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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : Mediterranean & Arab World
The missing spring in the EU’s Mediterranean policies TGAE-Elcano 1/2013 - 22/3/2013 Haizam Amirah-Fernández and Timo Behr The fall of the wall of fear in Arab societies represents a major challenge, of unknown proportions for Europe, but also an unprecedented opportunity for building a new regional stability based on good governance, inclusive development and mutually beneficial exchanges.
Mirages of the Anxious Brotherhood Expert Comment 7/2013 - 18/1/2013 Haizam Amirah-Fernández On 25 January many Egyptians will be commemorating the second anniversary of the revolt that brought down the Mubarak dictatorship. If the Muslim Brothers’ grass-roots and youth supporters fail to correct their leaders’ authoritarian drift, the revolutionaries’ rage may well be directed at the Brotherhood.
Challenges for the Financial Systems and the Monetary Policy Regimes in Southern Mediterranean Countries After the Crisis (ARI) ARI 13/2012 - 5/3/2012 Pilar L’Hotellerie-Fallois, Luis Orgaz and Pedro del Río This ARI reviews some aspects of the financial systems and the design and implementation of monetary policy regimes by central banks in the southern Mediterranean countries in order to assess the scope for changes in these areas.
The Economic Crisis and the Emerging Powers: Towards a New International Order? 20/2/2012 Robin Niblett The real challenges to the existing international order will come not from the established or emerging powers, but from global forces that are beyond their control and also from those non-state entities and groups which seek to undermine the process of globalisation that links all states and societies ever closer together.
Tour d’ Horizon 27/6/2011 HRH Prince Turki AlFaisal Speech by HRH Prince Turki AlFaisal of Saudi Arabia at the Elcano Royal Institute (Madrid) on 26 September 2011.
The International Energy Agency Responds to the Libyan Crisis (ARI) ARI 117/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 21/7/2011 Gonzalo Escribano On 23 June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 60 million barrels of its members’ strategic petroleum reserves in July. In justifying the move, the IEA cited the need to mitigate the effects of the Libyan crisis, but it has been interpreted as a call for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost production and not jeopardise the economic recovery, as well as giving Saudi Arabia time to make the announced production increase materialise.
Elcano Dossier on the Arab Unrest Nº 3 21/7/2011 Silvia Montero and Juan A. Sánchez, Elcano Royal Institute Monthly analysis of the Arab unrest highlights.
Elcano Dossier on the Arab Unrest Nº 2 13/6/2011 Silvia Montero and Juan A. Sánchez, Elcano Royal Institute Monthly analysis of the Arab unrest highlights.
Towards a Paradigm Shift in Euro-Mediterranean Relations (ARI) ARI 76/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/6/2011 Haizam Amirah-Fernández and Eduard Soler i Lecha Euro-Mediterranean relations call for a ‘mental revolution’ on the European side in order to truly understand and react to the wave of changes that are extending throughout the Arab countries and transforming their societies’ political culture.
Reframing the Libyan Narrative (ARI) ARI 96/2011 - 23/5/2011 Ronald Bruce St John The rebel movement in Libya is slowly building on its limited military capacity and experience and is making good progress in achieving domestic and international legitimacy, but much remains to be done before it is a functional state.
Elcano Dossier on the Arab Unrest Nº 1 10/5/2011 Elcano Royal Institute Monthly analysis of the Arab unrest highlights.
Recent Arrivals of Migrants and Asylum Seekers by Sea to Italy: Problems and Reactions (ARI) ARI 75/2011 - 13/4/2011 Paola Monzini The Italian government’s answer to the mass arrival of undocumented migrants and asylum seekers since the beginning of the present wave of political turmoil in North Africa must be seen in the context of both domestic political issues and international constraints.
Human Rights: An Obstacle to Peace in the Western Sahara? (ARI) ARI 47/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/4/2011 Renata Capella Soler The establishment of a human rights monitoring mechanism in the Western Sahara, preferably through an expansion of MINURSO’s mandate, would change the underlying dynamics of the conflict and allow for progress in the negotiation process.
Some Comments on the ‘Egyptian Revolution’ of 2011 (ARI) ARI 45/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 21/3/2011 Andreu Claret The so-called ‘Egyptian Revolution’, led by the country’s middle-class urban youth, has led to sweeping social and cultural changes that constitute the main asset for a transition towards a more democratic regime, despite the uncertainties regarding the political future following the fall of Mubarak.
The Yemen Uprising: Imperatives for Change and Potential Risks (ARI) ARI 58/2011 - 21/3/2011 Abdullah Al-faqih The Saleh era has been marked by rampant corruption, personalisation of the State, the distortion of culture, social divisiveness and rent-seeking. In the eyes of many Yemenis, President Ali Abdullah Saleh is now part of the problem, not the solution.
International Relations of the Gulf: Interests, Alliances, Dilemmas and Paradoxes (ARI) ARI 48/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/3/2011 Haizam Amirah-Fernández Security and the intervention of external powers are at the heart of the foreign policies of the Gulf countries.
