ISSN 1696-330X

WHAT IS THE BAROMETER OF THE ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE?

From the outset, the Elcano Royal Institute of International and Strategic Studies has paid special attention to Spain’s image across the globe, making it one of our special areas of strategic research. As part of this attention, we have set up what we call the OPIEX or Permanent Observatory of Spain’s Image Abroad. The flipside of this, if you pardon the expression, is an analysis of the Spanish public opinion on its foreign policy and international relations, including the image Spaniards have of other countries. 

To measure this latter variable, we designed the BRIE, Elcano Royal Institute Barometer. This is a periodic survey, carried out three times a year, in November, February and June, of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross section of the Spanish population. The difference between the BRIE and other surveys carried out in Spain from time to time, such as the Barometer of the Sociological Research Institute, is that the BRIE focuses exclusively on opinions, values and attitudes regarding international relations and Spanish foreign policy in all its aspects (defence policy, image of foreign countries, attitudes towards the European Union, perception of threats, possible conflicts, etc.).

The BRIE survey is structured in two primary modules. On one hand, we have a set of questions, which, in total or in part, are repeated in the three annual waves, that gives us a time series of a group of basic parameters. This is the ‘fixed’ part of the BRIE. But the core of the barometer is made up of the ‘variable’ part, comprising questions relating to current, up-to-the-minute affairs, which obviously have to change for each wave.

What follows is a guide to the design and results of the most recent wave, that of February 2005.

Results of the 8th Wave of the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute (BRIE)

63% of Spaniards believe the international situation is bad, compared with 29% who think it is good. However, pessimism appears to be waning. This is revealed by the 8th wave of the Elcano Royal Institute's Barometer (BRIE), which was presented to the media on March 14. BRIE is a periodic survey, carried out three times a year, in November, February and June, of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross section of the Spanish population.

Technical data

·         Universe: individuals of both sexes, 18 years of age and older.

·         Sample area: national, including Ceuta and Melilla.

·         Sample size: N = 1,200 individuals.

·         Interview method: computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI); call to home of interviewee.

·         Sample structure: stratified multi-stage. Stratified in proportion to the size of the population of each Autonomous Community, with proportional quotas according to the age and sex of the population.

·         Sample error: ±2.9% (1,200n) for global data, p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.

·         Date of field work: February 22 to March 3, 2005.

·         Field work: TNS-Demoscopia.

 

63% of Spaniards believe the international situation is bad, compared with 29% who think it is good. However, pessimism appears to be waning. This is indicated by the change in the result of subtracting negative opinions from positive ones. Compared to May 2004, when the 3/11 terrorist attacks in Madrid brought the BRIE index to its lowest level ever (-66), the result is now -35, similar to the figure in the lead-up to the war in Iraq in the winter of 2002, when the first sample was taken.

Compared to a year ago, 49% of respondents feel that ‘Spanish-Moroccan relations’ have improved. Also, 42% feel that ‘Spain’s power in the EU’ remains unchanged –not far off the 36% who think that it has increased, and significantly higher than the 20% who feel it has diminished– except among PP voters, 42% of whom hold this opinion.

It is also significant that 74% of respondents think that the ‘Gibraltar dispute’ remains unchanged, despite the new stage in bilateral negotiations. Undoubtedly, the recent episode of a Royal Navy nuclear submarine anchoring in Gibraltar has helped feed this sceptical attitude.

Among the things that have worsened since 2004 are ‘Spanish-US relations’ (61%) and illegal immigration to Spain (55%).

As for expectations for 2005: optimism reigns. Spain’s power will remain the same (44%) or will increase (42%). Only 12% believe it will diminish.

Meanwhile, 47% believe that Spanish-Moroccan relations will remain the same and 43% think they will improve.

A majority believe that relations with the United States will either remain the same (46%) or will improve (36%).

Clearly, no change is expected in the Gibraltar dispute: three quarters (75%) of respondents expect things to stay the same.

Pessimism is strong regarding illegal immigration: 39% think it will worsen, while 37% expect it to remain as bad as it is now.

