ISSN 1696-330X

WHAT IS THE BAROMETER OF THE ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE?

From the outset, the Elcano Royal Institute of International and Strategic Studies has paid special attention to Spain’s image across the globe, making it one of our special areas of strategic research. As part of this attention, we have set up what we call the OPIEX or Permanent Observatory of Spain’s Image Abroad. The flipside of this, if you pardon the expression, is an analysis of the Spanish public opinion on its foreign policy and international relations, including the image Spaniards have of other countries. 

To measure this latter variable, we designed the BRIE, Elcano Royal Institute Barometer. This is a periodic survey, carried out three times a year, in November, February and June, of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross section of the Spanish population. The difference between the BRIE and other surveys carried out in Spain from time to time, such as the Barometer of the Sociological Research Institute, is that the BRIE focuses exclusively on opinions, values and attitudes regarding international relations and Spanish foreign policy in all its aspects (defence policy, image of foreign countries, attitudes towards the European Union, perception of threats, possible conflicts, etc.).

The BRIE survey is structured in two primary modules. On one hand, we have a set of questions, which, in total or in part, are repeated in the three annual waves, that gives us a time series of a group of basic parameters. This is the ‘fixed’ part of the BRIE. But the core of the barometer is made up of the ‘variable’ part, comprising questions relating to current, up-to-the-minute affairs, which obviously have to change for each wave.

What follows is a guide to the design and results of the most recent wave, that of May 2005.

9^th Wave of the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute (June 2005)

Technical data

Universe

Spaniards of both sexes, 18 years of age and older.

Sample Area

National. All autonomous communities including Ceuta and Melilla.

Sample Size

1,209 interviews

Sample Structure

Stratified multi-stage. Proportional, according to the double criteria of size of the population of each autonomous community, with proportional quotas according to the age and sex of the population applied at the individual level.

Sample Error

±2.9% (1,200n) for global data, p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.

Interview Method

Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI system); call to home of interviewee.

Survey Period

Field work was carried out between June 11 and June 23.

Field Work

The study was carried out by TNS – Demoscopia.

Spaniards have a negative opinion of the results of the Referendums in France and Holland

56% have a negative opinion of the results of the referendums in France and Holland, compared with 35% who feel positive about them.

However, this opinion clearly depends on the political preferences of the interviewees. Among those who have a negative opinion:

• 65% voted for the PSOE in the general elections of March 2004.
• 53% voted for the PP.
• 31% voted for IU.

Spanish public opinion remains divided on whether the European Constitution will finally come into effect: 49% believe it will, while 43% think it will not.

In this climate of uncertainty, 56% feel that the state of the EU is bad, while 40% consider it good.

Negative, but not Catastrophic, Consequences

Looking more closely at the results of the referendums, an overwhelming majority (80%) do not agree that ‘the results of the French referendum make France less important to Spain’, while only 17% think this is true.

A significant majority (60%) disagree that this ‘diminishes France's leading role in the EU’, while 36% agree with this negative perspective.

Although France remains strong, 52% also agree that the current situation ‘is an opportunity for Spain to play a bigger role in the EU’.

The consequences are more negative for the Union as a whole, especially in comparison to the United States. While 54% agree that the results of the referendums ‘weaken Europe in relation to the United States’, 43% disagree with this statement.

We find greater division of opinion regarding the consequences for the European social model: while 46% agree that ‘it is strengthened’, 49% disagree with this.

This will not be Contagious

In light of the results of the referendum in France and Holland, only 15% say they ‘would change their vote if the referendum were held again in Spain tomorrow’, while 79% say they would not.

Of this 15% who would change their vote, half (52%) would now vote No. This means that there would be roughly a 7% increase in the No vote among the Spanish population as a whole.

As a result, most of those interviewed (54%) agree that ‘if the referendum were held again in Spain, the Yes side would still win’, although a significant percentage (35%) think this would not happen.

Slightly worse opinion of the Constitution

The study reveals that attitudes towards the Treaty have also changed slightly, at least if we compare them with those stated in the joint Barometer of the Sociological Research Centre (CIS) and the Elcano Royal Institute in November 2004. Interviewees both on the right and the left of the political spectrum, as well as nationalists, are now more critical of the Treaty.

