate (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI 117/2008 - 26/9/2008
Bruno Tertrais
This paper analyses NATO’s current nuclear position, the arguments for and against withdrawal, and the need for a calm process of behind-the-doors consultations on this issue, with an open mind and with no taboos. Otherwise, NATO could generate a new controversy between Member States and put at risk the credibility of its nuclear deterrence.

From Fomenting Secessionist Conflicts to Waging Wars: Russia’s Far-reaching Georgia Policies (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI 98/2008 - 3/9/2008
Nodar Tangiashvili
After a protracted confrontation due to the Russian opposition to the restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity, Russia invaded Georgia on 8 August 2008.

Spain in the 21st Century: The Case for a National Security Strategy (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI 91/2008 - 8/8/2008
Charlie Edwards
France and the UK have just released their national security and defence strategies in 2008. For Spain the case for a national security strategy is growing because it shares the same complex and uncertain strategic challenges.

The French White Paper on Defence and National Security: Towards a Stronger and More Streamlined Force (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI 89/2008 - 7/8/2008
Bruno Tertrais
The President of the French Republic, Nicolas Sarkozy, presented a new and far-reaching White Paper on Security and Defence on 17 July 2008.

Sarkozy’s Dilemmas, the Forthcoming French EU Presidency and ESDP: What’s in it for Europe? (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI 76/2008 - 7/7/2008
Luis Simón Navarro
This ARI aims to identify the key policy and political aspects of the debates on ESDP during the French EU Presidency (July-December 2008) and beyond.

The UK’s First National Security Strategy: A Critical and Selective Evaluation (ARI)
ARI 74/2008 - 4/7/2008
Frank Gregory
In March 2008 the Prime Minister presented in Parliament the National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom, a plan that includes counter-terrorist and civil contingencies dimensions.

Neighbours, Allies and Giants: Three Themes in Australian Strategic Thinking (ARI)
ARI 71/2008 - 3/7/2008
Robert Ayson
Australian strategic thinking is a challenging balancing act between three priorities: local developments in Australia’s immediate neighbourhood, alliance commitments at the global level and coping with the rise of the Asian giants.

In Spain's interest: A Committed Foreign Policy
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(Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2008
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
An address by the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE. (This text is also available in French: Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée).

After NATO’s Bucharest Summit (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI 60/2008 - 10/6/2008
Fernando del Pozo
In general terms NATO’s Bucharest Summit has been a success. The outcome was less satisfactory regarding the design of a new Strategic Concept, but the hope is that the Declaration on Alliance Security should lead to progress being made for the next Summit, to be held in the spring of 2009 in Strasbourg and Kehl.

Chad: Democratisation Challenges and Limits of International Intervention (ARI)
ARI 59/2008 - 6/6/2008
Paul-Simon Handy
International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping Chadian political actors to reform the country’s social contract instead of focusing on preserving stability and, thus, becoming part of the problem and not of the solution.

The European Defence Agency in the Wake of the Treaty of Lisbon (ARI)
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ARI 33/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/4/2008
Carlos Martí Sempere
The EU Treaty approved in Lisbon incorporates the European Defence Agency among the European institutions aimed at supporting the new Common Security and Defence Policy.

The Chad Conflict, United Nations (MINURCAT) and the European Union (EUFOR) (ARI)
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ARI 20/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/3/2008
Félix Arteaga
The European EUFOR Chad/CAR mission, in support of humanitarian and police action for the United Nations mission in Chad and the Central African Republic, has been suspended until peace is restored to the region.

Pateras, cayucos and Cross-border Mafias in Africa: Profiting from the Atlantic Routes to the Canary Islands (ARI)
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ARI 14/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/3/2008
Francisco Javier Vélez Alcalde
This ARI describes the criminal business of profiting from the Atlantic routes of illegal immigration to the Canary Islands.

The NATO Summit in Bucharest (ARI)
ARI 24/2008 - 26/2/08
Fernando del Pozo
Expectations are high ahead of the NATO Summit to be held in Bucharest on 2-4 April 2008

Australia’s Strategic Priorities: Challenges for a New Government (ARI)
ARI 19/2008 - 11/2/2008
Rod Lyon
The key decisions on strategic priorities to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government are analysed in this ARI. The key decisions on strategic priorities to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government are analysed in this ARI.

