Barometer of the Royal Institute

ISSN 1696-330X

WHAT IS THE BAROMETER OF THE ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE?

From the outset, the Elcano Royal Institute of International and Strategic Studies has paid special attention to Spain’s image across the globe, making it one of our special areas of strategic research. As part of this attention, we have set up what we call the OPIEX or Permanent Observatory of Spain’s Image Abroad. The flipside of this, if you pardon the expression, is an analysis of the Spanish public opinion on its foreign policy and international relations, including the image Spaniards have of other countries. 

To measure this latter variable, we designed the BRIE, Elcano Royal Institute Barometer. This is a periodic survey, carried out three times a year, in November, February and June, of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross section of the Spanish population. The difference between the BRIE and other surveys carried out in Spain from time to time, such as the Barometer of the Sociological Research Institute, is that the BRIE focuses exclusively on opinions, values and attitudes regarding international relations and Spanish foreign policy in all its aspects (defence policy, image of foreign countries, attitudes towards the European Union, perception of threats, possible conflicts, etc.).

The BRIE survey is structured in two primary modules. On one hand, we have a set of questions, which, in total or in part, are repeated in the three annual waves, that gives us a time series of a group of basic parameters. This is the ‘fixed’ part of the BRIE. But the core of the barometer is made up of the ‘variable’ part, comprising questions relating to current, up-to-the-minute affairs, which obviously have to change for each wave.

What follows is a guide to the design and results of the most recent wave, that of February.

THE FIFTH WAVE OF THE BRIE (FEBRUARY 2004)

Technical data

·     Universe: Spanish population over 18 years of age.

·     Size of sample: 1,211n (individuals).

·     Interviews: By telephone (to the respondents’ own homes)

·     Sample: Stratified directly in proportion to the distribution of Spain’s population,  with proportional quotas according to sex and age.

·Deviation: ±2.9% (1,200n) for global data, p = q = 0.5, and a confidence interval of 95.5%.

·     Date of sample: Wednesday 17 February to Thursday 26 February, 2004.

·     Fieldwork: Gallup Institute

1. INCREASINGLY PRO-EUROPEAN

• Spaniards are still strongly pro-European, a feeling which has steadily consolidated since the 1990s. Whereas ten years ago the percentage of Spaniards having a favourable opinion of Europe was 60%, the figure now stands at 81%.

• And, naturally, the majority, 75%, also think that Spain benefits from its membership of the EU.

• Nevertheless, one out of every two Spaniards (49%) thinks that the euro works against Spanish interests, in contrast to the positive expectations people had when the common currency was first introduced. In May 1997, only 20% thought that the effect would be negative; today the number is over twice that.

2. EUROPESSIMISM IS ALSO ON THE RISE

• However, while pro-Europeanism is on the increase, so too is pessimism about the political future of the EU. This is not necessarily a contradiction, since what appears to worry Spaniards is that there is ‘not enough’ Europe.

• The net result is that it is widely believed that Europe will follow a ‘variable geometry’ model. Only 33% believe that there will be full cooperation between member countries in the long term. 50% consider that there will be groups of countries cooperating in some areas, but not in others.

3. BUT WHAT SORT OF EUROPE DO SPANIARDS WANT?

Without a doubt the most interesting aspect of this fifth wave of our Barometer is that it allows us to gain a closer understanding of what sort of Europe Spaniards want:

1. Intergovernmental, more than federal:

No less than 76% believe that, ‘in the future, each State should retain its sovereignty’. Only 18.2% favour ‘a United State of Europe with a single government for all member countries’. 76% is a solid majority, which seems to rebut the general impression and which should be studied in more detail in the future.

It is also interesting to note that only 6% have no opinion on the subject.

As for how these attitudes will evolve, it is noticeable that the pro-intergovernmental view is more widespread among younger than older Spaniards: 80% to 65%.

On the other hand, this view is less popular among the voters of regionalist parties. The average for this group is 57%. This lower register is most probably due to the fact that power would still be in the hands of central governments.

2. A Europe which cooperates with the US rather than a superpower in competition with the US:

Although 61% believe that Europe is more important than the US as regards Spain’s interests, 30% say that both the US and Europe are equally important. These figures are similar to those reported in the autumn and therefore confirm the existence of a significant number in favour of the transatlantic connexion.

In any case, the majority, 61%, prefer a strong Europe that cooperates, rather than competes or rivals, with the US. Only 32.5% say that Europe ‘should be a superpower capable of acting as a counterweight to the US.’ And, again, only 7% has no opinion on the subject.

Views on this subject are largely dictated by interviewees’ political views. Those who consider themselves left wing, particularly PSOE voters, tend to favour the idea of a European counterweight: 41%, as opposed to 25% among supporters of the right and Popular Party voters.

3. A Union with more balanced powersharing and no ‘Directoirs’:

Spaniards seem to fear the emergence of a ‘Directoire’ made up of the larger European countries.

Only 13% agree that ‘Europe needs the strong countries, such as Germany, France and the UK to lead the European project and have more power and influence than the rest.’ On the contrary, 80% take the view that ‘all European countries are equal and should have the same influence and decisionmaking capacity.’

Again it is noteworthy that only 7% have no opinion on this subject and that, in contrast to the previous questions, the consensus on this point is so broad that there are no differences along lines of age or political persuasion.