Therefore, an increase in illegal immigration is seen in a very negative light by Spaniards. One of the factors that undoubtedly feeds pessimism on this issue is the Spanish perception of the Moroccan attitude: 92% feel that Morocco ‘does not do enough to fight illegal immigration to Spain from within its own borders’.

This, combined with the majority opinion on the Sahara conflict (60% in favour of ‘the independence of the Saharan people’, vs 20% who support ‘significant autonomy under Moroccan rule’), suggests that Spaniards see large storm clouds on the horizon in Spain’s relations with its Maghrebi neighbours.

The most consistent issue is the Gibraltar dispute, suggesting a certain resignation in this regard.

	Compared with 2004	Prospects for 2005
Spain’s power in the EU	Same/greater	Same/greater
Spanish-US relations	Worse	Same
Illegal immigration	Worse	Worse/same
Spanish-Moroccan relations	Better	Same/greater
Gibraltar dispute	Same	Same

In the same regard, when asked about the likelihood of certain events occurring in 2005, only 15% thought that a ‘solution to the Gibraltar dispute’ was probable. However, at the international level, 47% thought that ‘a US attack on Iran’ was possible and 60% said that ‘a reconciliation between the United States and Europe after the Iraq War’ was likely.

2. THE UNITED STATES AND TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS

Looking more closely at transatlantic relations and how these have changed since George Bush’s victory at the polls, more than two thirds of Spaniards (68%) feel his re-election ‘is negative for peace and security in the world’, compared with only 17% who feel it is positive.

Spain is not alone in this feeling. There is general consensus on this in the world, except in the United States, Poland (the exception in Europe) and in India and the Philippines (the exceptions in Asia). However, Spain’s negative feeling on this issue is 10 points above the world average.

		Positive	Negative	Neither Positive nor Negative	Don’t Know/ No Answer
	Spain	17	68	9	6
	France	13	75	4	7
	Germany	14	77	8	2
	UK	29	64	4	4
	Italy	34	54	3	9
	Poland	44	27	7	23
	Russia	16	39	32	13
	Argentina	8	79	4	9
	Brazil	17	78	3	2
	Chile	19	62	6	13
	Mexico	4	58	28	10
	Australia	31	61	5	3
	China	27	56	5	12
	India	62	27	2	8
	Indonesia	21	68	5	6
	Japan	15	39	31	15
	Philippines	63	30	2	5
	South Korea	36	54	7	3
	US	56	39	1	4
	Canada	26	67	2	5
	Turkey	6	82	6	7
	Lebanon	23	64	9	4
	South Africa	35	57	3	5
Average (*)		27	57	8	8

(*) The average does not include Spain.

Source: GlobeScan-December 2004 and BRIE8.

Bush’s re-election has tarnished the image of the United States in general. Forty-three percent (43%) of Spaniards say that, as a result, their ‘feelings towards the American people are more negative’, compared with 15% who say they are more positive.

As in the previous question, the Spanish response is similar to that heard in other countries.

		Positive	Negative	Neither Positive nor Negative	Don’t Know/ No Answer
	Spain	15	43	37	4
	France	12	65	19	4
	Germany	12	56	31	1
	UK	26	48	25	2
	Italy	22	39	36	3
	Poland	22	11	56	11
	Russia	6	19	71	5
	Argentina	13	54	18	16
	Brazil	28	59	10	3
	Chile	16	40	27	16
	Mexico	14	49	24	13
	Australia	20	35	44	1
	China	32	33	29	7
	India	65	21	6	8
	Indonesia	28	55	12	6
	Japan	8	23	62	8
	Philippines	78	15	4	3
	South Korea	32	47	19	2
	US	55	35	7	3
	Canada	25	53	19	3
	Turkey	9	72	11	8
	Lebanon	21	42	33	5
	South Africa	38	45	12	5
Average (*)		27	42	26	6

(*) The average does not include Spain.

Source: GlobeScan – December 2004, and BRIE-8.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Spaniards are ‘in favour of Bush’s goal of promoting democracy in the world’ but, at the same time, 72% feel that the US is not sincere.

Among this majority of Spaniards who mistrust US intentions:

• 96% are distrustful because they believe that the real US objective is to control the oil in the Middle East.
• 76% think the US wants to dominate the world.
• 68% believe that the US wants to attack Muslim countries.