While in the winter of 2004, only one out of four Spaniards (24%) thought that as a result of the Treaty ‘Spain is losing political weight in the EU’, 37% now think so.

‘As a result of the European Constitution Spain is losing political weight in the EU’

Source: ‘Opinions and attitudes of Spaniards on the Constitution Treaty and the process of European integration’, CIS/RIE, December 2004; and Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute, 9^th wave, June 2005.

Now nearly one out of two Spaniards (46%) believes that ‘the European Constitution enshrines an economic Europe and does not recognise the social Europe’, compared with 27% who agreed with this statement last November.

‘The European Constitution enshrines an economic Europe and does not recognise the social Europe’

Source: ‘Opinions and attitudes of Spaniards on the Constitution Treaty and the process of European integration’, CIS/RIE, December 2004; and Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute, 9^th wave, June 2005.

Among nationalists, there was also a 31% increase in those who felt that the Treaty ‘does not recognise the identity of the peoples of Europe’, up from 20% in the winter of 2004.

‘The European Constitution does not recognise the identity of the peoples of Europe’

Source: ‘Opinions and attitudes of Spaniards on the Constitution Treaty and the process of European integration’, CIS/RIE, December 2004; and Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute, 9^th wave, June 2005.

Of the three critical arguments, the one that is gaining most in strength involves the ‘economic Europe’ which, as we know, was one the main points of debate in the French referendum campaign.

However, a majority (67%) still feel that the Treaty ‘is a step forward in the process of European integration’, although this percentage has dropped by ten points since November 2004.

‘The European Constitution is a step forward in the process of European integration’

Source: ‘Opinions and attitudes of Spaniards on the Constitution Treaty and the process of European integration’, CIS/RIE, December 2004; and Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute, 9ªh wave, June 2005.

Pessimism regarding the financial Perspective for Spain, but Solidarity towards the new Member Countries

73% believe that ‘Spain will end up being harmed by the negotiations for the distribution of EU funds in the coming years’, compared with only 19% who think the country will benefit from them.

But almost all Spaniards (85%) also agree that their country ‘must show solidarity with the new European member countries that need EU funds’.

The argument of solidarity is the one that is most convincing to Spaniards, 60% of whom reject the idea that ‘no longer receiving aid is good because it means we have reached a certain level of prosperity’ or that ‘it allows us to deal on equal terms with the most powerful EU countries’ (an argument rejected by 68%).

Spaniards perceive an enormous distance between the Government and the opposition on Foreign Policy

Spaniards believe that there is now an insurmountable gap between the two main political parties, the PP and the PSOE, which disagree on all seven issues covered by the Barometer: anti-terrorist policy, pensions and social security, defence and the armed forces, education, the organisation of the state and the reform of the autonomous communities, foreign policy and immigration.

There is considered to be a higher degree of agreement on pensions and social security, although 60% think the main political parties do not agree. By contrast, the issue on which the divide is greatest is the organisation of the state and the reform of the autonomous communities, where 86% feel that there is no agreement.

On international issues, the least disagreement is perceived on defence and the armed forces (67%) and the most on foreign policy (86%).

And in these two areas, more specifically, Spaniards feel the gap is widest on the issue of relations with the United States (86% say that the PP and the PSOE disagree) and on the policy towards Cuba (83%), while it is narrowest on EU issues and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (61% think that the PSOE and the PP disagree on these issues).

Limited Foreign Policy Powers for the Autonomous Communities

27% of Spaniards think that ‘the autonomous communities should have foreign policy powers’, while 69% hold the contrary opinion.

Predictably, this proportion rises among those who vote for nationalist parties: 70% among PNV voters and 45% among CiU voters. The figure is also high among those who vote for IU (40%), far above PSOE voters (24%) and PP voters (18%).

Among those who agree that the autonomous communities should have foreign policy powers, almost all (85%) feel it is a priority that they ‘represent themselves in the EU’ or that they have ‘their own cultural institutes to promote their language or culture’. Among those who favour these powers, about half (49.4%) consider it ‘very important’ for autonomous communities to have the opportunity to spread their cultures abroad.

By contrast, it is less important to have ‘sports teams in international competitions’ (65%).