Iraq and Afghanistan: A Comparison Based on International Law (ARI)
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ARI 10/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/2/2008
Luis M. Hinojosa Martínez
This ARI differentiates from a legal standpoint the interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq and examines the consequences for Spanish foreign policy.

The Contribution of the Spanish Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Qala e Naw to the Reconstruction and Development of Afghanistan (ARI)
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ARI 6/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/2/2008
Rafael Roel Fernández
A description of the activities of Spanish soldiers in the province of Badghis, in whose capital, Qala-e-Naw, the Spanish Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) is deployed.

Risks Facing the Spanish Contingent in Afghanistan (ARI)
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ARI 128/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/1/2008
Carlos Echeverría Jesús
A detailed analysis of the nature of the current and potential threat that the Spanish contingent will have to face in the immediate future is required in the light of increased risks in Spain’s deployment zone in Afghanistan in recent months, the worsening of the conflict in a large part of the country and the intensification of terrorist activity in neighbouring Pakistan.

The Merida Initiative: Challenges in the Fight against Crime and Drug Trafficking in Mexico (ARI)
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ARI 130/2007 (translated from Spanish) - 18/12/2007
Raúl Benítez Manaut
The Presidents of Mexico and the US agreed that Mexico would receive an aid package totalling US$1.4 billion over three years. The package was called the Merida Initiative so as to avoid being compared to the controversial Plan Colombia.

From SDI to BMD: the evolution of the US anti-missile shield (ARI)
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ARI 98/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/10/2006
Guillem Colom Piella
This ARI reviews the gestation, evolution and current situation of anti-missile defence in the US, from its Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) to its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).

America’s ABM Shield in Europe and Russia’s Response (ARI)
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ARI 101/2007 - 21/9/2007
Ivan Konovalov
Washington’s decision to deploy the third phase of its global anti-missile defence system in two Eastern European countries is being regarded in Moscow as the most serious external threat to Russia’s security system since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Maritime Illegal Migration Towards the European Union: The Command and Control Centre in the Canary Islands (Centro de Coordinación Regional de Canarias – CCRC) (ARI)
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ARI 54/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/9/2007
Félix Arteaga
This ARI describes the organisation and coordination procedures put in place by the Canary Islands Regional Coordination Centre (Centro de Coordinación Regional de Canarias – CCRC) in the fight against illegal immigration by sea along the southern border of Spain and of the European Union.

Sarkozy’s Defence Policy: An Early Look (ARI)
ARI 69/2007 - 21/6/2007
Antonio Ortiz

The election of Nicolas Sarkozy as the new French President and the potential changes in the French security and defence policy.

Modernising National Defence: The Chilean Case (ARI)
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ARI 11/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/2/2007
Marina Malamud
Chile’s process of State reform has made progress in many spheres of the public administration; however, the modernisation of the Ministry of Defence is still pending, partly due to a heated internal political debate.

North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Are the Security Council’s Sanctions Enough? (ARI)
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ARI 109/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/12/2006
Pablo Bustelo
This analysis assesses whether the sanctions against North Korea approved recently by the United Nations Security Council are sufficient or not to substantially modify Pyongyang’s conduct and, ultimately, to force Kim Jong Il’s regime to relinquish the nuclear option. The analysis argues that they may well be insufficient, and that further measures are necessary, although in no case should these include military action.