In any case, Spaniards do not see Bush’s goal as realistic. The idea that ‘Arab countries will someday be democratic’ seems impossible to 71%.

As for transatlantic relations, distrust of the US leads 47% to want the EU to have ‘a more independent security and diplomatic policy’, although a significant percentage (36%) defend ‘closer relations between the US and the EU’. This demonstrates the rupture in the consensus on foreign policy, since EU autonomy is more important to most Socialist (PSOE) voters (53%) and Izquierda Unida (IU) voters (76%), than to Partido Popular (PP) voters (23%).

Asked ‘what the United States could do to improve its relations with European countries’, Spaniards indicated that the most important thing would be to use more diplomacy and not make immediate use of military force (45%). Secondly, the US could ‘listen more to its allies’ and ‘work more in international organisations like the UN’, according to 25% of respondents in both cases.

Public opinion in Germany and France also reflects this vision, but of the three countries it seems that the French public is the one that insists most on an equal partnership with the US, while Germans and Spanish would be content with more multilateralism and less belligerence on the part of the United States.

(%)	France	Germany	Spain
Listen more to allies	35	30	25
Work more in international organizations like the UN	23	22	26
Use more diplomacy and make less use of military force	37	43	45
DK/NA	4	5	4
	100	100	100

Source: GMF-2004 and BRIE-8.

Asked ‘what Spain could to improve its relations with the United States’, Spaniards replied that the first thing would be to ‘change policies to align stances with the United States’ (36%) and ‘cooperate in European defence so that the United States does not bear all the weight of military action’ (32%). Only 16% said ‘send troops to contribute to reconstruction and security in Iraq’.

Comparatively, the French appear most in favour of a European superpower; the Germans, of sending troops; and Spaniards of aligning policies in other areas.

(%)	France	Germany	Spain
Send troops to contribute to reconstruction and security in Iraq	19	29	16
Cooperate in European defence so that the US does not bear the entire weight of military action	48	20	32
change policies to align stances with the US	18	22	36
DK/NA	10	28	15
	100	100	100

Source: GMF-2004 and BRIE-8.

The re-election has not affected the Spanish opinion of sending troops to Iraq: 78% remain against it (only 15% are now more against it than before).

		Against	In Favour	DK/NA
	Spain	78	17	5
	France	84	9	6
	Germany	83	10	7
	UK	63	31	6
	Italy	65	28	7
	Poland	60	21	18
	Russia	89	2	9
	Argentina	84	3	13
	Brazil	82	12	7
	Chile	68	9	23
	Mexico	75	0	25
	Australia	56	37	6
	China	66	19	15
	India	67	18	15
	Indonesia	74	14	12
	Japan	35	11	54
	Philippines	58	36	5
	South Korea	56	34	9
	USA	43	54	4
	Canada	76	20	4
	Turkey	88	6	6
	Lebanon	75	9	16
	South Africa	63	28	9
Average (*)		69	19	13

(*) The average does not include Spain.

Source: GlobeScan-December 2004 and BRIE8

3. PESSIMISM ON IRAQ

In line with the results discussed above, although there is strong support for the presence of Spanish troops in Indonesia (64%), Haiti (61%) and Afghanistan (53%), three quarters of respondents (75%) reject sending troops to Iraq.

However, the Spanish government’s offer to train Iraqi police in Spain is viewed positively: 60% believe it is good for stability in Iraq and also for Spanish-US relations.

For 87% of respondents, the situation in Iraq is bad or very bad. Pessimism reigns, given that 38% think that things will remain the same and 20% believe they will get worse. Only 38% think things will improve.

At the same time, a majority of 62% believe that elections ‘will not contribute to the stability of the country’, compared with 30% who think they will. On this point, there is consensus among the voters of different parties.

However, 41% agree that the elections in Iraq have been a success for the administration, while another 41% disagree, and here again, there are clear differences between PP voters and PSOE voters: 52% of the former agree, compared with only 37% of the latter.

