Barometer of the Royal Institute
ISSN 1696-330X
WHAT IS THE BAROMETER OF THE ELCANO
ROYAL INSTITUTE?
From the outset, the Elcano Royal Institute of International and Strategic
Studies has paid special attention to Spain’s image across the globe, making
it one of our special areas of strategic research. As part of this attention,
we have set up what we call the OPIEX or Permanent Observatory of Spain’s
Image Abroad. The flipside of this, if you pardon the expression, is an analysis
of the Spanish public opinion on its foreign policy and international relations,
including the image Spaniards have of other countries.
To measure this latter variable, we designed the BRIE, Elcano Royal Institute
Barometer. This is a periodic survey, carried out three times a year, in November,
February and June, of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross section
of the Spanish population. The difference between the BRIE and other surveys
carried out in Spain from time to time, such as the Barometer of the Sociological
Research Institute, is that the BRIE focuses exclusively on opinions, values
and attitudes regarding international relations and Spanish foreign policy
in all its aspects (defence policy, image of foreign countries, attitudes
towards the European Union, perception of threats, possible conflicts, etc.).
The BRIE survey is structured in two primary modules. On one hand, we have
a set of questions, which, in total or in part, are repeated in the three
annual waves, that gives us a time series of a group of basic parameters.
This is the ‘fixed’ part of the BRIE. But the core of the barometer is made
up of the ‘variable’ part, comprising questions relating to current, up-to-the-minute
affairs, which obviously have to change for each wave.
What follows is a guide to the design and results of the most recent wave, that of May.
6TH WAVE, MAY 2004
PRESS SUMMARY
Technical data
·
Universe: Spanish population over 18 years of age.
·
Size of sample: N = 1,219 individuals.
·
Interview: By telephone (to the respondents’ own homes).
·
Sample: Stratified directly in proportion to the distribution of Spain’s
population, with proportional quotas according to sex and age.
·
Deviation: ±2.9% (1.200n) for global data, p = q = 0.5 and a confidence
interval of 95.5%.
·
Date of sample: Monday, May 10, to Tuesday, May 18, 2004.
·
Field work: Instituto INTERGALLUP S.A., member of THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION.
1. THE US AND THE FIGHT AGAINST INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
65% say they are against the strategy the US is
using to fight international terrorism, while 30% agree with it.
This level of support is the lowest among the
European countries included in the March survey by the Pew Global Attitudes
Project, despite the March 11 attacks. Opposition in Spain is similar
to levels in Morocco and Pakistan.
| (%) |
For |
Against |
DK/DA |
|
| US |
81 |
13 |
6 |
100 |
| UK |
63 |
30 |
7 |
100 |
| France |
50 |
47 |
3 |
100 |
| Germany |
55 |
43 |
2 |
100 |
| Russia |
73 |
20 |
7 |
100 |
| Turkey |
37 |
56 |
7 |
100 |
| Pakistan |
16 |
60 |
25 |
100 |
| Jordan |
12 |
78 |
10 |
100 |
| Morocco |
28 |
66 |
6 |
100 |
| Spain |
30 |
65 |
5 |
100 |
Source: PGAP and BRIE.
Also, in Spain a slightly higher percentage, 75%,
feel that the US is not sincere in its fight against terrorism. Distrust of
the US government in Spain is even greater than in Muslim countries, where
it is at its highest.
| (%) |
Sincere |
Not
Sincere |
Both |
DK/DA |
|
| US |
67 |
25 |
2 |
6 |
100 |
| UK |
51 |
41 |
3 |
5 |
100 |
| France |
35 |
61 |
2 |
2 |
100 |
| Germany |
29 |
65 |
1 |
5 |
100 |
| Russia |
35 |
48 |
9 |
8 |
100 |
| Turkey |
20 |
64 |
7 |
10 |
100 |
| Pakistan |
6 |
58 |
5 |
31 |
100 |
| Jordan |
11 |
51 |
24 |
14 |
100 |
| Morocco |
17 |
66 |
4 |
13 |
100 |
| Spain |
18 |
75 |
0 |
7 |
100 |
Source: PGAP and BRIE.
For 67% of interviewees, the
US seeks only to control the oil in the Near East. Meanwhile, 54% believe
the implicit goal of the war against terrorism is to dominate the world.
This mindset, combined with the news on the abuse
of Iraqi prisoners in the Abu Ghraib prison, has understandably led to enormous
erosion of the US’s image. On a scale of 0 to 10, it received a score of 3.9,
compared with 5 as reported in the first wave of the Barometer (November 2002),
putting it at the same level as Algeria and Saudi Arabia.