Iran’s nuclear gamble
ARI 89/2006 - 7.8.2006
Nicola Pedde
The critical dynamics of Iran’s international relations might potentially give way to a multi-level short-term escalation

China and the Iran crisis
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ARI 49/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 6.1.2006
Augusto Soto
China is a party involved in the Iranian crisis, both as a leading buyer and investor in the energy sector being developed by Iran and as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which could once again, in the same way as Iraq, find itself left on the sidelines by the players in a deeper conflict. In recent weeks, the crisis has taken a greater hold, while Beijing maintains a conciliatory and pragmatic attitude, which has allowed it to not lose ground in the Persian Gulf, beyond the freezing of a number of contracts. But the region is no longer what it was, and the cautious calls for Chinese diplomacy conceal a concern for the significant interests invested in Iran during the past five years as part of a far-reaching geopolitical strategy

Spain and Afghanistan
Go to Spanish version
ARI 64/2006 - 31.5.2006
Ahmed Rashid
A recent seminar organized by the Elcano Royal Institute attempted to better explain Spain’s role in Afghanistan and the need for Spain to continue to support NATO as it takes over greater control of security operations in Afghanistan

Can Afghanistan Be Rebuilt?
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ARI 30/2006 - 2.3.2006
Soeren Kern
An international donor conference held in London has generated substantial new commitments of aid money for Afghanistan. The support comes amid a volatile security situation in the battered country and growing disillusionment among ordinary Afghans over the slowness of reconstruction

Adjusting Military Forces to the New Security Environment, the Case of Three ‘Middle Powers’: Australia, The Netherlands and Norway
Go to Spanish version
ARI 21/2006 - 23.2.2006
Roger Cabrera
This paper provides an overview of the military policies designed and implemented by three mid-sized countries in the context of the current international security environment.

French Nuclear Deterrence According to President Chirac: Reform, Clean Break or Reminder?
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ARI 11/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 24.1.2006
Félix Arteaga
This ARI analyses the speech by French President Jacques Chirac on January 19, 2006, at the Île Longue base in Brest, Finisterre, on the subject of France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. The purpose is to determine whether or not the speech contains doctrinal changes and whether it may be interpreted as a veiled threat to Iran.

Can Multilateralism End the Nuclear Standoff with Iran? (ARI)
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ARI 13/2006 - 6.2.2006
Soeren Kern
Meeting in an emergency session on 4 February, the 35-nation decision-making board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted by an overwhelming margin to send Iran’s nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council. The move, which marks an important turning point in international diplomacy towards Iran, initiates a process that could end in punitive sanctions for Tehran if it fails to convince the world that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. The United States and several other countries believe Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The decision to report Iran to the Security Council reflects a backroom compromise between the United States, Britain and France, which want immediate action on Iran, and Russia and China, which are seeking a delay. As a result, the Security Council will not decide on any concrete action until early March in order to give Iran a one-month grace period to comply with IAEA demands. In any case, it remains far from certain whether the often feckless Security Council will be able to prevent the need for military action to change Tehran’s behaviour, and thus turn Iran into a showcase example of effective multilateralism

The London Bombings and the Broader Strategic Context
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ARI 100/2005 - 20.7.2005
Magnus Ranstorp
The UK was uniquely prepared for the challenge of an Islamist terrorist attack in having built an impressively integrated intelligence architecture while pursuing a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy that hinges on making London and British society resilient and in minimising the risks of terrorism. Despite this preparedness the bombers went unnoticed and got through the security dragnet. The London bombings show that the asymmetric threat of terrorism is not going to go away in the near term –instead it is likely to be enduring in nature and potentially deeply divisive within our democratic societies–.

The new European Gendarmerie Force
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ARI 48/2005 (Translated from Spanish) - 9.5.2005
Enrique Esquivel Lalinde
The purpose of this analysis is to describe the new force, the European Gendarmerie Force, which undoubtedly is to become a valuable asset in all kinds of crisis management operations. We will review what it involves, how it was created, what are its lines of action and, finally, its place within the European framework

The Spanish Defence Industry in the Face of Sector Consolidation in Europe (ARI)
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ARI N 44/2005 - 20/4/2005
Ignacio Cosidó
The Spanish defence industry has gone through a decade of strong growth, largely as a result of its participation in large-scale programmes for the procurement of military platforms. However, this growth model appears to have run its course and Spain’s industrial sector must be adapted to an increasingly integrated European defence market and to the new strategic and technological demands of the Armed Forces. This reform will require that a strategy be developed for the participation of Spanish industry in the process of European consolidation, a revision of the Defence Ministry’s current procurement policy, and a change in the sector’s mentality and structure. All this should be reflected in a White Paper on the Spanish Industrial Defence Sector, prepared jointly by the Government and industry.