4. And, in any event, a ‘deeper’ rather than a ‘wider’ Europe:

56% believe that Europe should be a ‘deeper’ entity (citizens’ Europe, social Europe, etc), compared with only 33% who think that it ‘is good for new countries to join, making Europe an increasingly larger entity.’

On the issue of whether Europe should be ‘larger’ or ‘deeper’, age is the key. Older interviewees (44%) want a larger Europe; younger ones (65%) want it to be ‘deeper’.

As for EU enlargement, it is considered, broadly speaking, as positive for Europe, Spain, Spain’s autonomous regions and the Union’s new members. However, almost a third of interviewees (30%) think that it may be negative or very negative for Spain and its autonomous regions. So, there is some doubt about enlargement.

5. The model for Europe.

To summarise, Spaniards want a Europe without ‘Directoires’, ie, without superpowers. This is the issue on which there is the broadest consensus.

Because on the other point over which agreement is general –the need for a ‘deeper’ and not only ‘larger’ Europe– younger people are more in favour than their elders.

In general the intergovernmental formula has more adherents, although agreement on this is less widespread; regionalists, for example, are noticeably less enthusiastic.

Lastly, Spaniards in the main prefer a Europe with a transatlantic connexion, cooperating with the US, although this view is less common among left-wing voters.

4. SPAIN’S LIMITED POWER IN THE EU

• Europessimism and fear of the emergence of a ‘Directory’ might have something to do with the small quota of power that Spaniards believe their country enjoys in the EU. Most people (60%) think that Spain’s influence in EU decisions is small, as opposed to 30% that think its influence is significant.

• This perception does not improve over time. On the contrary, in 1994 the percentage of Spaniards who thought Spain had little influence in the EU was 51%.

• Similarly, 40% would like to see Spain carry more weight in EU policies, even at the expense of receiving less economic aid from Brussels. On the other hand, 45% think that it is better to receive aid than have political clout.

One of the factors in this divide is the social background of the respondent. The first option, greater political weight at the expense of reduced aid, is defended to a greater extent among higher-income graduate interviewees.

• Perhaps as a corollary to this feeling of being an outsider, one out of two Spaniards, 49%, is uninterested in European politics, specifically in the forthcoming June elections for the European Parliament.

5. THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION

• The combination of Europeanism and pessimism is also prevalent when it comes to the matter of the European Constitution.

• Most Spaniards are in favour of the European Constitution. 62% would vote in favour, a percentage that has risen three points since October 2003.

• But at the same time most people (50%+) think it unlikely that member countries will reach an agreement on the Constitution this year, meaning that the Brussels failure is still on their minds.

• In passing, we should say that responsibility for the failure of the Brussels summit was fairly evenly distributed, although France was the country most mentioned (22%).

6. OPPOSITION TO THE WAR IN IRAQ

• The number of interviewees with an unfavourable or a highly unfavourable opinion of the US as a country is 60%. Evaluation of the US is more negative today than a year ago (52%) and remains at the same level as immediately after the war, as can be seen in our third Barometer, of May 2003.

• Out of eleven world leaders, George Bush receives the worst valuation (2.2 on a scale of 10.0). Pope John Paul II comes top (6.7), followed by President ‘Lula’ of Brazil (6.1) and Kofi Annan (6.0).

• With respect to the causes of the war, regardless of whether WMD were present or not, the majority, 62%, think that there were no sound reasons, such as the violation of human rights, for overthrowing the Saddam regime, as opposed to 30% which think there were.

The issue opens a division of opinion along lines of political allegiance. Spaniards who see themselves as conservatives or vote PP are more in favour, although even here, the ayes can only muster 52%.

• Finally, Spanish public opinion is opposed to Spanish troops remaining in Iraq on the present terms. Only 20% are in favour. 40% want them to return, although a similar proportion (39%) would like them to stay but as part of a multinational peacekeeping force under the direct orders of the United Nations.

(1)        Troops should remain as now, within a coalition led by the US, regardless of whether other countries join it.

(2)        Should remain, but only if other countries join the existing coalition.

(3)        Should remain but only if within a multinational force led by the UN.

(4)        Should return to Spain come what may.

There are no significant changes in the spread of these opinions compared with October 2003.

7. PESSIMISM OVER IRAQ’S FUTURE

• Turning now to the consequences of the war, 50% believe that the Iraqis are worse off now than they were under Saddam, while only 14% see things the other way round...

• ... this is because 88% of Spaniards regard the situation in Iraq as bad. Nearly half, 46%, see it as ‘very bad’.

Nor are they very hopeful about the future. Only 39% think that the situation will improve.

8. SENSATION OF PENDING THREAT AND INSECURITY IN SPAIN

• Spaniards feel very threatened by international terrorism (67%), the proliferation of arms of mass destruction (51%) and Islamic fundamentalism (40%).

The feeling of insecurity aroused by such threats has increased over time. International terrorism was very worrying for 45% of Spaniards at the end of 2002; it is now very worrying for 70%.

(%)	Nov-02	Feb-03	Oct-03	Feb-04
Very worrying	47	52	72	67
Worrying	38	37	23	23
Not worrying	6	4	4	8
DK/DA	9	7	1	1
	100	100	100	100