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Global Terrorism and Nuclear Proliferation after 9/11 (ARI)

ARI 151/2011 - 21/11/2011

Robert S. Litwak

Arguably, the more likely route by which terrorists might gain access to nuclear or other WMD capabilities is not through the possible collaboration between ‘rogue states’ and terrorist groups but through theft from improperly-secured sites in countries like Pakistan.

Australian Jihad: Radicalisation and Counter-Terrorism (ARI)

ARI 140/2011 - 18/10/2011

Sam Mullins

‘Home-grown’ Islamist terrorism has developed in Australia in a comparable pattern to other Western countries. The Australian counter-terrorism strategy is similar to that in the UK, including the recent introduction of community-based preventive initiatives.

A Critical Assessment of the US National Strategy for Counterterrorism: A Missed Opportunity? (ARI)

ARI 128/2011 - 7/9/2011

Paul Smith

Neither the new 2011 US National Strategy for Counterterrorism, nor the recently published counter-radicalisation strategy provide a template upon which Federal, State and local law enforcement and civilian agencies could effectively plan the future US defence against terrorism. Has an opportunity been lost?

The Impact of the Arab Awakening on Muslim Radicalization in Europe: A Preliminary Assessment (ARI)

ARI 120/2011 - 14/7/2011

Lorenzo Vidino

While it is premature to draw conclusions, there are reasons to believe that the events of the Arab Awakening are not triggering a wave of radicalisation among European Muslims but might actually decrease it.

Current Moroccan Anti-Terrorism Policy (ARI)

ARI 89/2011 - 13/5/2011

Jack Kalpakian

Legal, social and religious reforms shape Morocco’s counter-terrorism. Though the policy has worked, in general, there have been reversals with human rights shortcomings and corruptions which affect these reforms. Returning to reform in counterterrorism should involve the Moroccan public.

Al-Qaeda’s Persistent Sanctuary (ARI)

ARI 67/2011 - 13/4/2011

Seth G. Jones

With growing instability across the Arab world, it has become de rigueur to argue that the primary al-Qaeda threat now comes from the Persian Gulf or North Africa. While these regions certainly present a threat to Western security, al-Qaeda’s primary command and control structure remains situated in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border regions.

Beyond Protection: In the Wake of the Moscow Domodedovo Airport Terrorist Attack (ARI)

ARI 19/2011 - 3/2/2011

Ekaterina Stepanova

The failure of counterintelligence to prevent and pre-emptively disrupt terrorist plans and networks is highlighted in this paper as the single most critical flaw highlighted by the Domodedovo attack and other recent terrorist incidents in Russia.

Alerts, alarms and threats: how much should the people of Europe be told? (ARI)

ARI 153/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2010

Fernando Reinares

A public awareness campaign about what al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups keep trying to do in Western Europe should neither raise alarm nor minimise the problem.

How the Terrorist Attacks of 2001 Have Signalled a Fundamental Change in the Nature of Conflict (ARI)

ARI 135/2010 - 14/9/2010

Sebastian L. v. Gorka

There are still fundamental questions to be answered on the nature of conflict post-9/11 and our existing understanding of war must be reassessed.

A New Composite Global Terrorism Threat to Western Societies from Pakistan? Making Sense of the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona (WP)

WP 28/2010 - 2/8/2010

Fernando Reinares

The actors behind the past twarthed attacks in the Spanish city denoted an intriguing combination which, indicative of the operational limitations faced by Al Qaeda and early manifestation of the Punjabi Taliban network, reflected an evolving terrorism threat to the West related with Pakistan.

Jihadism in Portugal: Grasping a Nebulous Reality (ARI)

ARI 113/2010 - 1/7/2010

Diogo Noivo

Although for the most part inconclusive, signs of possible Jihadist activity in Portugal suggest certain similarities with the risks present throughout Europe.

Al-Qaeda and Afghanistan in Strategic Context: Counterinsurgency versus Counterterrorism (WP)

WP 15/2010 - 17/5/2010

Sebastian L. v. Gorka

This paper discusses how the US failed to adequately identify the nature of the conflict it was embarking upon in response to the 9/11 attacks, our flawed understanding of the enemy and the fact that today we are just beginning to appreciate the central role of religious ideology in this war. Should we continue to misunderstand these three realities of the post-9/11 world, success in Afghanistan and Pakistan will not be achievable.

Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Vulnerability and Threat of Terrorism (WP)

WP 14/2010 - 16/4/2010

Anneli Botha

This working paper will provide an overview of the threats of terrorism associated with hosting a prominent sport event, while placing potential threats in context in South Africa; and an overview of preparations for the FIFA World Cup. Its aim is not to discourage visitors to come to South Africa, but rather to place the potential threat of terrorism in context.

Radicalisation in the Diaspora: Why Muslims in the West Attack Their Host Countries (WP)

WP 9/2010 - 15/3/2010

Peter K. Waldmann

While we now have a solid database on the processes of radicalisation of Muslims in the West, what we still lack is a theoretical framework that links the different pieces of empirical knowledge together. This working paper suggests that the diaspora concept could provide such a framework.

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