Is the United States Going to Bomb Iran?
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ARI 12/2005 - 28.1.2005
Soeren Kern
A recent flurry of statements by senior US officials indicates that the United States has opted to take a hard-line approach towards Iran, which many analysts believe could build a nuclear bomb within the next four years. European leaders have been quick to stress the need for diplomacy over military action. If EU diplomacy fails to end the standoff with Iran, a confrontation between Washington and Tehran appears inevitable

China’s military modernisation and the possible end to the EU arms embargo (ARI)
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ARINº 176/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 1/12/2004
Augusto Soto
The recent end to the EU arms embargo on Libya, announced in Luxemburg on 11 October, has raised new speculation as to a similar measure with respect to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The country’s armed forces have been undergoing a comprehensive modernisation process over the past decade, but they will not close the technology gap with more advanced countries (something of an embarrassment for an upcoming power) without foreign support. France and Germany lead the interest in lifting the embargo, which was imposed following the Tiananmen repression, and they are supported by Spain

Bush, Kerry and Iran
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ARI Nº 144/2004 - 24.9.2004
Soeren Kern
Whether it’s Bush or Kerry in the White House next year, defusing the nuclear proliferation crisis with Iran –which many analysts believe will acquire nuclear weapons within the next four years– will constitute one of the most complex and pressing challenges facing the next administration

On Altitude Sickness: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion and the Fight Against Terrorism
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ARI Nº 88/2004(Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004
Florentino Portero
The effects of March 11 have brought about an important change in the way Spaniards perceive what their role should be in international affairs. The up-beat viewpoint of recent years, with Spain’s taking on significant responsibilities both in European and Atlantic affairs, has given way to a return to the old attitudes of withdrawal from active participation in international affairs that were characteristic of the period of 19th century prime minister Cánovas del Castillo. Spain is assuming a more secondary role, playing second fiddle to the big European powers and taking a more passive role in the fight against Islamist terrorism.

Does al-Qaeda have a global strategy?
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ARI Nº 74/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004
Haizam Amirah Fernández
The attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year are an example of how terrorists, when choosing a place, time and form of action, can help generate reactions which, in turn, have amplified consequences that serve their purposes. A demonstration of this tragic fact is how those who use terror for their political ends have developed an alarming capacity to analyze and predict events. Their understanding of the realities and mechanisms that govern open societies contrasts with the difficulties these societies face when attempting to predict the strategy and methods used by al-Qaedist groups

The Fight Against Islamist Terrorism After the March 11 Attacks: Lessons Learnt
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ARI Nº 41/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 23.4.2003
Carlos Echeverría Jesús
If there is one thing we should learn from recent terrorist actions, it is the terrorists’ ability to surprise us. This first large-scale Islamist attack in Europe has shown that what some dismissed as alarmist scaremongering has now become a reality. To combat this threat we need greater international coordination and cooperation than there has been so far, enhanced preventative capacity and a root-and-branch rethink of existing terrorist policies

The Madrid Massacre: The Iraq Connection
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ARI Nº 65/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 21.4.2004
Juan Avilés
The March 11 terrorist bomb attacks seem to have had two objectives: the general one of striking at the heart of Europe and the much more specific one of forcing a Spanish withdrawal from Iraq. This analysis explores the possibility of a connection between March 11 and the situation in Iraq

Behind the Moroccan Terrorist Connection: State Policies and Saudi Wahhabism (ARI)
ARI Nº 60/2004 - 31/3/2004
Abdeslam Maghraoui
Contrary to what is usually believed, a survey by the Pew Research Center indicates that religious intolerance and radicalization is wide and deep in Moroccan society

The Madrid Massacre: Mistakes Made and Mistakes to be Avoided (ARI)
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ARI Nº 50/2004 - 31/3/2004
Juan Avilés
The terrorist outrage of 3/11 was the work, according to available information, of an al-Qaeda cell, probably trying to force Spain to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