Finally, 83% of Spanish people believe the war
in Iraq has been counterproductive in the fight against terrorism. Among all
the countries included in the PGAP, Spain is again the most critical of the
US government, easily surpassing the 67% reported in Morocco.
| (%) |
Positive |
Neither
Positive nor Negative |
Negative |
DK/DA |
|
| US |
62 |
3 |
28 |
7 |
100 |
| UK |
36 |
5 |
50 |
8 |
100 |
| France |
33 |
10 |
55 |
2 |
100 |
| Germany |
30 |
5 |
58 |
7 |
100 |
| Russia |
22 |
18 |
50 |
10 |
100 |
| Turkey |
24 |
8 |
56 |
12 |
100 |
| Pakistan |
8 |
6 |
57 |
29 |
100 |
| Jordan |
12 |
37 |
36 |
15 |
100 |
| Morocco |
16 |
8 |
67 |
9 |
100 |
| Spain |
8 |
4 |
83 |
4 |
100 |
Source: PGAP and BRIE.
2. SUPPORT FOR THE WITHDRAWAL OF SPANISH TROOPS FROM IRAQ
As a result of the above, most Spaniards (78%)
agree with the Spanish government’s decision to withdraw its troops from Iraq:
48% agree very strongly and 30% simply agree. Only 19% disagree.
However, only 58% agree that the decision was
made at the right time. Nearly 40% consider it to have been made hastily.
Regarding the consequences of withdrawing the
troops:
- 73% believe it will harm relations
with the US, while 20% believe it will not.
- 72% feel that it will improve
relations with France and Germany, compared with 20% who feel it will not.
- 57% think it will improve relations
with Arab countries, while 32% think it will make them worse.
- The majority (54%) do not believe
that by withdrawing the troops Spain’s prestige will suffer abroad, compared
with 38% who agree.
- 49% think that it reduces the
risk of Spain suffering a terrorist attack, compared with 43% who disagree.
As for the future, 50% would agree with Spanish
troops returning to Iraq if the UN sanctions a multinational force there,
while 42% disagree with this.
3. CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF 3-11
The majority (64%) think that the 3-11 terrorist
attack would not have happened if Spain had not supported the US in Iraq,
while 23% do not believe this.
On the same subject, 60% feel that 3-11 was the
result of Spain’s international policy.
Other reactions to 3-11 were:
(1) 93% felt rage and
indignation that someone could commit an act of this kind.
(2) 80% worried about
security.
(3) 63% worried that
the attack could affect the political situation in Spain.
(4) 45% feared that the
attack could affect our relations with other countries.
(5) Finally, only 20%
were concerned that these events could affect their jobs, etc.
Among the causes of Islamist terrorism mentioned
were:
(1) Religious fanaticism
(59%).
(2) Opposition to US
foreign policy (24%).
(3) Poverty and social
exclusion in Arabic countries (24%).
(4) Hatred of the West
and its values (21%).
(5) Dictatorships in
Arabic countries (16%).
Proposed solutions to international terrorism:
(1) Development aid and
cooperation with Arabic countries (43%).
(2) Control of immigrants
and mosques (34%).
(3) Integration of immigrants
into Spanish society (18%).
(4) More police and security
(17%).
(5) Limiting Muslim immigration
(15%).
(6) War against countries
that foment terrorism (4%).
When asked what the greatest threat to Spain is
now, 45% replied that it is international terrorism, 15% said ETA terrorism
and 38% said both.
Regarding the future, 44% think another attack
on Spanish territory is likely, while a similar percentage (46%) do not think
so.
4. THE IMAGE OF ISLAM AND MOROCCO
The identification of Islamist terrorism with
religious fanaticism has led to a negative attitude toward Islam, which is
the lowest rated religion.
Subtracting unfavourable opinions from favourable
ones, the resulting ranking is:
(1) Catholicism: 55%.
(2) Buddhism: 25%.
(3) Protestantism: 12%.
(4) Atheism: 10%.
(5) Islam: -12%.
In reference to Muslims:
- 82% associate the adjective ‘religious’,
compared with 13% who associate ‘atheist’.
- 80% ‘authoritarian’, compared
with 13% ‘democratic’.
- 62% ‘strong’, compared with 31%
‘weak’.
- 57% ‘violent’, compared with 34%
‘peaceful’.
Despite the connection of Moroccan citizens with
3-11, although there is greater rejection of this group, it does not extend
to most of the population:
- Between 1996 and 2004 the percentage
of Spaniards who would expel Moroccans trebled from 7% to 19%.