Despite their rejection of the US occupation, Spaniards feel that an immediate withdrawal of US troops could have negative consequences for the country, such as a civil war (59%, vs 30% who do not think so) or a radical Islamist government (50%, vs 36% who disagree).

Despite this, respondents generally feel this would have positive effects at the global level. Half (50%) think that it would bring ‘peace in the Middle East’, compared with 41% who disagree; or ‘a reduction in international terrorism in the world’ (46% vs 45% who disagree).

4. 3/11 AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

What do Spaniards see as the greatest threat to Spain? ETA and Islamic terrorism equally, since each received 30%, while 39% responded ‘both’.

Perceptions have changed since the spring of 2004 when, still under the effects of the March 11 attacks, 45% said international terrorism and only 15% said ETA.

In any case, there is still a widespread sense of threat. Half (48%) feel that there will likely be another international terrorist attack in Spain, similar to the 44% who said the same in the spring of 2004.

The perception of the causes of the 3/11 attacks also remains unchanged. Nearly two-thirds (63%) believe that ‘if Spain had not supported the United States in the Iraq war, the March 11 terrorist attack would not have happened’, while 31% think it would have happened anyway. These percentages are similar to those obtained in the spring of 2004 and the ideological polarisation is also similar, with differences in opinion determined by party preferences: 76% of Socialist voters think it would not have happened –nearly double the number of PP who agree with this–.

However, a majority of Spaniards (56%) also think that ‘the terrorists were trying to influence the results of the March 14 election with the 3/11 attack’, compared with 38% who do not agree.

Opinion is once again polarised according to political sympathies. A majority of PP voters (82%) agree, as do IU voters to a lesser extent (55%), but not PSOE voters (40%).

In the end, PSOE voters think that the cause is to be found in Iraq and that there was no attempt to turn around the election, while PP voters think that 3/11 had nothing to do with Iraq, but that there was an attempt to influence the electoral result.

Neither has there been significant change in the assessment of the deeper causes of terrorism, compared to a few months ago: 63% attribute it to religious fanaticism –similar to the 59% who thought so in May 2004–.

Nonetheless, there are appreciable changes in the idea of how to fight terrorism. Development aid has taken on a higher priority, rising from 43% to 54%, while the importance of controlling immigrants and monitoring mosques has dropped from 34% to 22%.

As a result, 51% feel that ‘Prime Minister Rodríguez Zapatero’s proposal of an Alliance of Civilisations could help end international terrorism’, although 38% say they are not convinced of this. PP voters are those who question this strategy the most: 31% support it, compared with 67% of PSOE voters.

Although there was greater rejection of Moroccans in the aftermath of 3/11, tempers have cooled since then. For example, the percentage of Spaniards who would expel Moroccans from Spain has dropped from about 20% to 10%. And at a more personal level, rejection of the idea of marrying a Moroccan has dropped from 52% to 42%.

(%)	1996	2004	2005
Would not marry	39	52	42
Would not have friends	16	13	9
Would not want neighbours	13	16	12
Would not want as co-workers	10	12	9
Would not speak to	7	13	4
Would expel	7	19	12

Source: IUOG for 1996 and BRIE for 2004 and 2005.

5. EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION

Only 11% say they have consulted the Treaty directly. Most (41%) informed themselves about the European Constitution via TV, followed by the press (17%), radio (7%) and the Internet (4%). As for the election campaign, 70% expressed little interest.

Most (55%) say they were satisfied with the result of the referendum, compared with 35% who say they were dissatisfied.

Of course, satisfaction was higher among PSOE voters (72%) and PP voters (49%), than among IU voters (35%).

However, 73% believe it will have a positive effect on the ratification of the Treaty in other countries.

This view is shared, regardless of party preferences.

MASS MEDIA

The majority (55%) say that they follow international politics with interest, though an alarming 42% also say they have no interest.

In general, the respondents reveal moderate satisfaction with the information on international issues provided by the Spanish mass media, which they consider good or very good –as high as 62% for EU issues, or 50% for 3/11 and the war in Iraq–.

Satisfaction is lower (under 50%) regarding Spanish foreign policy and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict (42%) and immigration (39%). Spaniards appear to want more and better information on these issues.