The European Union and its Fight Against Terrorism (ARI)
Go to Spanish version
ARI Nº 42/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 31/3/2004
Félix Arteaga Martín
As in the aftermath of 9-11, the 3-11 tragedy has made the fight against terrorism a priority on the EU’s political agenda

The Moroccan Combatant Group
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ARI Nº 51 /2004 (Translation from French) - 30.3.2004
Mohamed Darif
The author analyzes Morocco’s most active radical Islamist group, reviewing its creation and the presence of Moroccan volunteers in Afghanistan, its relations with Osama Bin Laden and its logistic support to al-Qaeda and, finally, its shift in strategy following the attacks of 11 September 2001 towards more overt terrorist activities

Terrorism Revisited (ARI)
ARI Nº 59/2004 - 30/3/2004
Tomas Valasek
One of the desired effects of the Madrid bombing seems to have been to splinter the Western alliance. The allies must see through the trap, acknowledge mistakes, produce a stricter definition of the threat of terrorism and create a new strategy for fighting its sources

Securitizing Migration after 11 March
ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003
James C. Ross
This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid

Possible consequences of the terrorist attacks in Madrid
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ARI Nº 40/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 25.3.2004
Javier Jordán
These are a series of considerations on the consequences of the attacks of 11 March, with some suggestions that may help stem the most negative effects

New threats from al-Qaeda
ARI Nº 54/2004 - 24.3.2004
Juan Avilés (originally published in Spanish 30/11/2002)
The events of the last few weeks underline the global threat posed by al-Qaeda, which will probably now turn to targets in Europe. Spain should pay particular attention to this risk

Terrorism in Morocco: a security concern for Spain
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ARI Nº 53/2004 - 24.3.2004
Domingo del Pino
The terrorist attacks last May 16 in Casablanca force Spain to pay a greater attention to the state of Morocco’s internal affairs. Eventual instability in Morocco would affect Spain, given the importance of Spanish interests there, of their common sea and land borders and of the nature of the recurrent problems between the two countries. Following is an analysis of how Spanish interests would be affected if the recent attacks eventually led to instability in the Kingdom of Morocco

The “silver bullet” option: anti-leadership strategies in the fight against terrorist organisations
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ARI Nº 30/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.3.2004
Román D. Ortiz
States threatened by terrorism, from the US to Russia and from Israel to Colombia, have pinned a large part of their hopes of ending violence on the use of surgical attacks on the leaders of the armed groups they confront. The trust placed in such anti-leadership actions, however, may be based more on political need than on solid strategic analysis

Biometric Surveillance: A Need for Public Debate
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ARI Nº 154/2003 - 29.12.2003
James C. Ross
Biometric identification systems arguably provide the United States and the European Union with a ‘silver bullet’ solution to some key security challenges –like international terrorism, organised crime and illegal migration– associated with identity theft and document fraud. As the use of biometric technologies extends from the margins to the mainstream, important substantive issues arise concerning data protection, individual privacy and civil liberties

European Defence-Lite: Why European Defence is Less about Defence and More About Politics
ARI Nº 141/2003 - 3.12.2003
Julian Lindley-French
One of the primary reasons for the split between Europeans over the war in Iraq was the major European players’ need to maximise their influence in the new Europe. The debate brought to the fore the fact that Spain has emerged as a coherent force that could prevent a tri-rectoire of the big three from determining the EU’s strategic direction. Furthermore, EU enlargement should ensure that closeness to the US remains a pre-requisite of effective security and defence

The demographic obstacles to military recruitment: benchmarks for preserving the numerical strength of the armed forces
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ARI Nº 135/2003 - 19.11.2003
Rickard Sandell
The purpose of this analysis is to trigger a debate on the numerical strength of the Spanish armed forces. I present some dramatic demographic developments and show how they are likely to affect the numerical strength of the armed forces in the future. I show that on the basis of the performance of recruitment in 2001 and 2002 the Spanish armed forces are at risk of decreasing by 1,000 soldiers per year as a result of the country’s unfavourable demographic development. If this prediction is confirmed, the implication could be that the armed forces would consist of 62.000 soldiers in 2010 and 52.000 soldiers in 2020. The analysis shows that to overcome these demographic developments the only solution is to have a recruitment success rate of 2.5 ‰ of those aged 18-28 as a benchmark for future recruitment efforts.