- The percentage of people who would
not marry a Moroccan increased from 39% to 52%.
Neither has Morocco’s image worsened. As in winter
2002 (according to the results of the Barometer), the country received a rating
of approximately 3.5 points on a scale of 0 to 10. In any case, after Israel,
with 3.1, the lowest rated countries are mostly Muslim: Iran (3.2), followed
by Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Libya (3.7).
5. SELFLESS INTERNATIONALISM
Although there has been speculation that the 3-11
attack could cause the Spanish to withdraw from an active foreign policy,
74% support an active role for Spain in international politics.
Also, this percentage has not varied since the
winter of 2003, when it stood at 72% according to the results of the 4th
BRIE.
Spaniards see internationalism more in humanitarian
and cosmopolitan terms than in terms of realism or national interest. They
see it as a question of contributing to the development of poor countries
and alleviating humanitarian crises, rather than defending exclusively Spanish
interests. Although there is also a feeling that we should have power in the
EU, there is no desire to be a superpower. The ranking of preferences on Spanish
action abroad (on a scale of 1 to 4) is:
(1) Development aid for
third world countries: 3.5
(2) Sending humanitarian
aid in cases of crisis: 3.5
(3) Having more power
in the EU: 3
(4) Having greater presence
in international bodies: 2.9
(5) Entering the G-8:
2.7
(6) Diplomatic mediation
in the Near East: 2.5
(7) Exerting influence
to favour Spanish interests: 2.5
(8) Being a superpower:
2
As we can see, these preferences are coherent
with the solution proposed for international terrorism, which is also based
on cooperation and development aid.
Finally, it must be emphasized that Spain’s perceived
power, rather than dropping, has actually climbed a full point to 5.9 on a
scale of 0 to 10. In May 2003 (3rd wave of the BRIE) it stood at
4.9. It is possible that the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and the resulting
distancing from the US might have strengthened a sense of autonomy and independent
decision-making.
6. EUROPEANISM…
As a result of the selfless internationalism discussed
above, 51% of those interviewed believe that specifically within the EU, ‘for
Spain, the essential thing is to make headway with the European Union, even
if sometimes it is necessary to lose some power or some benefits to our country’.
This contrasts with the 41% who agree that ‘for Spain, the essential thing
is to defend its interests in Europe, even if there are conflicts with other
countries’.
44% believe that ‘in the long term, the member
states in the Union will cooperate on a larger number of actions and policies
(defence, economy, etc.)’ while 41% feel that ‘there will be groups of states
cooperating in certain areas but not in others’. Compared with February, there
is a sense of greater optimism, as was mentioned earlier. A few months ago,
only 33% subscribed to the scenario of unity.
Federalists (45%) and inter-governmentalists (43%)
are evenly divided. It should be kept in mind that the February Barometer
reported inter-governmentalists at 76%. Since this latest poll took a slightly
different form, we cannot precisely determine if this growth in federalism
is real or is the product of different ways of measurement.
Where undeniable consensus exists is in the political
design of the Union. Only 21% defend the need for a ‘directoire’, while the
majority (73%) support equality. Although the wording of the question is slightly
different than in February, the results are very similar (12% and 80%). Nonetheless,
the new wording reduces the degree of polarization.
Finally, there is a perceptible
return to Europe. Asked which country is Spain’s best friend, 28.5% of Spaniards
now think it is France. Germany and the US are the next best friends, chosen
by approximately 15% of Spaniards. Between February and May a significant
change took place in the perception of alliances:
- The US fell from 42% to 16%.
- France rose from 12% to 28%, and
Germany rose from 5 to 15%.
As for the limits of the EU, the vision is an
inclusive one. 62% think that Russia should be a member of the EU and 56%
think that Turkey should also be included.
7. EURO-OPTIMISM
The majority (58%) now believe it is likely that
the governments in the EU will manage to reach an agreement to create a European
Constitution this year, in 2004, while 36% do not think this will be the case.
Spaniards are now more optimistic than a few months
ago. 39% thought this was possible in February. This means there has been
an increase of nearly 20%.
Regarding voting intentions in a hypothetical
referendum on the European Constitution:
- 68% are in favour.
- 3% are against.
- 6% would spoil their ballot.
- 8% would abstain.
It should be noted that there was also a 6% increase
in the percentage of votes in favour, compared with the last BRIE poll in
February of this year, when it stood at 62%.
60% express interest in the European elections
in June, compared with 39% who do not.
Compared with February, interest is also higher
in this respect, with a 12-point increase from the 48% reported in the 5th
BRIE.
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