Thoughts on the Tunisian revolution (ARI) ARI 34/2011 - 15/2/2011 Ahmed Driss After 23 years of reign without sharing, the regime of the president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fell after only a little less than a month of contesting of unprecedented scale. After more than two decades of silence and fear, Tunisians dared and tried the unthinkable.
Tunisian Uniqueness? The Limits of Regional Contagion (ARI) ARI 15/2011 (Translated from French) - 14/2/2011 Abdennour Benantar The Tunisian regime had stressed economic liberalism in order to overshadow political liberalism; however the people’s uprising has made plain the failure of the attempt. (Original version in French)
Singularité tunisienne? Les limites d’une contagion régionale (ARI) ARI 15/2011 - 26/01/2011 Abdennour Benantar Le régime tunisien avait mis en exergue le libéralisme économique pour occulter le libéralisme politique, mais la révolte populaire a révélé l’échec de son entreprise.
How to Break the Siege of Gaza? (ARI) ARI 106/2010 - 21/6/2010 Lev Luis Grinberg This ARI looks at the siege of Gaza from a historical and political perspective and suggests what the international community can do to end it and prevent a further escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Le Maroc dans la nouvelle carte économique de la Méditerranée (ARI) ARI 150/2011 - 15/11/2011 Gonzalo Escribano La vague de changement qui secoue le Nord de l’Afrique a détérioré les économies des pays les plus affectés. Le Maroc est le seule pays de la région qui continue à montrer un dynamisme économique significatif, lui offrant une fenêtre d’opportunité pour se positionner sur la nouvelle carte économique méditerranéenne.
Too Big a World? Lula, Brazil and the Middle East (ARI) ARI 62/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/5/2010 Günther Maihold The new activism of the Brazilian government and its President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in the Middle East has opened up a new front for Brazil’s foreign policy, with significant risks to the chances of its experienced leader engineering a successful outcome.
The Slow Pace of Reform Clouds the Libyan Succession (ARI) ARI 45/2010 - 11/3/2010 Ronald Bruce St John In the uncertain and shifting dynamics of Libyan politics, effective power today rests in the hands of the Leader and a few trusted advisors in a system firmly grounded in family ties and tribal loyalties and buttressed by the military and various security organisations.
The Priorities of Spain’s EU Presidency in the Mediterranean: Ideal and Reality (ARI) ARI 34/2010 - 16/2/2010 Iván Martín Spain’s EU Presidency poses major challenges for the country’s interests and strategic clout in the Mediterranean, in the new regional geopolitical context that has emerged in the wake of the creation of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM).
The Challenges of Dealing with Yemen’s Deep Crises (ARI) ARI 29/2010 - 4/2/2010 Abdullah Al-faqih President Saleh’s foremost concern is to keep total economic and political power in his own hands as long as he lives, and to hand it down to his son afterwards. The US and the international community are concerned with the threat posed by al-Qaeda to regional and international peace and many educated Yemenis are concerned about the potential for tension between Saleh’s goal and that of the international community.
The US, the Mediterranean and Transatlantic Strategies (ARI) ARI 141/2009 - 1/10/2009 Ian O. Lesser Cooperation in the Mediterranean is likely to be a key test for the quality of US-EU partnership over the next few years.
Algeria: The Subterranean Logics of a Non-election (ARI) ARI 68/2009 - 22/4/2009 Hugh Roberts Algeria has just held what it calls a presidential election. It has done so at intervals since 1995 and these have regularly been a cause for dissatisfaction at home and abroad. But what exactly are these events that so consistently fail to measure up to widespread expectations? This ARI explains that they are not really elections at all and that the expectations entertained in respect of them are entirely misplaced.
The Gaza War: Antecedents and Consequences (ARI) ARI 21/2009 - 3/2/2009 Augustus Richard Norton When Israel launched the Gaza war on 27 December 2008, it chose an opportune moment. Nonetheless, much like the Lebanon war of 2006, Israel’s strategic gains in ‘Operation Cast Lead’ have dissipated day by day.
Plus ça Change, Plus c'est la Même Chose: The Political Economy of Rent-driven Development in Mauritania (ARI) ARI 134/2008 - 21/10/2008 Nicola Pontara After four decades of rent-driven development that has systematically killed off competition in the main sectors of the economy, Mauritania remains inherently prone to authoritarian intervention when powerful interests are threatened.
Towards Mediterranean Migration Management 2008? Developing Discourse and Practices (ARI) ARI 54/2008 - 2/6/2008 Michael Collyer Ongoing EU negotiations with the African Union have identified a number of clear, achievable steps, which might bring more positive ideals of Mediterranean migration management a little closer.
Lebanon in Limbo (ARI) ARI 2/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/1/2008 Julia Choucair Visozo The presidential election in Lebanon has become the latest battle between two political coalitions competing for the reins of the country’s future. Despite the fact that Lebanese politicians have so far refrained from taking the step that would unleash chaos, the situation could spiral out of control.
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