The European Union’s Security Strategy from a Spanish Perspective
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ARI Nº 117/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 9.10.2003
Félix Arteaga Martín
This article does not set out to analyze the document presented by the Secretary General and High Representative (hereinafter the Solana Document), but rather makes use of it to compare the interests, objectives and strategies of European and Spanish security. To do this, I have contrasted the Document’s essential guidelines with those defined in similar Spanish documents, although there is a lack of a comprehensive Spanish security strategy that systematizes and makes sense of the security directives that have until now been linked to defence and foreign policies

Islamist terrorist rings in Spain. Current situation and future outlook
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ARI Nº 119/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 13.10.2003
Javier Jordán
We analyse the rise of Islamist terrorist rings, specifically those of Al-Qa’ida, in Spain. To date this country has been used merely as a rearguard area but in the future it could become a direct terrorist target. We examine the reasons for such a change of strategy and propose means to prevent terrorism on Spanish soil

For a Sustainable Defence
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ARI Nº 84/2003 (Translation from Spanish) - 10.6.2003
Ignacio Cosidó
Spain is still, despite the increasing ambition of its security policies, the NATO member that spends least on defence. Indeed, to its longstanding shortage of material equipment the Spanish Armed Forces have now added a lack of human resources. However, the containment of military spending was part of a budget-balancing policy that has produced economic growth way above the European average and that now allows the modernisation of the armed forces to be tackled with a more solvent optimism

Financing ESDP
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ARI Nº 61/2003 - 21.4.2003
Dr. Antonio Missiroli
The European Convention is about to focus on how to improve the ‘constitutional’ provisions in this domain and, once again, the main novelties are expected rather on ESDP than CFSP proper. If ESDP wants to prove its relevance and, possibly, have a positive impact also on CFSP, it has to set the right political and institutional incentives to common action. Financial resources are scarce, appropriate capabilities limited, political will intermittent – at best

Positioning for a post war intervention: the role of Spain
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ARI Nº 47/2003 - 13.3.2003
Rickard Sandell
This analysis focuses on the potential role of Spain in the event of a war against Iraq. Being an advocator of military intervention comes with a set of responsibilities to the Iraqi population, particularly after a military intervention. The analysis points out some of the weaknesses for building sustainable peace after a military intervention, and indicates areas where Spain could play an important role in a post war Iraq.

Economic Aspects of the War in Iraq
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ARI Nº 46/2003 - 12.3.2003
Paul Isbell
As the drift towards military action against Iraq continues, the short-term future of the world economy remains in the balance, suspended amid the debilitating hangover effects of the 1990s boom, the deepening rifts between allies in multilateral fora and the unsettling uncertainties of war

The humanitarian battle in Iraq
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ARI Nº 41/2003 - 28.2.2003
Rickard Sandell
The recent debate over war or no war in Iraq has focused on the humanitarian aspects, and the additional human hardship of a possible intervention. The main argument is: forcing Iraq to disarm using military force over available peaceful means would worsen the conditions for the already suffering Iraqi people, and tens of thousand innocent people would die. This analysis aims at clarifying the Iraqi people’s current situation. While it was a high-risk enterprise, the Gulf War has proven less lethal for Iraq’s population than the peaceful resolutions UN has been enforcing since the cease-fire. The analysis assesses the reason for this unfortunate development, and tries to establish in what way the peace agreement backfired. The analysis suggests that the International Community has reached a point where it face no other alternative than to set a time limit for its current choice of policy.

Iraqi Forced Population Movements
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ARI Nº 8-2003 - 21.1.2003
Rickard Sandell
Iraq has a long history of forced population movements. The present analysis is concerned with the current magnitude of these movements and their causes. Also in focus are the potential population movements in the event of an armed conflict on Iraq territory.

Iraq under Inspection
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ARI Nº 3-2003 - 10.1.2003 (Translation from spanish)
Manuel Coma
The Bush Administration has subjected its plan to strip Saddam Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction to a twin compromise, part domestic, part international. This led to the adoption of resolution 1441. The weapons inspection provided for in that resolution is unlikely to achieve anything unless it finds Iraqui defectors prepared to risk sharing their knowledge or is given classified information from the intelligence services

NATO After Prague: New Missions, New Capabilities
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ARI Nº 112-2002 - 2.12.2002
William Hopkinson
NATO has always had both military and political functions. Even if NATO is to die some of them will still need to be conserved. The important thing is to be clear which, and why. The Prague Summit has not helped much with that.

Morocco-Spain: a relationship difficult to repair
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ARI Nº 106-2002 (Translation from spanish) - 22.11.2002
Domingo del Pino
A year after the Moroccan ambassador in Madrid was recalled, relations between Spain and Morocco do not appear to be on track. Hopes placed on the technocratic government of Driss Jettou have vanished quickly.

Turkey on the Crossroads
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ARI Nº 100-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
Fidel Sendagorta
The victory of the Justice and Development Party in the last Turkish elections and the recent declarations by Valery Giscard d'Estaign, the President of the European Convention, where he stated that the accession of Turkey would mean the end of the EU, have placed two great questions on the table that affect this country in its contemporary history, and which, in turn, are intimately related: the problem of its national identity and the challenge of its link with Europe.

The Dilemma of the Kurdish Opposition in Iraq
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ARI Nº 99-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
Manuel Martorell
The Kurdish opposition forces, which have governed an independent state "de facto" in the mountainous area in Northern Iraq since the end of the Golf War, have been called to play a significant role in the new crisis that has blown up between Saddam Hussein and the United States. The current international situation has positioned the two main organisations -the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)- in a situation where they may risk their control over Iraqi Kurdistan, by joining the North American stance.

Iraq and International Public Opinion
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ARI Nº 97-2002 - 11.11.2002 (Translation from spanish)
Javier Noya
An analysis of international public opinion regarding a hypothetical attack against Iraq shows, first of all, that in the US, attitudes are more plural, nuanced, and multilateralist than might be deduced from some statements or strategies of the American government. Secondly, despite the widely held view after September 11, there is a notable lack of understanding between the US and Europe

Iran at a crossroad
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ARI Nº 89-2002 - 29.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
Ramón Blecua
For the past two years, the political situation in Iran has been dominated by a protracted power struggle between different factions, broadly aligned in two opposing camps defined as reformist and conservative. This widely accepted definition could be a misleading simplification of the country's complex political system, this being one of the reasons why many predictions on the evolution of the regime are often proven inaccurate. As Wilfred Buchta has argued in a penetrating essay on the power structure of Iran, "these factions can assume very different positions on different issues, which makes it impossible to categorize a given individual as definitely moderate or radical".

The United Nations: Iraqi obligations
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ARI Nº 63-2002 - 9.10.2002 (Translation from spanish)
Carlota García Encina and Alicia Sorroza Blanco
Eleven years ago, after the Gulf War, the United Nations proposed the disarming of Iraq in order to avoid new risks to international security. This objective has still not been accomplished due to the systematic violation of the obligations imposed on the Government of Iraq, and which have been contained in the numerous resolutions adopted by the Security Council. With respect to the current debate on the legitimacy and the legality of an eventual attack on Iraq, it is essential to be familiar with the obligations that have been imposed on the Iraqi regime to date.

Russian domestic reaction to the Russia-NATO Council and its consequences for Putin's pro-Western policy
ARI Nº 46-2002 - 7.9.2002
Sonia Alonso Sáenz de Oger
Many analysts agree that the creation of the Russia-NATO Council has left Vladimir Putin isolated at home, hostage of his foreign policy and security establishments, without qualified and willing people to make it succeed and with public opinion suspicious, if not directly afraid, of the Western threat.

Perejil/Leila: Lessons for Europe. Why Have All Failed?
ARI Nº 28-2002 - 19.7.2002
Álvaro de Vasconçelos
The most shocking aspect of the current crisis is that in the year or so since the Morrocan ambassador was recalled from Madrid, diplomacy has failed on both sides to find solutions to the dispute that poisons relations between Morroco and Spain.

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